2026 Topps Inception Football: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Inception Football released November 6. Topps' odds sheet runs 108 lines in two columns, Hobby and FDI (First Day Issue), with odds per pack and no print runs. The box says one pack to a box, so those are box odds too. The base and rookie color ladders sit at the same odds in both columns, and they agree on about 58,000 boxes in all. The FDI-only lines put about 1,800 of those in FDI, which leaves about 56,000 hobby boxes (about 7,000 cases), roughly 393,000 hobby cards. That's the count behind the odds, not a confirmed print run. From there the sheet backs up most numbered runs, gives a count for every card with no print run, turns up a handful of lines that don't fit, and points to a /100 run on the Silver Signings base, which a serial number confirms.

The box

Both boxes hold one 7-card pack, and there are 8 boxes to a case. A hobby box holds one autograph. An FDI box, the one pictured above with the First Day Issue stamp, holds one FDI patch autograph /22, one more autograph, two FDI parallels /18 and two more parallels. Autographs may be redemptions, and the box notes that packs with a special insert may hold fewer cards. Topps' product page doesn't list any of this.

Add up the sheet's lines and here's what an average box holds:

The base-card row is what's left of the 7 cards after every other line, so it's an upper limit if some boxes hold fewer cards. The FDI rows tie out to the box: its two FDI parallels and one FDI patch autograph are set, and the sheet's other lines come to about 1.9 more parallels and about 1.06 more autographs, against the two and one the box promises. The sheet prints the base FDI at 1:1 and the rookie FDI at 1:2, so the 1:1 is a floor; the two per box split about 1.5 base and 0.5 rookie.

The hobby column doesn't tie out to its box. Its autograph lines add up to about 1.46 a box, not the one a hobby box promises. The Rookie Autographs alone, counting every color, come to 0.75 a box. Topps' sheet doesn't explain the gap, and its note says actual contents and odds may vary.

By set, a hobby box holds a Rookie Autograph of some version about three boxes in four, a Rookie Autograph Variation about one box in 3.2, a Rookie Jumbo Relic Autograph one in 5.8 and a Provenance Patch Autograph one in 11. The rest run longer: Genesis one in 28, Dawn of Greatness one in 40, Immersion one in 51, Inception Silver Signings one in 59, Charged Particles one in 97, Dual Rookie Autographs one in 107, NFL Draft Commissioner Combo one in 142, the Dual Rookie Relic Autographed Book one in 159 and NFL First Milestone one in 456.

The checklist

The base set is 150 veterans across all 32 teams, three to six a team, from Michael Wilson (#1) to Deebo Samuel (#150). The 50 rookies are #151 to #200, from Fernando Mendoza (#151) and Ty Simpson (#152) to Jermod McCoy (#200), with Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs among them. Topps' sheet gives the rookies their own ladder, so they're counted as their own set here.

The two inserts are Launch and Rookie Short Prints, 25 rookies each, the same 25 names in the same order from Carson Beck (#1) to Sonny Styles (#25).

There are 273 signed cards from 93 signers:

• Rookie Autographs, 46 rookies, and Provenance Patch Autographs, 43.
• Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs, 39 rookies, built around a large round window of player-worn memorabilia on the Carson Beck shown below.
• Genesis, 24 rookies.
• Rookie Autograph Variations and Dawn of Greatness Autographs, 20 each. Dawn of Greatness is all retired players: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Dan Marino and Aaron Donald among them.
• Immersion Autographs, 16 young veterans, from Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix to Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers.
• NFL Draft Commissioner Combo, 16 rookies.
• Charged Particles, 12 veterans, among them Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, Puka Nacua and Cam Ward.
• NFL First Milestone Autograph Relics, 12 rookies. The sheet lists them as redemptions.
• Inception Silver Signings, 10 rookies.
• Dual Rookie Relic Autographed Book, eight cards of two rookies each, such as Mendoza with Mike Washington Jr.
• Dual Rookie Autographs, seven cards of two teammates each, such as Beck with Love and Simpson with Max Klare.

Simpson, Tate, Lemon and Love are each in 13 of the 17 sets. Mendoza, Beck and Jordyn Tyson are in 11.

The base and rookie ladders

Odds per box, the same in both columns. Topps' sheet prints no runs, so the runs are the ones on the release page, and the last two columns are the check: what each line would read if its whole run were spread over 58,125 boxes (the top of the range worked out below), against what the sheet prints.

Every numbered color from Purple to Sky lands on its printed odds once you round, on both ladders. A wrong run would stick out: a /15 Orange would read 1:26, and a /30 Blue would read 1:13 on the base set. So the runs hold. The Fernando Mendoza above is a Hot Pink numbered 01/35, and the Drake Maye below a Gold Electricity numbered 01/50.

The Inception one-of-ones fall a little short of their sets. The odds put about 148 of the 150 base Inceptions and 48 of the 50 rookie Inceptions in boxes. The FDI /18 lines are FDI only: 2,700 base and 900 rookie cards over about 1,800 FDI boxes is 1.5 and 0.5 a box, which the sheet prints as 1:1 and 1:2.

