Fernando Mendoza Rookie Card Guide: Which of His First Topps Cards Matter

Fernando Mendoza was the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft, and Topps has built its 2026 football products around him. Topps' checklists for its 2026 NFL products list 131 different Fernando Mendoza cards across nine products, from a paper Flagship base card with several hundred thousand copies to a clear variation numbered to 10. Of those, 49 are autographs.

This is a map of all of it, ranked by how many copies of each card exist. Where a card has a serial number, the count is exact. Where it doesn't, we use the production estimates from our print-run breakdowns, and where we have no estimate we say so. Prices are recent sale prices as of mid-November 2026, rounded, for raw cards unless a grade is named.

Why Mendoza is the chase

Mendoza played three seasons at California, transferred to Indiana for 2025 and did not lose a game there. Indiana went 16-0 and won its first national title. He threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns against six interceptions, won the Heisman Trophy, the first in Indiana history, and was the offensive player of the game in the national championship.

The Las Vegas Raiders took him first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. He wears number 15.

His rookie season has barely started. He opened the year as the backup to Kirk Cousins and did not take a regular-season snap until Week 5, when he completed 6 of 8 passes for 48 yards late in a loss to New England on October 11. That one appearance is his whole NFL line as of November 12: one game, no starts, 48 yards, no touchdowns.

That changed on November 10. The Raiders, 4-5 at the time, traded Cousins to Minnesota at the deadline and named Mendoza the starter. His first two starts are scheduled against Seattle and Denver.

So this is a different kind of guide from our Cooper Flagg rookie card guide, which was written after a full award-winning season. Mendoza's cards were printed and priced before he had started an NFL game. What the counts below can tell you is how many of each card exist. What he does with the job is not in the data yet.

The short version

• 131 Mendoza cards in nine products. Six of the products are out. Topps Midnight releases November 13, Topps Chrome on November 18, and Stadium Club has no date yet. Those three hold 56 of the cards.
• 49 autographs. He signs alone on 44 and shares five with another rookie: three with Ty Simpson and two with Mike Washington Jr.
• 50,434 serial-numbered copies. That is every numbered parallel of every card added together, if he appears in every parallel our data lists. Of those, 15,287 are numbered autographs.
• 95 one-of-ones, 39 of them signed.
• The scarcest we can count: the Flagship Clear Variation of his base card, numbered to 10.
• The most common: the Flagship base card, #301, at up to about 820,000 copies before a single parallel.

Two cautions on those totals. Topps' odds sheets carry a note that a player on the checklist is not guaranteed to appear in every parallel, so the numbered totals are ceilings. And Stadium Club has no parallels listed yet, so its 16 cards add nothing to the numbered total. Both are covered near the end.

What counts as a Mendoza rookie card

Every Mendoza card in a 2026 NFL product carries the rookie tag on Topps' checklist. The cards most collectors mean by "rookie card" are the base cards, the ones with a regular card number in the main set. Mendoza has 10 of those across the nine products, because Bowman has a paper card and a chrome card. Heritage and Holiday each add a Chrome version of the base card, which makes 12.

His 2025 Bowman University cards show him in an Indiana uniform and came out before the draft. They are pre-rookie cards, and they get their own section below. A handful of promo cards (four from the 2026 National and one in a Topps Collector Kit) are left out of every count here, and so is anything not made by Topps.

The base rookies, product by product

Numbered copies is the sum of every serial-numbered parallel of that one card, with a one-of-one counted as one. The last column is our estimate of the copies with no serial number, filled in only where we have worked the product's odds.

Notes on each, most common first:

Flagship #301 is the common one, by a wide margin. Our Flagship breakdown puts each base card at up to about 820,000 copies across hobby, Jumbo, Value, Hanger, Mega and Fat Packs, and four more formats add to that with no figure. Behind it sit 5,096 numbered copies, led by the Gold /2026 and a Pink Holo Foil /1,200, and unnumbered foil parallels that run from about 10,100 (Rainbow Foil) down to about 72 (Aqua Rainbow Foil). A raw base copy sells for about $1 to $2. A PSA 10 has sold for about $400, on four sales. The Gold /2026 has been selling raw for about $55 to $60.

