2026 Topps Pristine Baseball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Pristine Baseball released August 12, and Topps posted the odds sheet the same day, then posted it again on August 29. The sheet runs 95 lines in two columns, Encased Pack and Non-Encased Pack, with odds and no print runs. Its one-of-one lines pin the run anyway: 313,038 packs, or 34,782 hobby boxes. From there the sheet checks every numbered tier, shows that about 96 percent of nearly every numbered base and insert tier is in packs, flags a handful of autograph tiers that don't fit their runs, and gives a count for the base set and every card with no serial number.

The box

Topps' product page lists nine packs in a hobby box: three packs that each hold one encased autograph or autograph relic card (two autographs and one autograph relic a box) and six packs of seven cards. That's 45 cards a box, 42 of them in the seven-card packs. The page gives no case configuration.

The sheet gives each kind of pack its own column, but its numbers show that both columns count packs of either kind, nine to a box. Start with the encased lines. Add up every autograph and autograph relic line in the Encased Pack column and it comes to 0.328 per pack, or 2.95 over nine packs: 1.94 autographs and 1.01 autograph relics, Topps' two and one. Read per encased pack instead, those lines would put a hit in only one encased pack in three (and read per seven-card pack, about two hits a box), and Topps says every encased pack has one. The one-of-one lines in the Non-Encased column also point to the same pack total as the encased ones (more on that below). So in this piece, "per pack" means per pack of either kind, the way the sheet counts.

Read that way, here's what the odds put in an average box:

• About nine base Refractors and four or five Paint the Corners Refractors.
• About 3.3 numbered base parallels, one of them an Aqua /199 on average.
• About three Plated & Polished, three Spotless and two or three Pristine Wilderness inserts, plus a numbered parallel of one of those three about every 1.4 boxes.
• A short-print insert (Amped, Monogram, Pearlescent, Pristine Pops, Rushmore or Timeless Connections) about once every eight boxes.
• About 16 base cards, which is what's left of the 42 seven-card-pack slots.
• In the encased packs, about 1.7 Pristine Autographs and 0.8 Pristine Pieces Autograph Relics, with a Popular Demand Autograph Relic about every 5.3 boxes, a Spotless Signatures autograph about every seven, an Italics autograph about every 12, a Rookie Jumbo Relic Autograph about every 72 and a Pristine Pair dual autograph about every 140.

The Pristine Personal Endorsements autographs are the one signed set on the Non-Encased side. They ride in the seven-card packs, about one every 30 boxes, on top of the three encased hits. A little more than half the encased hits come as a numbered parallel rather than the base version.

One oddity on the sheet: nine of the shorter lines print as clock times, 01:09:00 for 1:9, 01:11:00 for 1:11 and so on. They're read here as 1:9, 1:11, 1:17, 1:22, 1:33 (the base Aqua through Gold) and 1:11, 1:34, 1:42, 1:54 (the first four Pristine Autographs lines).

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 705 cards across 18 sets: a 200-card base set, nine inserts (200 cards), five autograph sets (169 cards) and three autograph relic sets (136 cards).

The base set runs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at #1 to Ken Griffey Jr. at #200. Topps tags 59 of the 200 as rookies, among them Konnor Griffin (#11), Munetaka Murakami (#19), Trey Yesavage (#38), Roman Anthony (#41), Samuel Basallo (#42), Nolan McLean (#61), Tatsuya Imai (#64), Kazuma Okamoto (#94), Jac Caglianone (#95), Kevin McGonigle (#178) and JJ Wetherholt (#187). The back half mixes in retired greats: Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Roberto Clemente, Derek Jeter, Cal Ripken Jr., George Brett, Nolan Ryan, Alex Rodriguez, Jackie Robinson, David Ortiz, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Albert Pujols, Ty Cobb and Griffey.