Counting every color, there are 468 numbered copies of each base and rookie card, 450 from Purple to Inception plus the 18 FDIs. A numbered base or rookie parallel turns up about 1.5 times a box, and FDI boxes, about 3 percent of the total, get the same share of them.

The Green has no serial number listed. At 1:3 on the base set it comes to about 129 copies of each card (anywhere from about 110 to 155, since 1:3 is a short line), and at 1:9 on the rookies, also about 129 (122 to 137).

The inserts

Same odds in both columns. Each base version comes to about 3,630 cards, about 145 copies of each, and one of the two turns up about every eight boxes.

The Alpha parallel (the odds sheet lists it as "Launch Inception" and "Rookie Short Prints Inception") has no serial number listed. Its odds put about 23 cards in boxes for each set's 25 rookies, about 0.9 of each card. That's the same share the one-of-one lines show across the sheet, so the Alpha may be a one-of-one. Topps doesn't say.

The autographs

Odds per box, hobby first, then FDI. On every autograph line except Genesis, the Commissioner Combo and the Dual Book (which run at the same odds in both columns), the FDI odds are about 1.44 times the hobby odds, so FDI boxes get about 2 percent of each, a little less than their share of boxes. The counts are cards in boxes across both formats, worked out at about 56,300 hobby and 1,800 FDI boxes.

The two big rookie sets:

These are the cleanest lines on the sheet. Every numbered tier fills 97 to 104 percent of its run, which is about as close as the rounding allows; a 1:25 line, for one, can only be read to within about 2 percent. For the Rookie Autographs Gold: 56,300 hobby boxes divided by 25 is about 2,250, and 1,800 FDI boxes divided by 36 is 50, for about 2,300 of the 2,300. That confirms the total box count from the base ladder. The hobby and FDI split comes from the FDI lines instead: FDI is so small a share that the autograph lines come out within about 1 percent whatever the split.

The two patch sets:

Both sets fill only about 70 to 85 percent of each run, rising as the run drops. The Orange, Sky and Inception lines point to about 32 or 33 of the 39 Jumbo signers and 35 to 38 of the 43 Provenance signers carrying the full ladder. Topps' note on the sheet allows for it: a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel. The two FDI /22 lines fall 1:2 each, the one FDI patch autograph in every FDI box.

The Rookie Jumbo base version, with no number, is rarer than most of its colors: about 201 cards, about five of each, as scarce as the Sky /5. The Jumbo Purple /150 doesn't fit. At 1:29 it's scarcer in boxes than the Red /99 (1:21) and the Aqua /75 (1:26), and comes to about 1,985 cards, about a third of the run. The Carson Beck below is a Red numbered 01/99, so the Red exists as listed. We'd treat the Purple as unsettled until serial numbers turn up.

The veteran and dual sets have no line for a version with no color, so each ladder starts at the Gold /50:

Hobby odds: Charged Particles 1:575, 1:188, 1:476, 1:968 and 1:6,131; Dawn of Greatness 1:95, 1:113, 1:286, 1:593 and 1:3,942; Immersion 1:130, 1:133, 1:339, 1:707 and 1:5,016; Dual Rookie Autographs 1:225, 1:323, 1:836, 1:1,724 and 1:13,795.

The Blue, Orange and Sky lines fill their runs on all four sets, though most come out 1 or 2 percent over, a hint that the true box count sits slightly lower than the 58,125 these are worked at. The Josh Allen Charged Particles image on the release page is a Blue numbered 01/25, and the Bo Nix Immersion an Orange numbered 01/10. Three things don't fit:

• The Charged Particles Gold /50 is rarer than its Blue /25. At 1:575 it comes to about 100 cards, about eight per player, against 1:188 for the Blue. Either only a couple of the 12 players have a Gold, or the run isn't /50.
• The Golds on Dawn of Greatness and Immersion run short too, at 61 and 55 percent. Immersion's Gold and Blue fall at nearly the same odds (1:130 and 1:133), though one run is twice the other.
• Immersion's lines run over. Its Blue and Orange come to 106 to 108 percent of their runs on 16 players, well past the 1 or 2 percent the other sets show, and the odds are too long for rounding to explain it. They fit 17 cards (the Sky fits 16). Either Topps' odds count a 17th card or those lines are slightly off.

The rest of the signed cards:

Genesis, the Commissioner Combo and the Dual Book run at the same odds in both columns, like the base ladder. Genesis fills cleanly from the Gold /15 down.

The Silver Signings base is a /100. Topps' sheet gives no run for it, but its odds come to 976 cards, 97.6 of each of the 10, and the Caleb Downs below is numbered 085/100. The Gold Ink Inscription one-of-ones come to only about four of 10 in boxes, so not every signer has one.

The Dual Book base doesn't fill a /49. Its odds put about 146 in boxes, about 18 per card, 37 percent of a /49 on all eight. The colors below it fill 72 to 86 percent and its one-of-ones only four of eight, so some books likely skip some tiers. We'd treat the listed /49 as unsettled.

