HobbyMonitor Q1 Hobby Market Report
HobbyMonitor tracks three market indices covering different corners of the hobby: a 25-card cross-sport composite of blue-chip singles, a 10-card Bowman prospect auto index, and a 30-card 2026 Topps Series 1 rookie auto tracker. Together they paint a picture of where cards are moving and where they're sitting still. Here's what the data says through mid-April.
Keep an eye out for the 2025 Topps Chrome Football Index, which was just added and will watch early sales for Jaxson Dart, Cam Ward, Tom Brady and more from that set.
Card Market Composite: Blue Chips Hold the Line
The composite tracks 25 benchmark cards across baseball, basketball, football, soccer, and Pokemon. These are the cards that act like the S&P 500 of the hobby: liquid, well-known, broadly held.
The headline: the composite is mostly stable, but the 90-day view reveals real divergence under the surface. Some blue chips are trending up. Soccer is cratering right before the world cup.
Tier 1: The $1,000+ Club
| Card | 60-90d Ago | 15-45d Ago | Last 14d | 90d Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jordan Fleer RC | n/a | $7,424 | $7,039 | Steady |
| Lionel Messi WC | n/a | $2,375 | $1,008 | Down -58% |
| Tom Brady RC | n/a | $2,100 | $1,975 | Down -6% |
| Stephen Curry RC | n/a | $2,000 | $1,919 | Steady |
| Patrick Mahomes RC | n/a | $1,200 | $917 | Down -24% |
Jordan is Jordan. The Fleer RC has appreciated 9x over the last decade, and the 90-day data shows zero signs of softening. At $7,039 median with 127 sales in the last two weeks alone, it's the most liquid and most stable card in the composite.
The 90-day story is soccer and football QBs. Messi falling from $2,375 to $1,008 is the single largest move in the composite, a 58% decline. The sample in the last 14 days is thin (12 sales), but the direction is clear. The irony: the World Cup is two months away. Soccer card prices have historically spiked 200-300% on low-numbered parallels during tournament windows. The June-July World Cup in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico is projected to drive a $1B boost to the soccer card market. This could be a buy window, or the market could be telling you something about Messi at 38.
Mahomes at $917, down 24% from his $1,200 level six weeks ago, reflects the post-Super Bowl hangover. No recent ring, no price catalyst. Allen at $390 (up from $300 six weeks ago, +30%) is the counter-narrative: the 2024 MVP is the only football QB gaining ground. Probably a 2025 Topps Chrome Football boost?
Tier 2: The $100-500 Range
| Card | 15-45d Ago | Last 14d | 90d Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout Bowman Chrome RC | $800 | $437 | Down -45% |
| Giannis Prizm RC | $470 | $241 | Down -49% |
| LeBron James Topps RC | $450 | $450 | Flat |
| Charizard ex 151 | $449 | $425 | Flat |
| Charizard Base Set | $420 | $395 | Flat |
| Luka Prizm RC | $220 | $225 | Flat |
| Derek Jeter Topps RC | $169 | $190 | Up +12% |
Trout ($800 to $437, -45%) and Giannis ($470 to $241, -49%) are the biggest losers in the composite over 90 days. Trout's decline tracks with the Angels' rebuild and his age/injury profile. Giannis reflects the Bucks' playoff exit. These are the two names proving that "blue chip" doesn't mean "bulletproof."
On the other side: Pokemon is a rock. Charizard ex 151 and Base Set are both within 6% of where they sat six weeks ago. A PSA 10 first-edition Base Set Charizard hit $1.7M at auction in March, but the cards most collectors can actually buy are trading sideways. Stable is the whole pitch.
LeBron at $450 flat. Jeter ticking up to $190 from $169. Luka holding $225.
Tier 3: The Floor Cards
| Card | 15-45d Ago | Last 14d | 90d Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohtani Topps RC | $149 | $160 | Up +7% |
| Griffey Topps RC | $116 | $128 | Up +10% |
| Haaland Topps Chrome RC | $125 | $72 | Down -43% |
| Joe Burrow Prizm RC | $82 | $100 | Up +22% |
| Pikachu Base Set | $21 | $34 | Up +62% |
| Anthony Edwards Prizm RC | $25 | $28 | Flat |
| Juan Soto Topps RC | $42 | $22 | Down -49% |
Haaland at $72, down 43% over 90 days, mirrors the Messi decline. Like Messi, this could reverse hard when World Cup product starts hitting (Panini Select Road to World Cup drops April 23, Prizm FIFA World Cup on May 22). Norway returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 adds a narrative catalyst.
Burrow quietly climbing 22% to $100 is the sleeper move. The Bengals' offseason has the hobby paying attention again. Pikachu Base Set surging 62% from $21 to $34 suggests broader Pokemon retail demand is healthy.
Soto dropping from $42 to $22 (-49%) despite being on the Mets is notable. The hobby may be punishing the position switch or just correcting a card that was never priced for the player's ceiling. The team had had a rough stretch to start the year.
Composite takeaway: The 90-day view shows a market that's splitting. Traditional blue chips (Jordan, LeBron, Charizard, Jeter) are holding or grinding up. Active-athlete cards are more volatile: football QBs are diverging, soccer is falling pre-World Cup, and basketball is correcting post-playoffs. The composite as a whole is stable.