The inserts (here and in the signed sets below, the rookie counts are the cards Topps' checklist tags as rookies):

• Plated & Polished, 40 cards, 17 of them rookies.
• Spotless, 35 cards, new this year, from Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams and Jackie Robinson to Paul Skenes and Bobby Witt Jr.
• Pristine Wilderness, 25 cards, also new, six of them rookies.
• Monogram (30 cards, 10 rookies), Pearlescent (25, 13 rookies), Amped (20, eight rookies) and Pristine Pops (10: seven rookies plus Witt, Nick Kurtz and Roki Sasaki).
• Timeless Connections, 10 legends: Ty Cobb, Bob Feller, Griffey, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Randy Johnson, Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt, Duke Snider and Nolan Ryan.
• Rushmore, five cards with four players each: the Yankees (Ruth, Jeter, Mantle and Lou Gehrig), the Braves (Ronald Acuña Jr., Greg Maddux, Aaron and Chipper Jones), the Cubs (Sammy Sosa, Ron Santo, Ryne Sandberg and Ernie Banks), the Mariners (Johnson, Félix Hernández, Ichiro and Griffey) and the Tigers (Justin Verlander, Al Kaline, Cobb and Miguel Cabrera).

Topps bills Rushmore, Pristine Pops, Pearlescent and Timeless Connections as short prints. Amped and Monogram fall about as rarely.

The autographs:

• Pristine Autographs, 86 signers, 56 of them rookies, plus names like Edgar Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Jim Palmer, Joe Carter, Paul O'Neill and Billy Wagner.
• Pristine Personal Endorsements, 31 cards, eight of them rookies, with Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Chipper Jones and Clayton Kershaw.
• Spotless Signatures, 26, from Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan, Johnny Bench and Mike Schmidt to Skenes, Witt and Kurtz.
• Italics, 17, including Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Reggie Jackson and Shohei Ohtani, with four rookies.
• Pristine Pair Dual Autographs, nine: Caglianone and Anthony, Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, Jeter and Hideki Matsui, Kurtz and Jason Giambi, Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski, Jonah Tong and McLean, Skenes and Bubba Chandler, Sosa and Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Caglianone and Witt.

The autograph relics are Pristine Pieces Autograph Relics (77 cards, three of them rookies), Popular Demand Autograph Relics (43, five rookies) and Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs (16, all rookies).

That's 305 signed cards from 223 signers. Caglianone signs seven cards (counting both of his Pristine Pair cards), and Anthony and Misiorowski sign six each. Those three are in 12 of the 18 sets, more than anyone else.

The base ladder

Odds per pack. Topps prints no runs on the sheet; the runs below are the numbered runs listed for each tier:

Every tier is spread over the same 200 cards, so if the runs are right, each tier's run times its odds times 200 should come out about the same. The Orange is 65 times 25 times 200, or 325,000. The Pink is 327,000, the Primaries 326,000, the Red 325,000 and the SuperFractor 324,400, all within 1 percent of each other. The Gold, Blue and Green come to 330,000 each and the Purple to 336,600, which the rounding on odds as short as 1:11 to 1:33 covers. So the runs hold. A wrong run would stick out: a Red at /10 would come to 650,000.

The one tier that sits off is the Aqua, at 358,200. Even at the edge of its rounding (1:8.5), it comes to about 338,000. More on that below.

Counting the SuperFractor, each base card has 629 numbered parallel copies.

The inserts

Odds per pack:

The same check works on the insert runs. On all three ladders, every tier from the Purple /99 to the Red /5 comes to between 323,500 and 327,000 (odds times run times cards), right where the base ladder lands. The sheet even repeats figures across the two: the Plated & Polished Orange /25 and the base Red /5 are both 1:325 (1,000 cards each), and the Plated & Polished Red /5 and the base SuperFractor are both 1:1,622 (200 cards each).

The six short prints have only a base version and a SuperFractor on the sheet. The Murakami Monogram above and the Witt Pristine Pops below show no serial number on the front.

The autographs

Pristine Autographs carries the full ladder. Odds per pack, encased:

The Trey Yesavage at the top of this piece, a Blue numbered 26/75, fits the Blue.

The other autographs run shorter ladders. Odds per pack:

The first three are encased. Pristine Personal Endorsements is in the Non-Encased column, so those autographs come out of the seven-card packs. On Spotless Signatures the Blue /75 falls more often than the base version, and on Italics the Blue and the base version fall about equally.