Holiday #151 is the one exact count. Our Holiday breakdown found two Rookies cards in every pack, which works out to 249,576 copies of each. The unnumbered parallels add about 22,400 more, and the 203 numbered copies run from the Purple Glitter Holiday /99 down to the Golden Glitter one-of-one. Raw copies sell for about $2.

Heritage #272 has a floor, not a full count. Our Heritage breakdown has roughly 34,000 copies of each base card in hobby packs and 130,000 to 150,000 in Value packs. Mega Boxes and Fat Packs are not counted, because Topps doesn't list their pack sizes. The Chrome version of #272 is far smaller: roughly 9,100 to 9,300 copies, roughly 2,400 to 2,500 Refractors and 406 numbered. A raw base copy sells for about $3.

Bowman has two base cards. Our Bowman breakdown puts the paper #101 at 118,000 copies or more and the chrome BCV-101 at about 51,000. The chrome card also has about 5,500 Speckle Refractors, about 7,700 Mojo Refractors from Mega Boxes and 4,597 numbered copies across 46 numbered parallels, the longest ladder of any released Mendoza card. All in, that is about 68,800 chrome copies. The paper card sells for about $1.50 raw and the chrome card for about $3.50 to $4.

Inception #151 comes to about 1,740. Our Inception breakdown has about 1,140 base copies of each rookie, about 129 of the unnumbered Green and 468 numbered copies, from the Purple /150 to the Inception one-of-one. Raw copies have been selling for about $50, on few sales.

Midnight #21 comes to roughly 1,100 to 1,270. Our Midnight breakdown puts the base card at about 420 to 560 copies, fewer than its 450 numbered copies and its unnumbered parallels (Zodiac, Moon Beam, Hourglass and Molten Mercury, about 240 to 260 together) combined. The product releases November 13, so there are no sales to quote.

Bowman Sapphire BCV-101 comes to about 980. Our Bowman Sapphire breakdown has about 860 base copies of each card, a figure it calls a ceiling, and 121 numbered. Of the base rookies we can count, it is the scarcest. We could not find a public sale of the base card.

Chrome #351 has no estimate yet. Topps has not posted the odds sheet. What the checklist settles is in our Chrome Football guide: 4,766 numbered copies of each base card across 69 numbered parallels on eight ladders, with 12 unnumbered refractor versions on top. Topps Chrome is a mass-market product and the plain base card will run far past the numbered figure.

The variations and short prints

These share a card number with a base card and are easy to miss in a listing.

The Golden Mirror is the one to know. Every Flagship base card has one, it carries no serial number, and the rookies were printed far shorter than the veterans: about 25 copies of each rookie across every format, and only about 3.5 of those in hobby and Jumbo packs. That makes an unnumbered Mendoza Golden Mirror about as scarce as a card numbered to 25. We found one clear public sale of his, at $1,425 in late August.

The Heritage Black and White Image Variation is the same kind of card, about 39 or 40 copies with no number on it. The regular Heritage Image Variation is the opposite case. It is a true variation, with Mendoza bareheaded instead of helmeted, but at about 2,750 copies it is more common than every numbered parallel of his base card put together. It has been selling raw for about $60 to $90. Our Heritage variations guide shows how to tell them apart.

The Holiday Back Variation is called a short print, and at about 25,000 copies it is one only next to the 249,576 base cards. Chrome adds four more Mendoza variations on November 18: Team Camo, Lightboard Logo, Image and Chrome Etch. The Image Variation has 561 numbered copies and the Chrome Etch has 90, and the unnumbered versions wait on the odds sheet.

