Rookie Radar: How MLB Newcomers Stack Up Against the Stars
We take a deep dive into three MLB newcomers – Matt Shaw, Kristian Campbell, and Dylan Crews – and see how their early hitting stats stack up against proven stars Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Adley Rutschman, and Corbin Carroll. Using only data from the start of the season (including advanced metrics), we’ll highlight where the rookies are excelling, where they need improvement, and what their early results could mean for sustained success. The goal is a balanced look that both casual fans and stat-heads can appreciate.
Matt Shaw: Finding His Footing at the Plate
Matt Shaw’s introduction to the majors has been a bit of a roller coaster. On the surface, his numbers are underwhelming – a .194 batting average and a .306 slugging percentage with just 1 home run so far. Those figures pale next to the likes of Aaron Judge (.379 AVG, 1.103 SLG) or even Adley Rutschman (.258 AVG, .484 SLG) in this early sample. However, one silver lining is Shaw’s plate discipline. He’s carrying a 14.3% walk rate, contributing to a respectable .310 OBP despite the low batting average. Shaw is walking more often than Judge (9.4% BB) and just a bit behind Rutschman (11.4% BB) – a promising sign that he isn’t overmatched by big-league pitching in terms of zone control.
That patience will serve Shaw well, but to stick in the lineup he’ll need to start making louder contact. Right now his hard-hit rate is only 20% – notably low when compared to elite hitters. Judge, for instance, is hammering the ball at a 68% hard-hit rate, and even fellow rookie Kristian Campbell is at 33%. Shaw’s lone homer and .111 ISO indicate that his power hasn’t shown up yet. The quality of contact metrics back this up: his average exit velocity is around 83 mph, and he’s barreled only 4% of his batted balls. By comparison, Corbin Carroll – who isn’t as massive as Judge but is emerging as a star – sports a .355 ISO and has barreled ~27% of his contact in this early going.
The good news is Shaw may be a bit unlucky too. His expected batting average (xBA) is .236, higher than his actual .194. Likewise, his expected wOBA is .296 compared to his real .283. These Statcast metrics suggest he “deserved” slightly better outcomes – perhaps a few of those outs were hard line drives right at defenders. Still, even those expected numbers are modest. Going forward, Shaw’s task is two-fold: make more contact (26.2% strikeout rate) and make better contact (drive the ball with more authority). The patience at the plate is a great foundation. Shaw doesn’t need to become Judge, but if he can translate that selective eye into more power, his stat line should climb. It’s early, and the tools that made him a first-round pick are still very much in development.
Kristian Campbell: Torrid Start – But Can It Last?
If Shaw is still finding his way, Kristian Campbell has burst out of the gates full throttle. Through his first few weeks, Campbell boasts a .423 batting average and .808 slugging – numbers that would make any All-Star proud. Shohei Ohtani is at .324 and even Aaron Judge is “only” .379 in our dataset. Campbell has 11 hits in 26 at-bats, including 4 doubles and 2 home runs. His .385 ISO indicates substantial power behind his hits. This rookie came out swinging — and connecting.
What’s even more impressive is Campbell’s plate discipline. He’s worked a walk in 18.2% of his plate appearances so far, giving him a gaudy .515 OBP. For comparison, Ohtani’s OBP is .410 and Rutschman’s .343; Campbell is lapping some very patient hitters. Equally important, he’s struck out just 18.2% of the time — showing a mature approach. In this sense, Campbell is emulating the balanced offensive profile you might expect from Adley Rutschman or Shohei Ohtani – contributing in all areas (average, power, patience).
Before we pencil Campbell into the Hall of Fame, though, we should note some signs that his hot streak will cool off. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is an astronomical .474, which is unsustainably high. Even the best hitters usually hover around .300–.350. Statcast backs this up: Campbell’s xBA is .291, his xSLG is .502 vs. actual .808, and xwOBA is .390 vs. actual .538. This means his quality of contact is still very good, but not quite matching the elite results he’s posted so far.
That said, there’s a lot to be optimistic about. Campbell’s approach at the plate looks advanced for a rookie. Even when the inevitable slump comes, his strong eye should keep him productive. Think of how Adley Rutschman provides value even when he isn’t racking up hits — Campbell seems to have that kind of skill set. If he continues to maintain a BB/K ratio around 1:1, he’ll have a high floor as a hitter.
One area of development: Campbell’s average launch angle is just 6.5°, suggesting many of his hits are low liners or grounders. Ohtani, for example, has a launch angle of 11.6° and turns those into homers. Campbell could unlock more power if he elevates the ball a bit more.
Bottom line: even when his numbers normalize, he has the tools to be a sustainable, productive hitter — possibly a long-term top-of-the-lineup guy.
Dylan Crews: Early Slump Hides Potential
On the opposite end of the spectrum sits Dylan Crews. A consensus top prospect entering the year, Crews has had a nightmare start: .045 AVG, .087 OBP, and .045 SLG. He has just 1 hit in 22 at-bats and no extra-base hits.
The most glaring issue is his contact rate. Crews has struck out in 43.5% of his plate appearances (10 Ks in 23 PA), by far the highest of this group. Even Judge, known for high strikeouts, is at 31.3%. More concerning: Crews has drawn just one walk, for a 4.3% BB rate. High strikeouts and few walks is a bad combination.
But there’s hope. On the rare occasions he makes contact, he’s hitting the ball hard: 89 mph average exit velocity, 33% hard-hit rate, and 2 barrels. His expected batting average (xBA) is .230, a far cry from .045. His xSLG is .406, and his xwOBA is .287 – suggesting he’s had bad luck on good contact. He’s hit into some rotten luck and is also pressing, which is not unusual for a rookie trying to meet high expectations.
The path forward for Crews: cut down the swing-and-miss, and trust his eye. Remember, even Aaron Judge struggled mightily in his debut stint in 2016. It’s a learning curve. The tools are there — good contact quality when he connects — he just needs to adjust and slow the game down a bit. Once he does, there’s a good chance his production will spike. A turnaround would not be surprising.