The autograph relics

Odds per pack, all encased:

Pristine Pieces is the only set with both a plain base line and a Pristine Refractor line. On Popular Demand and Rookie Jumbo, the Pristine Refractor is the first line, the base version. Two lines here run out of order: the Pristine Pieces Pristine Refractor (listed at /99) falls less often than its Blue /75, and the Popular Demand Blue /75 falls less often than its Gold /50. Both come up again below.

The Kurtz above is a one-of-one in the same gold finish as the Jeter and Matsui card, and the sheet's only one-of-one on Pristine Pair is the SuperFractor. The sheet lists no SuperFractor for Popular Demand, though: its one-of-one there is the Black Pristine Refractor. Either the Black looks like this, or this card is a version the sheet doesn't list.

How many packs the sheet covers

Seven one-of-one lines, from both columns, come to within two packs of the same figure when you multiply the cards in the set by the odds:

The other eleven one-of-one lines land on whole cards at the same total, just short of the full set. Divide 313,038 packs by the odds and you get 193 of the 200 base SuperFractors, 39 of 40 on Plated & Polished, 34 of 35 on Spotless, 29 of 30 on Monogram, 24 of 25 on Pristine Wilderness and on Pearlescent, 82 of 86 Pristine Autographs Blacks, 71 of 77 Pristine Pieces Blacks, 40 of 43 Popular Demand Blacks, 29 of 31 Pristine Personal Endorsements SuperFractors and 25 of 26 Spotless Signatures SuperFractors. Each comes within a hundredth of a card of a whole number. That doesn't happen by chance: move the total 1 percent either way and most of them land between whole numbers.

This sheet rounds to the nearest pack, with one exception. 313,038 divided by 29 is 10,794.4, which the Monogram and Pristine Personal Endorsements SuperFractors print as 1:10,794 (rounded up, it would read 1:10,795). The exception is the two 1:13,044 lines: 24 SuperFractors in 313,038 packs is one every 13,043.25, which only prints as 1:13,044 rounded up. Leaving those two aside, every one-of-one line fits a total of 313,038 to 313,040 packs, and 313,038 is the only one of those that makes whole nine-pack boxes.

So the run is 313,038 packs, or 34,782 hobby boxes: 104,346 encased packs, each with one autograph or autograph relic, and 208,692 seven-card packs. That's about 1.57 million cards. Topps' product page gives no case size, so there's no case count.

The Pristine Pair SuperFractor line puts it plainly. There are nine of them and nine packs in a box, so its odds, 1:34,782 packs, are also the box count.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

Every set on the sheet has a one-of-one line, so a full run would be 705, one for each card on Topps' checklist. The odds put 677 of them in packs:

The numbered tiers in the seven-card packs follow the same pattern. At 313,038 packs, the base Orange /25 comes to about 4,800 cards of the 5,000 printed, the Pink /15 to about 2,870 of 3,000, the Primaries /10 to about 1,920 of 2,000 and the Red /5 to about 963 of 1,000, 96 percent each. The Gold, Blue and Green come to 95 percent and the Purple to 93, close enough given their short odds. Every insert tier from the Purple /99 to the Red /5 comes to 96 to 97 percent. That's where the 325,000 figure comes from: it's the number of packs it would take to hold every copy, and the sheet covers about 96 percent of it.

The Aqua /199 is the exception. At 1:9 the odds put about 34,800 of the 39,800 Aquas in packs, 87 percent, and even at 1:8.5 it would be about 36,800, or 93 percent.

The sheet doesn't say where the rest go. Topps' note at the top of it says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel or variation, so some players may skip a tier, or a few copies of each tier stay out of packs. Either way, the pattern on the regular inserts is exact: one SuperFractor short on each, and seven short on the base set.

