2026 Topps Holiday Football: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Holiday Football released October 23 as a Mega Box product, and Topps posted the odds sheet the day before. The checklist has been up since September 28. The sheet runs 95 lines in a single Mega Box column, with odds per pack and no print runs, and it lists nearly everything twice: once for the Base set (#1 to #150) and once for the Rookies (#151 to #200), the same split Topps' checklist uses. Both halves point to the same run. The one-of-one lines on the Base side and on the Rookies side each multiply out to exactly 6,239,400 packs, or 623,940 boxes. From there the sheet checks every print run, gives a count for the cards with no serial number, and shows how Topps seeds a rookie against a veteran.

The box

Topps' product page lists one format, the Mega Box: 10 cards per pack, 10 packs per box and 20 boxes to a sealed case. The box itself tells you to look for Base Holiday Variation SPs.

Here's what an average box holds, going by the sheet's odds:

The four inserts each fall 1:40 packs, so together they come to one a box. The Chrome lines add up to 0.997 a box. The Holiday Spirit Variations (1:250 packs on the Base side and 1:1,000 on the Rookies side) come to one in 200 packs, one per case on average: 31,197 Spirit cards across the run, the same as the number of cases. An autograph of any kind falls about once every 95 packs, about two a case.

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 15 sections, and every section built on the base card comes in a Base version and a Rookies version.

• Base, 150 cards, from #1 Marvin Harrison Jr. to #150 Leonard Williams.
• Rookies, 50 cards, from #151 Fernando Mendoza to #200 Dillon Thieneman. It opens with Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, Carson Beck, Cade Klubnik, Cole Payton and Taylen Green (#151 to #158), and the class also has Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, Jordyn Tyson, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs.
• Base Chrome Variation (150) and Rookies Chrome Variation (50). The Rookies Chrome list matches the paper Rookies card for card. The Base Chrome list uses the same numbers but has 14 different players: #134 is Harrison Butker on paper and Travis Kelce in Chrome, #144 is Justin Fields and Geno Smith, and #40 is Woody Marks and Danielle Hunter, among others.
• Holiday Back Variation Short Prints, 40 Base and 10 Rookies.
• Holiday Spirit Variation, 40 Base and 10 Rookies. The Base side is the same 40 players as the Holiday Back SPs, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II and Jayden Daniels among them. The rookies don't overlap: the Holiday Back SPs have Mendoza, Simpson, Allar, Beck, Love, Price, Tate, Tyson, KC Concepcion and David Bailey, and the Holiday Spirit Variations have Nussmeier, Klubnik, Payton, Green, Zavion Thomas, Kenyon Sadiq, Eli Stowers, Reese, Downs and Thieneman.
• Four inserts of 25 cards each, all veterans: Hidden Elf (elves hidden in the base design, per Topps), Snow Globe Moments (new this year, per Topps), Deck the Fields and Frozen Fields.
• Base Autographs, 94 of the 150 Base players, among them Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy and George Kittle. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Mahomes aren't on it.
• Rookie Autographs, 40 of the 50 Rookies. The ten without one are Caleb Douglas, Omar Cooper Jr., Denzel Boston, Skyler Bell, Antonio Williams, Eli Stowers, Rueben Bain Jr., David Bailey, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs.
• Dear Santa, 29 rookie autograph relics that Topps lays out as a letter to Santa, with the signature where the wish list goes. Two of its signers, Max Klare and Zachariah Branch, have no base card.

That's 136 different signers.

Base and Rookies: why the sheet lists everything twice

Topps gives the Base and the Rookies their own line on every tier, and the Rookies odds run about three times the Base odds. That's just the card count: the Rookies are 50 cards against 150, so the same per-card seeding makes a Rookies line three times longer (four times on the variations, which are 40 Base cards against 10 Rookies). Divide each line over its own cards and the two come out the same:

So a rookie isn't seeded any shorter than a veteran in the same tier. The Rookies odds only look longer because fewer cards share them. The two sides differ in three places:

• The base card itself. The sheet puts two Rookies in every pack, 249,576 copies of each. The Base set has no line of its own and comes to about 287,000 of each card, worked out further down.
• Five numbered Rookies lines (Purple Glitter Holiday, 25th, Red Metallic Holiday, Menorah and Green Glitter Holiday) put their whole run in packs. The Base versions, and nearly every other numbered line, come to about 96 percent.
• The autographs. Each Rookie Autographs signer comes to about 540 copies of the base version, against about 388 for each Base Autographs signer.

The Base parallels

Odds per pack for the 150 Base cards, with each tier's print run and the copies at 6,239,400 packs:

Every tier is spread over the same 150 cards, so if the runs are right, each run times its odds should come out about the same. The Purple is 99 times 435, or 43,065. The Warm White Lights comes to 43,100, the 25th 43,125, the Menorah 43,104, the Red Metallic 43,180 and both /5 lines 43,210, all within 0.4 percent. A wrong run would stick out: a Menorah at /10 would come to 53,880. So the runs hold, and the Menorah is a /8.