A few inserts are scarce enough to belong in the same conversation:

• Treasured Talent (Bowman Sapphire): about 32 copies with no number, plus a Red /5 and a one-of-one, about 38 in all.
• Night Night, Dream Land, Twilight and Celestial Roots (Midnight): about 65 copies of each card, with a one-of-one Black Light behind each. Mendoza is in all four.
• 1957 Rookie Variation (Flagship): about 100 copies.
• Launch and Rookie Short Prints (Inception): about 145 of each.
• Bowman Spotlights, Crystallized, Anime, Etched In Glass and GPK (Bowman): about 150, 100, 200, 200 and 225 unnumbered copies. Crystallized has 81 numbered copies behind it, for about 181 in all.

Bowman's Rookie Red RC Logo Variation is not on that list. It is labeled like a short print and comes to about 20,700 copies.

The main rookie autographs

These are the signed cards most collectors will run into, one or two from each released product, sorted by how many exist.

The Bowman Chrome autograph is where the supply is. Its base version alone comes to about 1,240 copies, more than the base version of any other released Mendoza autograph, and its 1,490 numbered copies sit across 25 numbered versions. It is also one of the cheapest of the group: the base autograph has been selling raw for about $400 to $450.

Flagship has the two biggest paper autographs. The base Flagship First Signatures has been selling for about $500 to $600 raw, and two PSA 10 copies have sold, for $3,900 and about $5,000. The 1991 Topps Rookie Autograph has been selling for about $450 to $850, on six sales. The Rookie Real One Autograph is a different card on count: about 217 unnumbered copies and 190 numbered, about 407 in all. It has been selling raw for about $625 to $725, with the last sale in late October.

Heritage splits the other way from most products. The Real One Rookie Autograph is the most common signed card in the set, about 870 to 900 copies, and most of it came out of retail packs. The Heritage Rookie Autograph with no border comes to about 260 to 270. We could not find a public sale of either Mendoza card.

Holiday's Rookie Autograph, about 540 base copies and 41 numbered, has been selling for about $270 to $385. The Inception Rookie Autograph has one public sale so far, at about $1,000 on November 10.

The scarcity table

The scarce cards and the rest of his autographs in the six released products, ranked by total copies of that one card across every version, scarcest first. "Numbered" is the serial-numbered sum. "No serial" is our estimate for the unnumbered versions. Where it says none listed, our data shows no unnumbered version and the count is serial-numbered only.

Notes on the table:

• Rank 1. The Bowman dual has a Red Refractor /5 and a SuperFractor in our data, and our breakdown puts the dual and triple autographs in single or low double digits per card for the base version. It is the scarcest signed Mendoza card in a released product either way.
• Rank 10. The Rookie Premiere Autographs come only in Green Ink and Red Ink. Topps prints no runs for them. The odds put them at about 51 and 5 copies, which is how a /50 and a /5 would look.
• Rank 13. Dear Santa's base version comes to about 48 copies, which is what a /50 would look like if it turns out to be numbered.
• Ranks 17, 20 and 22, numbered only. For these, our data lists only numbered versions. The Topps Autograph Rookie Patch and NFL Rookies Material Autograph both start at a base version numbered to 99.
• Ranks 21 and 25. The two Inception patch autographs don't fill their runs. Our breakdown found only about 70 to 85 percent of each numbered tier in boxes, and the Jumbo Relic Purple /150 at about a third. Read both totals as the most there could be. The Jumbo Relic base version, with no number, is about five copies.
• The Inception book with Mike Washington Jr. is left off. Its base version is listed at /49, but the odds put only about 18 of each card in boxes, so we treat the run as unsettled.

Midnight, out this week

Topps Midnight releases November 13 with 14 Mendoza cards, more than any other player in the set. Seven are autographs, and he signs in all six rookie autograph sets and in the Base Autographs.