The NFL First Milestone Autograph Relics come in seven versions, at 1:1,971 hobby for the base and the Team Liner (both listed /2) and 1:4,245 for each of five one-of-ones: Brand Logo, Laundry Tag, NFL Shield, Button and NFL Draft Pin. They add up to more cards than the checklist has. Each one-of-one line puts about 13.6 cards in boxes, for 12 players, and the two /2 lines about 29 each, against 24. That fits about 14 players, not 12. Since these are redemptions, names may still be added.

How many boxes the sheet covers

The base and rookie ladders are the key, because every line sits at the same odds in both columns, so they count hobby and FDI boxes together. If every numbered card is in a box, each line's odds times its run times its card count gives the box count. The sheet rounds to the nearest box, so each line allows a range. On the base set, the Purple through Sky lines all overlap from 57,750 to 58,125 boxes. On the rookies, they only touch, at 58,125: the Sky allows nothing lower and the Aqua and Blue nothing higher, and even there the Sky, Aqua and Blue all sit exactly on a half-box rounding edge, so no single count fits every rookie line cleanly. Rounding up instead of to the nearest doesn't fit at all. So the sheet is figured on about 58,000 boxes, between about 57,750 and 58,125. The figures in this piece are worked at the top of that range.

The FDI-only lines split it, two ways. Every FDI box holds one FDI patch autograph /22, and there are 946 Provenance Patch FDIs (43 cards) and 858 Rookie Jumbo FDIs (39 cards), 1,804 in all, so 1,804 FDI boxes. Every FDI box also holds two FDI parallels /18, and there are 2,700 base and 900 rookie FDIs, 3,600 in all, which is 1,800 boxes. The two agree, and the sheet's 1:2 on each /22 line and 1:2 on the rookie /18 fit them. That's about 1,800 FDI boxes and about 56,000 hobby boxes (56,000 to 56,300). At 8 boxes a case, that's about 7,000 hobby cases and about 225 FDI cases.

At 7 cards a box that's about 392,000 to 394,000 hobby cards and about 12,600 FDI cards. FDI boxes are about 3 percent of the total.

That's the count if the whole of every numbered run is in a box. If a few copies of each stay out, the box count is lower by the same share, and the sheet can't tell the two apart. The one-of-ones point that way only slightly: the base and rookie Inceptions come to 148 of 150 and 48 of 50.

The cards with no print run

The rookie base has its own line, 1:1 hobby and 1:2 FDI, one in every hobby box: about 1,120 copies of each rookie in hobby and 18 in FDI. The veteran base set has no line, so its count is what's left of each 7-card box after every other line on the sheet, about 2.4 to 2.5 base cards a hobby box and about 0.4 an FDI box (its 7 cards less the six the box lists, the half rookie and the Launch or Rookie Short Prints). That puts about 900 to 930 copies of each base card in hobby and about 4 or 5 in FDI. The short 1:3 lines are coarse enough to move that by a few percent either way, and since the box allows fewer cards in packs with a special insert, it's a ceiling rather than a floor.

Charged Particles, Dawn of Greatness, Immersion, Dual Rookie Autographs and Provenance Patch Autographs have no line for a version with no number, so the biggest listed run on each is its Gold /50 (Aqua /75 on Provenance Patch). In boxes, though, the Charged Particles Blue /25 outnumbers its Gold about three to one, and Immersion's Gold and Blue come out about even.

The most common autograph is the Rookie Autographs base version, about 14,400 cards in all, and with every color it's about 940 signed cards per rookie. The scarcest cards with no number are the First Milestone /2 lines and the Rookie Jumbo base, at a handful of copies each.

The rarest pulls

The toughest hobby lines are the Dual Rookie Relic Autographed Book Inception at 1:13,918 boxes and the Dual Rookie Autographs Inception and Silver Signings Gold Ink Inscription at 1:13,795, each about four cards across all the hobby boxes. Next are the Charged Particles Inception (1:6,131), the Commissioner Combo Inception (1:5,567) and the Immersion Inception (1:5,016).

The base Inception falls once every 392 boxes and the rookie Inception once every 1,210. The FDI exclusives are the other end: every FDI box holds two /18 parallels and one /22 patch autograph.

Across the product, the one-of-one lines come to about 473 cards in boxes, of 521 one-of-one slots on the checklist: 148 base and 48 rookie Inceptions, 68 First Milestone one-of-ones and the rest across the autographs. Hobby gets about 460 of them, about one every 122 hobby boxes.

What to watch

The things we're watching: serial numbers on the Launch and Rookie Short Prints Alpha, to see if it's a one-of-one; the Charged Particles Gold and the Rookie Jumbo Purple, which don't fit their runs; the Dual Book base /49 and the First Milestone /2 lines; whether Immersion has a 17th card and First Milestone more names; and why the hobby autograph lines add up to more than the one on the box. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2026 Topps Inception Football release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: November 2026