The 1:3 Glitter Holiday is short enough that rounding alone could put it anywhere from about 11,900 to 16,600 copies of each card.

The Rookies parallels

Odds per pack for the 50 Rookies:

Here run times odds splits into two groups. The Purple (99 times 1,260 is 124,740), the 25th (124,800), the Red Metallic (124,790), the Menorah (124,792) and the Green Glitter (124,790) all match the Golden Glitter one-of-one at 124,788, so each of those runs is in packs in full. The Warm White Lights (129,450) and the Red Lights (130,530) sit about 4 percent higher, like the Base lines.

The Stocking Stuffer lines look numbered. Neither the sheet nor the checklist gives them a run, but on both sides their counts line up with numbered tiers. The Gingerbread Man comes to exactly the same cards as the Chrome Orange Refractor /25 (3,617 Base and 1,204 Rookies), and the Candycane to exactly the same as the Chrome Black Refractor /10 (1,445 and 480). The Holly comes to about 58 of each card and the Stocking about 3.9, which at the same 96.5 percent share the numbered lines show would be a /60 and a /4. The Santa Bag comes to 143 Base and 46 Rookies cards, just under one per card; if it's numbered, that's a one-of-one with a few left out of packs. Until serial numbers turn up, treat those runs as fits, not facts.

The Chrome ladders

Every Chrome color comes in a Refractor and a Sparkle version at the same odds, so each color is two runs. The sheet has no line for a plain Chrome card, so the Refractor and the Sparkle are the commonest Chrome versions.

Base Chrome Variation, 150 cards:

Rookies Chrome Variation, 50 cards:

The runs check out the same way. On the Base side, run times odds runs from 43,050 (the Blue) to 43,210 (the Red), within 0.4 percent. On the Rookies side it runs from 129,300 to 130,530, within 1 percent, and three times the Base figures. A numbered Chrome card of any color falls about once every 39 packs, or one every 3.9 boxes.

The variations

The Holiday Back SPs are about a tenth as common as the base card: about 25,000 of each Rookies Holiday Back against 249,576 of each Rookies base card. The Base side's 1:6 is short enough to cover anything from about 24,000 to 28,400 per card, so the two sides are likely seeded the same. A box holds about two. The Holiday Spirit Variations are about 40 times scarcer than the Holiday Backs, about 624 of each card on both sides.

The inserts

Each insert comes to about 156,000 cards over the run, about 6,240 of each card. Each one's only parallel is a FoilFractor one-of-one, and 25 times 249,576 is exactly 6,239,400: all 25 FoilFractors of every insert are in packs. The Drake Maye at the bottom of this piece is a Frozen Fields numbered 1/1.

The autographs

Odds per pack, with each tier's print run.

Base Autographs, 94 signers:

Rookie Autographs, 40 signers:

Dear Santa, 29 signers:

The Golden Glitter lines on Base Autographs (94 times 66,377 is 6,239,438) and Dear Santa (29 times 215,152 is 6,239,408) put every one-of-one in packs. The Rookie Autographs Golden Glitter doesn't fit 40 signers: 40 times 159,985 is 6,399,400, 2.6 percent too many packs, while 39 times 159,985 is 6,239,415. With all 40, the line would read 1:155,985. So one of the 40 rookies looks to have no Golden Glitter autograph in packs, which Topps' note on the sheet allows for: a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel.

The Green Glitter /5 autographs check out: 464 Base Autographs in packs, 4.94 per signer, and 191 Rookie Autographs, 4.8 per signer (4.9 if 39 signers have it).

All told the odds put about 65,900 autographs in packs: about 40,200 Base Autographs, 23,200 Rookie Autographs and 2,400 Dear Santas. A Dear Santa of any version falls about once every 260 boxes, about one every 13 cases, and each signer comes to about 83 copies across the four versions.

How many packs the sheet covers

The one-of-one lines settle it, and the Base and Rookies halves agree:

150 times 41,596 and 50 times 124,788 are both exactly 6,239,400, which is why every Rookies one-of-one line is exactly three times the Base line. The five full Rookies lines say the same: 4,950 Purples times 1,260 is 6,237,000, 1,250 25ths times 4,992 is 6,240,000, 500 Red Metallics times 12,479 is 6,239,500, 400 Menorahs times 15,599 is 6,239,600, and 250 Green Glitters times 24,958 is 6,239,500.

