I’ve been asked this a lot recently. This article is geared toward card market investors, not collectors. If you’re a collector, buy what you like and hold it forever. If you’re looking to use data and prospect knowledge to fund a bigger grail, here’s how I approach it. This is for educational purposes only and isn’t financial advice. Card markets, like any investment, can be volatile and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research.

We have seen more than a few examples this season of clear buy and sell opportunities in the Bowman market. Pick from any of these names this year alone, and you could have found a trade for 100% or greater profit opportunity. For most of these players, a 3-5x or more was easily possible with the right timing.

• Roman Anthony
• Sal Stewart
• Nick Kurtz
• Jacob Wilson
• Jonah Tong
• Jacob Misiorowski
• Owen Caissie
• Nolan McLean
• Payton Tolle

Even if we didn’t see such a strong youth movement, and we missed on a few of these players, a good strategy with mitigated risk would have led to a modest return. Any trade that can consistently net more than the S&P 500 (albeit with higher risk) in a year is one to consider.

Timing is everything. Achieving that return requires taking on a bit more risk, backed by performance, player pedigree, market size and data, to play the pop at certain points.

I am going to break down buying and selling into a few areas.

• Product release where the player has their 1st Bowman auto
• In the MLB offseason
• The lull between releases or example for 2024 Bowman Draft or 2025 Bowman players, the 2025 Bowman Chrome release might dull the hype train slightly for certain players in these prior releases
• When the player is called up to the majors aka the “debut” or “call-up”
• At a “catalyst event” - this refers to minor leagues promotions (AA to AAA), rankings buzz or a noteworthy milestone or game.

In this article, I will be using SportsCardPro to source sales data.

When Should I Buy & Sell?

The short answer that adequately balances risk to potential return: Flip some at release, grade your elite picks, buy more in the MLB offseason, but sell at call-up

Now, I could see releasing this article and immediately getting a bunch of heat. There are multiple examples this year that disprove this guidance. Nick Kurtz is one - his catalyst (RoTY favorite) came about a month after call-up with a continued display of incredible play and a viral stat-line busting 4HR game. These are the exception, not the norm.

Instead - we’re advocating for a simpler, scalable approach across more players that can maximize return while mitigating as much risk as possible.

Here are some reasonable price areas to monitor for different common variations. In general, you should start asking if the remaining upside is worth holding onto around these levels.

Ungraded (Raw) Bowman 1st Base Autos.

Position players > $200

Pitchers > $100

Ungraded (Raw) Bowman 1st Refractor /499 Autos.

Position players > $400

Pitchers > $250

Ungraded (Raw) Bowman 1st True Blue /150 Autos.

Position players > $600

Pitchers > $400

Paul Skenes:

After 2023 Bowman Draft release - February 2024: $125

During spring training - April 2024: $200

At call-up (mid-May): $290

Catalyst: Dominant performance saw a peak of $650 in mid-June

At end of season (ROTY) October: $440

Offseason (November): $380

Prices since have hit $500 again as a peak, dipping again to around $380 before rising as the season has progressed.

In this example, you would argue that hey - $650 is the obvious sell window right? I am not so sure. If you told me I could achieve greater than 100% ROI before a single MLB game is played, is that not worth taking some if not most profit off the table?

Jac Caglianone:

After 2024 Bowman Draft release - Jan 2025: $215

During spring training - April 2025: $300

At call-up (June): $355

September 2025 (post injury callup): $215

Could Jac Caglianone be a great player? Absolutely. There is plenty of talent there and he is someone I am hopeful will be great. Are there some concerns the bat is not quite translating at the major league level? Also yes, and the hobby moves on fast. Jac will need to not only perform but be a top player in the league to see his market turn around. Spring training next year will offer an interesting data point, but this is another example where call-up would have net 50% profit before a single game was played.

Braden Montgomery

I am putting this last example just to avoid the assumption that all players follow the same trajectory. Braden Montgomery was a moderately hyped 2024 Bowman Draft player coming off an injury. The trade to Chicago seemed to hurt his market, and despite solid (albeit not spectacular play), he has risen the prospect rankings by 20+ spots, is the White Sox top prospect now, and has played well at Double-A.

After 2024 Bowman Draft release - Dec 2024: $80, Jan 2025: $50

During spring training - April 2024: $50

September 2025: $40

Should we be out on Montgomery? Probably not, and an offseason dip seems likely and may offer the best buying opportunity. But if you were not a believer in the first place, release would have been the better time to sell.

Jakob Marsee

Just a quick one on a player I feel will be driven by a catalyst event. A 7 RBI game in early August, a franchise record, drove a rise in card sales that is just starting to subside. It’s a bit too early to compare August to September, but recent sales show a drop.

At release: $5

At call-up: ~$10

After the 7 RBI game: $20, rising to $35 as of 8/31.

Jakob Marsee, unfortunately, is more likely to be just a guy (last 7 games: 0 HR, .259 AVG - the 7 RBI game is doing some heavy lifting on the season line) currently in one of the worst card markets. Hard to predict a big stat line but I would have jumped on selling there personally.

What Should I Buy?

I sell ALL base autos, unless it’s someone I feel strongly about. In 2025 Bowman, that would have been JJ Wetherholt, Jesus Made, and Aroon Escobar as examples. On the flip side of that Thomas White, Charlie Condon, Kevin McGonigle I would have been out on for base autos. Reduce risk, capture that release day boost.

I keep or grade refractor autos, and the rarest true color autos I can afford. We can’t all afford Orange, Red, and Black refractor autos. The /499 offers a more affordable, liquid, and desirable option at a better price point. I collect true blue autos, and will prioritize those when possible for the collection, but I rarely buy them to flip because they are already priced fairly high. Nothing wrong with all other variations for the purpose of selling at callup. I did sell a purple McGonigle auto, PSA 10, at $1200+ recently. I am quite happy to sell any purple auto of just about any player at those levels. Again callup is a good target, but have a price target in mind and do not be afraid to pull the trigger and find the next one.

Owen Caissie was another example of a 2025 trade I executed. I bought in early summer, knowing a call-up was extremely likely in August/September barring injury. Sold at call-up, profited $100 on a single card and I am happy to move on. I am taking the side that Owen Caissie is not an elite MLB talent and that was likely peak return for the rest of his career.

I leave refractors, numbered non-autos ungraded, unless it’s an SP or looks pristine. Just personal preference and the upside on sales, unless it’s /25 or under, does not tend to be worth the grading cost and risk.

If you liked this guide, try pre-grade estimates with the HobbyMonitor Scanner and keep yourself Bowman sharp with our Prospect Rankings