Where the autograph ladders don't add up

The autograph tiers come up shorter than the numbered base and insert tiers, and some come up much shorter. Here's each tier's count in packs at 313,038, divided by its print run, so it reads as the number of signers' worth of cards in packs:

From the Orange /25 down, most rows sit within a few signers of their one-of-one count, which is what you'd expect if a few signers skip a tier. A few lines don't fit that way:

• Pristine Autographs Green /150. At 1:34 it puts about 9,200 cards in packs, enough for about 61 of the 86 signers at /150. Every tier below it covers 75 or more.
• Pristine Pieces Pristine Refractor. Its print run is listed as /99, but at 1:73 it puts about 4,290 in packs, about 43 of the 77 signers' worth, and it falls less often than the Blue /75 (1:66). Topps doesn't give a run for it. If it carries no serial number, it's about 56 copies per card.
• Popular Demand Blue /75 and Gold /50. The Blue at 1:288 comes to about 1,090 cards, about 14.5 signers' worth, and it's rarer per pack than the Gold at 1:226 (about 28 signers' worth). From the Orange down, the set covers 35 to 40 signers.
• Italics Blue /75 and Gold /50. About 11 and 13 of 17 signers' worth. The Italics Red works out to 75 copies, 15 signers at /5.
• Spotless Signatures Blue /75 and Gold /50. About 21 and 22 of 26.
• Pristine Pair Red /5. 36 copies, about seven of the nine pairs' worth, while all nine SuperFractors are in packs.

The likeliest reading is the one Topps' note allows: not every signer has every tier. Until serial numbers turn up, treat the Pristine Pieces Pristine Refractor run and the Popular Demand Blue and Gold as unsettled.

The cards with no print run

The same pack count estimates every card with no serial number on the sheet: packs divided by odds, divided by the cards in the set.

The base set has no line of its own, so its count is what's left of the 42 seven-card-pack slots in a box after every other Non-Encased line: about 16 base cards a box, about 560,000 in all, or about 2,800 of each of the 200 cards. The lines from 1:2 to 1:4 are rounded heavily enough that this figure could run from about 2,200 to 3,200, and the 1:1 Refractor line is rougher still: one Refractor in every seven-card pack would make it about 3,300, and two would make it about 2,300. The same rounding makes the Refractor and Paint the Corners counts rough, and the Plated & Polished, Spotless and Pristine Wilderness counts could move by up to a fifth either way.

Most of the rest fall into two groups. Rushmore, Timeless Connections, the Rookie Jumbo base version and the Pristine Pair base version come to about 22 to 24 copies per card, close to a /25. Amped, Monogram, Pearlescent, Pristine Pops, Spotless Signatures, Popular Demand and Italics come to about 47 to 50, close to a /50. The four short-print inserts in that group come to 48.1 or 48.2 per card, and Rushmore and Timeless Connections to 24.1 or 24.2, the same 96 percent of a /50 and a /25 that the numbered tiers put in packs.

At the other end, the Pristine Autographs base version is the most common signed card in the product, about 330 of each signer, at about 0.8 a box.

The rarest pulls

The toughest line on the sheet is the Rushmore SuperFractor at 1:62,608 packs, about one in 6,956 boxes. There are five, one for each team, and the odds put all five in packs. Next come the Pristine Pair SuperFractor at 1:34,782 packs (one in 3,865 boxes), the Pristine Pops and Timeless Connections SuperFractors at 1:31,304 (one in 3,478 boxes each), the Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Black at 1:19,565 (one in 2,174) and the Italics SuperFractor at 1:18,414 (one in 2,046).

Rushmore is the hardest pull even in its base version: 1:2,588 packs, one in about 288 boxes, about 121 copies in all across five cards.

Across the product, a one-of-one of any kind turns up about once every 51 boxes, 677 in all: 417 in the seven-card packs and 260 in the encased packs. A base SuperFractor is about one in 180 boxes.

What to watch

The things we're watching: the first serial numbers on the base versions of the six short-print inserts and on the Pristine Pieces Pristine Refractor; whether the Popular Demand Blue and Gold, the Italics Blue and Gold and the Pristine Autographs Green really fall as printed; what the Popular Demand one-of-one looks like; and where the 28 one-of-ones the odds leave out of packs end up. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2026 Topps Pristine Baseball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: August 2026