Rookie Horizon Signatures is the autograph of the product, and it would be his most common Midnight signature by a wide margin. Read the numbered column with care. Our breakdown found that the big parallels were not made for every signer: only about a third of the Base Autographs signers have a Morning /125, Twilight /99 or Dusk /75, for one. The sheet doesn't say which signers.

At the low end the ladders are full. If Mendoza has every Black Light and Witching Hour, that is seven one-of-one autographs and seven autographs numbered to three, 28 signed copies numbered to three or fewer. With his base card and six inserts he has 14 Black Lights across the set.

Chrome and Stadium Club, still to come

Topps Chrome Football releases November 18 with 26 Mendoza entries on Topps' checklist, the most of any rookie in the set. One of them is a Fanatics Authentics redemption, not a card. The numbered counts are already set:

The Rookie Variation Autograph is his main Topps Chrome autograph, and its ladder is long: 52 numbered versions and 6,568 numbered copies, more than four times the Bowman Chrome autograph's 1,490, before the unnumbered base autograph is counted. Our Chrome guide notes that not every signer lands in every parallel, so treat that as a ceiling. He also has seven short-print inserts whose only numbered version is a SuperFractor: Day 1, Game Genies, Glass Canvas, Kaiju, Radiating Rookies, Ultra Violet and Vibes.

Across all 26 entries the Chrome ladders add up to 21,332 numbered Mendoza copies, close to the 24,973 in the six released products put together. How many unnumbered copies sit behind them is the question the odds sheet will answer, and we'll add it here.

Stadium Club has 16 Mendoza cards on Topps' checklist and no release date: base card #207, six autographs (Rookie Autographs, Concentration, Design Variation, Lonestar, Polaroids and a Rookie Cosigners card with Mike Washington Jr.) and nine inserts. No parallels are listed yet, so there is nothing to count.

His Bowman University cards

Mendoza had Topps cards before he was a Raider. Three 2025 Bowman University products show him at Indiana, and they came out during his Heisman season. Topps' checklists do not tag them as rookie cards, and collectors treat them as pre-rookie or prospect cards.

That is 14 cards and eight autographs. One of the eight is a dual in Bowman University Best with Lee Beebe Jr.

The two that matter are in Bowman Chrome University: the base card, #109, and the Chrome Prospects Autograph, BCA-FME. We have not worked the odds for any of the three products, so there is no production estimate here, and our data lists only part of the Bowman Chrome University parallel ladder, so we are not quoting a numbered total for it either. What we can count: the Sapphire version of #109 has 166 numbered copies, from a Yellow Sapphire /75 to a Padparadscha one-of-one, and the Bowman University Best base card, #16, has 1,054 numbered copies across 12 numbered parallels.

Prices are the useful comparison. The Bowman Chrome University #109 sells for about $3.50 to $4 raw, about the same as his NFL Bowman Chrome card, and about $120 to $140 in a PSA 10. The Bowman University Best #16 runs about $3 to $6 raw and about $135 in a PSA 10. The college autograph, BCA-FME, has been selling raw for about $290 to $450, and three PSA 10 copies have sold for about $800 to $900, the latest in early September.

Put that next to the Bowman Chrome Rookie Autograph in a Raiders uniform at about $400 to $450. The college autograph and the NFL autograph are selling for about the same money, and we have a count for only one of them.

A buyer's map by scarcity

These tiers are sorted by how many copies exist, which is the part that doesn't change. Prices move, and the ones quoted here are from mid-November 2026, before his first start.

Six figures of supply: the paper base cards. Flagship #301 (up to about 820,000), Holiday #151 (249,576), Heritage #272 (at least 164,000) and Bowman paper #101 (118,000 or more). These sell for about $1 to $4. They are the cards to own if you just want a Mendoza rookie, and condition matters more than scarcity at this level.

Tens of thousands: Bowman Chrome and the common variations. Bowman Chrome BCV-101 (about 68,800 with its refractors), the Holiday Back Variation (about 25,000) and Bowman's Red RC Logo Variation (about 20,700). Topps Chrome #351 will land in this tier or the one above once the odds are out.