Bowman Market Index: Prospect Season Is Live
The Bowman index tracks 10 top prospect autos. This is the speculative end of the market, where prices move on spring training reports, prospect-list promotions, and eventually call-ups.
| Prospect | 60-90d Ago | 15-45d Ago | Current Raw | PSA 10 | 90d Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konnor Griffin | $454 | $758 | $873 | $1,941 | +92% |
| Roman Anthony | n/a | $360 | $583 | $1,875 | +62% |
| Paul Skenes | n/a | $729 | $657 | $2,175 | -10% |
| Nick Kurtz | n/a | $395 | $375 | $849 | -5% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | n/a | $305 | $319 | $1,443 | +5% |
| Nolan McLean | $175 | $294 | $279 | $804 | +60% |
| Leo De Vries | $160 | $232 | $271 | $733 | +69% |
| Jac Caglianone | n/a | $303 | $293 | $591 | -3% |
| JJ Wetherholt | $233 | $250 | $201 | $448 | -14% |
| Eli Willits | $183 | $150 | $153 | $361 | -16% |
The 90-day story in Bowman is a tale of two groups.
The risers: Griffin nearly doubled from $454 to $873 over 90 days. De Vries is up 69% from $160 to $271, driven by his hot AA start and the "youngest switch-hitting SS in baseball" narrative. McLean climbed 60% from $175 to $279 on the strength of his MLB debut (2.28 ERA, 28 K in 23.2 IP for the Mets). Anthony surged from $360 to $583 on his Opening Day roster spot.
The fallers: Wetherholt is down 14% from $233 to $201 despite a walk-off in the first week of the season. Willits down 16% from $183 to $153, the typical post-Bowman Draft correction on a prospect still far from the majors.
Skenes ($729 to $657, -10%) is the interesting case. He's an established MLB ace, but his Bowman 1st auto is drifting as the hobby shifts attention to the next wave. Meanwhile, his PSA 10 at $2,175 is the highest graded price in the index, a 3.3x premium that reflects the locked-in collector base. Skenes performance has been down, so the hobby demand waning makes sense.
Bowman takeaway: The prospect market is entering the highest-variance stretch of the year. Call-ups, performance data, and 2026 Bowman product (preorders opened April 13, Ethan Holliday on the cover) will drive the next wave of price discovery.
2026 Topps Series 1 Rookie Autos: The Post-Release Curve in Action
Series 1 dropped February 11 and is already sold out at Topps. The rookie auto tracker follows 30 cards through their first months on the secondary market. This is textbook post-release price action, and the data is following the script.
The Curve
| Window | Median Price | Sales | Active Members |
|---|---|---|---|
| Release week (Mar 30) | $70 | 591 | 30 |
| Week 2 (Apr 6) | $65 | 128 | 28 |
| Week 3 (Apr 13) | $58 | 48 | 19 |
The index median has dropped from $70 to $58 in three weeks, a 17% decline. This is entirely normal. Every Topps flagship release follows this pattern: release-week frenzy, two to three weeks of correction, then a slow grind toward the true market price. The decline is steeper when measured by average ($228 to $128) because the high-end names carry more weight.
Opening Day Changed Everything
The interesting story isn't the index-level decline. It's the divergence within the set. Opening Day created winners and losers overnight:
Surging (14-day median vs. prior median):
| Player | Prior Median | 14d Median | Change | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Moore | $50 | $190 | +280% | |
| Owen Caissie | $86 | $195 | +127% | |
| Carson Williams | $70 | $154 | +120% | |
| Cam Schlittler | $255 | $399 | +56% | |
| Payton Tolle | $137 | $223 | +62% | |
| Jakob Marsee | $118 | $213 | +81% |
Cooling:
| Player | Prior Median | 14d Median | Change | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Tong | $150 | $59 | -61% | |
| Bubba Chandler | $125 | $111 | -11% |
Roman Anthony leads the set at $850 (14d), down from $1,128 at release but still commanding a massive premium over the field. His Series 1 auto and Bowman 1st auto are both correcting simultaneously, which is typical for a top prospect adjusting to MLB pitching.
Series 1 takeaway: The post-release correction is normal and healthy. The names that made Opening Day rosters and produced immediately (Moore, Caissie, Williams) are already separating from the pack. The next catalyst is 30-day performance data. Names that sustain production will stabilize. Names that don't will keep sliding.
The Bigger Picture
Three indices, three stories, one theme: the hobby is entering its high season with a stable foundation.
The composite shows blue chips holding value. No panic selling, no irrational exuberance. Jordan, Charizard, and Jeter are doing what benchmark cards do: sitting quietly while everything else makes noise.
The Bowman index shows the prospect market is healthy but speculative. Griffin at $1,525 is the market's biggest bet on a player who hasn't played an MLB game yet. That bet will be tested in Q2 when call-up decisions start getting made.
Series 1 shows the hobby's price discovery mechanism working exactly as designed. Release hype inflates, reality corrects, and performance separates the real from the speculative.
Two macro trends worth watching: the 2026 World Cup (June 11 start) could drive a significant soccer card rally, with Messi and Haaland positioned as the main beneficiaries. And Topps' return to fully licensed NFL Chrome (just released) represents a new product category that could shift football card market share away from Panini for the first time in a decade.
All index data is tracked in real time on the HobbyMonitor Prospect Dashboard.
This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.