So the run is 6,239,400 packs. Allowing for rounding, the FoilFractor lines allow 6,239,388 to 6,239,412 packs and the Dear Santa line at least 6,239,394. That leaves 6,239,400 or 6,239,410 in whole boxes, and only 6,239,400 makes whole 20-box cases. That's 623,940 boxes, 31,197 cases, and at 10 cards a pack about 62.4 million cards (a little under, since the box notes that packs with a special insert may hold fewer cards). The Rookies line ties in neatly: two a pack is 12,478,800 Rookies, or 249,576 of each of the 50, the same figure as the FoilFractor odds, since both are the run divided by 25.

This sheet rounds to the nearest whole pack. At 6,239,400 packs, every long line works out to a whole number of cards only that way. The Base Menorah is 1,158 cards, one every 5,388.1 packs, and the sheet prints 1:5,388; rounded up, no whole number of cards would print as 1:5,388. The Dear Santa base line is the same: 1,397 cards, one every 4,466.3 packs, printed 1:4,466. So the counts in this piece are central figures, good to about half a step of the odds either way.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

At 6,239,400 packs every one-of-one line is complete except the Rookie Autographs Golden Glitter (39 of 40), but most numbered tiers come to about 96 percent of their run. Odds per pack put this many in packs:

On paper the /99 is the Purple Glitter Holiday, the /50 the Warm White Lights, the /25 the 25th, the /10 the Red Metallic and the /8 the Menorah. Counting both the Refractors and the Sparkles, 159,838 of the 165,600 numbered Chrome cards below the SuperFractor are in packs, 96.5 percent. The Base Autographs tiers run 96.9 to 98.7 percent, the Rookie Autographs 93.5 to 95.9 percent across all 40 signers (95.9 to 98.4 percent if the signer missing from the Golden Glitter line skips the other tiers too), and the Dear Santa Glitter and Red Glitter 96.3 and 95.5 percent.

The one-of-ones and the five full Rookies lines rule out a smaller run. Either about 3.5 percent of most numbered runs stays out of packs, or a few players skip each tier, which Topps' note on the sheet allows for.

The cards with no print run

Copies of each card at 6,239,400 packs, Base and Rookies side by side:

The four inserts come to about 6,240 of each card (1:40, 25 cards each), and the Dear Santa base version to about 48 of each card (1:4,466, 29 cards), 96 percent of a /50 if it turns out to be numbered.

The Base set has no line of its own, so its count is what's left of each 10-card pack: 10 cards, less the two Rookies, less about 1.09 cards a pack from every other line on the sheet (0.67 paper parallels, 0.21 variations, 0.10 Chrome, 0.10 inserts and 0.01 autographs). That leaves about 6.91 Base cards a pack, about 43.1 million in all, or about 287,000 of each of the 150 (283,000 to 291,000 allowing for the rounding on the short lines). So a Base card is about 15 percent more common than a Rookies card: a given veteran turns up about once in 22 packs, a given rookie once in 25. Base and Rookies cards together make up 89 percent of the 62.4 million cards.

The 1:3, 1:6 and 1:8 lines are the loosest. Rounding alone could put the Base Glitter Holiday anywhere from about 11,900 to 16,600 per card and the Rookies Glitter Holiday from 14,700 to 16,600, so the two could well be seeded the same, as nearly every other line is.

The rarest pulls

The longest odds on the sheet are the four FoilFractor lines at 1:249,576 each: 25 one-of-ones per insert, about one in 25,000 boxes for a given insert's FoilFractor and about one in 6,240 boxes for any of the 100. Next is the Dear Santa Golden Glitter at 1:215,152 (29 cards, about one in 21,500 boxes), then the Rookie Autographs Golden Glitter at 1:159,985 (40 signers on Topps' checklist, 39 cards by the odds, about one in 16,000 boxes), the Rookies Stocking Stuffer Santa Bag at 1:135,639, and the Rookies Golden Glitter and Rookies Chrome SuperFractor at 1:124,788 each (50 cards apiece, about one in 12,500 boxes).

Across the product, the one-of-one lines put 662 cards in packs: 200 Golden Glitter Holiday base cards, 200 Chrome SuperFractors, 100 FoilFractors, 133 Golden Glitter autographs and 29 Golden Glitter Dear Santas. That's one every 9,425 packs, about one every 940 boxes, or one every 47 cases. The 189 Santa Bags would add to that if they turn out to be one-of-ones.

What to watch

The things we're watching: the first serial numbers on the Stocking Stuffer parallels (the counts fit a Gingerbread Man /25 and a Candycane /10, and a Holly /60, Stocking /4 and Santa Bag 1/1 at the same share as the numbered lines) and on the Dear Santa base version; which rookie, if any, has no Golden Glitter autograph; whether a plain Chrome Variation exists, since the sheet starts at the Refractor; and why five Rookies lines put their whole run in packs when nearly every other numbered line comes to about 96 percent. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2026 Topps Holiday Football release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

---

This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: October 2026