Thousands: Heritage Chrome, the Heritage Image Variation and the big numbered colors. Heritage Chrome #272 (roughly 9,100 to 9,300), the Image Variation (about 2,750) and the largest numbered parallels, like the Flagship Gold /2026. The Bowman Chrome autograph, at about 2,810 copies, is the only signed card up here.

About 1,000 to 2,000: the premium base cards. Inception #151 (about 1,740), Midnight #21 (roughly 1,100 to 1,270) and Bowman Sapphire BCV-101 (about 980). Flagship's First Signatures and 1991 Topps Rookie Autographs sit here by count too, at about 1,085 and 1,350.

Hundreds, signed: most of his rookie autographs. The Inception Rookie Autograph (about 940), Heritage's Real One (about 870 to 976), Holiday (about 581), Heritage Rookie Autographs (about 417 to 427), the Flagship Rookie Real One (about 407) and the Silver Pack chrome autograph (about 444).

About 100 to 250, signed. The Bowman Sapphire rookie autograph (about 139), the Flagship rookie patch autograph (140), Heritage's Chrome autograph (roughly 152), the Flagship dual with Simpson (about 154) and Inception's Silver Signings (101).

Under 100. The Dear Santa autograph relic (about 83), the Sapphire Selections autograph (about 80), Inception's Genesis (about 91) and Commissioner Combo (about 26), the Heritage autograph relics (about 24 and 25), and the unnumbered oddities: the Golden Mirror (about 25) and the Heritage Black and White Image Variation (about 39 or 40).

Ten or so, or fewer. The Clear Variation /10, the Bowman dual with Simpson, and the 95 one-of-ones.

One thing the counts make plain: unnumbered does not mean common. The Golden Mirror, the Black and White Image Variation, the Commissioner Combo and the base Inception Jumbo Relic Autograph all carry no serial number and all have fewer copies than numbered cards in the same box.

Every product, by the numbers

Mendoza cards, autographs and total numbered copies in each 2026 NFL product, in release order.

The six released products hold 75 of the cards, 32 of the autographs and 24,973 of the numbered copies. Chrome alone nearly matches that, because he is in 16 of its inserts and most of them have long ladders.

What these counts leave out

• Stadium Club. No parallels are listed yet, so its 16 cards count toward the 131 and add nothing to the numbered total.
• Cards with no ladder at all. Of the 131 cards, 21 have no parallels listed in our data: the 16 in Stadium Club, Chrome's Team Camo and Lightboard Logo variations and its redemption, and Bowman's Etched In Glass and Red RC Logo Variation.
• Topps' note on parallels. A player on the checklist is not guaranteed to be in every parallel. The 50,434 figure assumes he is, and our Midnight and Inception breakdowns both found autograph ladders that don't cover every signer.
• Estimates are for the set, not the player. An estimate like "about 314 copies" is the average for every card in that set. Topps does not publish per-player counts.
• Formats our breakdowns skip. The Flagship base figure leaves out Walmart Mega, Fanatics Value, Bulk packs and Kids Mega. The Heritage base figure leaves out Mega Boxes and Fat Packs.
• Printing plates. Flagship's printing plates are counted as one one-of-one per card.
• Topps NOW and promos. Mendoza's 2026 NFL Topps NOW card, sold on demand, has a print run of 126,581 per Topps' product page. It, the four cards from the 2026 National and the Topps Collector Kit card are not in any count here.
• The Chrome redemption. One of Chrome's 26 entries is a Fanatics Authentics redemption that lists 90 players.

We'll update this piece when the Chrome odds sheet posts, as Midnight and Stadium Club release, and as prices move once he has started games. Odds are Topps' intended configuration at the time of production, and actual contents can vary.

Every checklist and parallel is on the release pages linked above, and you can track what you own in HobbyMonitor Collections.

---

This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: November 2026