Prospect Radar: Week 1 Roundup
Week 1 of the AAA season is in the books. While data is limited. we're highlighting a few prospects who stood out. We are not going to start listing any "cold" prospects for a few more weeks, although Kyle Teel was an interesting find in some of the data. To keep things simple, we focused on fewer stats for this week 1 roundup. We hope to keep this going every week or two throughout the MiLB season, as well as comparing some key MLB rookies to established stars.
Below, we examine four young hitters – Roman Anthony, Nick Kurtz, Owen Caissie, and Justin Crawford – through the lens of weighted on-base average (wOBA), whiff rate, barrel percentage, and exit velocity (EV). We also take a look at Kyle Teel, whose early RBI surge came with underlying numbers that might raise questions about sustainability. Each blurb breaks down what the data suggests about the player’s approach and contact quality, with some scouting context to provide perspective on their tools and trajectory.
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony posted a robust .434 wOBA in the season’s first week, reflecting the damage he did when he made contact – he averaged 98.0 mph on balls in play and an impressive 33% of his batted balls were barrels. However, he also ran a sky-high 47.5% whiff rate, indicating that the young slugger had plenty of swing-and-miss mixed in with his loud contact. This feast-or-famine start aligns with Anthony’s profile as a high-upside power bat: “Anthony’s power potential is his highest-graded tool, and he’s consistently made hard contact and produced high exit velocities.” While the Red Sox prospect is lauded for an advanced approach for his age, he’ll look to retain that elite power output while cutting down on the empty swings as the season progresses.
Nick Kurtz
Oakland prospect Nick Kurtz had an explosive first week, evidenced by a .633 wOBA that ranked among the best in the minors. The left-handed first baseman showed both power and precision at the plate: he hammered the ball at a 98.0 mph average exit velocity with a 31% barrels-per-BBE rate, yet kept his whiff rate to a reasonable 28.2%. That combination – plenty of hard contact without an excess of swings-and-misses – yielded multiple loud extra-base hits in his opening series. It also tracks with Kurtz’s reputation coming out of Wake Forest as an advanced hitter with plus pop. In college he was known for “a good eye. Easy pop. Power to all fields.” The A’s No. 4 overall pick in 2024 put his polished approach and lefty power on full display, hinting that he could be quick to acclimate to pro pitching.
Owen Caissie
Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie turned in a strong .369 wOBA in week one, largely thanks to elite contact quality – but with significant swing-and-miss as the trade-off. He actually led this group in average exit velocity at 101.4 mph, and an eye-popping 36% of his batted balls were barrels, underlining the top-of-the-scale raw power in his bat. On the flip side, his whiff rate was a hefty 40.0%, signaling ongoing contact issues that tempered his overall production. This outcome isn’t surprising given Caissie’s profile: scouts laud his prodigious power and even praise his pitch selection (they “love two things about Caissie — his power and his good decisions at the plate”), but also note that making consistent contact is the area he needs to improve. His first week showed the kind of damage he can do when he connects, and the next step will be making that thunderous contact a bit more frequently.
Justin Crawford
Phillies prospect Justin Crawford’s first week was a clear example of a hit-over-power approach. He produced a solid .345 wOBA while running an exceptionally low 5.8% whiff rate – meaning he barely swung and missed at all – but also recorded 0.0% barrels, indicating none of his contact was hit in the ideal range for a home-run trajectory. His average exit velo was a respectable 94.5 mph, showing he can hit the ball hard enough, just not with much loft. This is perfectly in line with Crawford’s game: he’s a speedy contact hitter by design. In fact, reports highlight “excellent contact skills” and a decidedly hit-first, small-ball style that uses his plus speed to full advantage. The 19-year-old center fielder (son of former All-Star Carl Crawford) is still adding strength to his 6'3" frame, and Philadelphia believes the power will come as he matures. For now, his week one showing – lots of balls in play, few whiffs, and legs doing the work – reflects a player content to get on base and let his athleticism wreak havoc.
Kyle Teel
Catcher Kyle Teel stuffed the stat sheet in his first week, but his underlying metrics suggest some of that production may be hard to repeat. The 2023 first-rounder went 6-for-12 with two homers and nine RBI in the opening series for Triple-A Charlotte, contributing a gaudy .407 wOBA. However, despite the production Teel managed a good-but-not-great 11.8% barrel rate with a 92.1 mph average exit velocity, and his whiff rate (27.3%) was relatively elevated – a combination implying that many of those RBIs came from timely hits rather than consistently pulverizing the baseball. In other words, his run production outburst contrasts with some middling quality-of-contact indicators, hinting that it may not be fully sustainable. Indeed, scouting reports note that while Teel has decent raw power, his in-game power is more limited – his pop is described as only fringe-average in games – so we shouldn’t expect him to keep racking up huge RBI totals without an uptick in hard contact. On the positive side, Teel is a polished college bat known for a solid approach and feel to hit, which should help him adjust as pitchers exploit any holes. Even if the gaudy early stats normalize, his ability to produce when it counts (as shown by that six-RBI game) underscores a valuable knack for coming through, so long as he continues to hone his contact quality going forward.