Arizona Fall League 2026: Whose Bowman Autos Are Moving
The prospect market has slipped since the Fall League opened. The league's Top 100 names ranked 51 to 100 are up about 26%. Here's who is moving, who isn't, and the cheap cards that jumped the most.
Before the first pitch, our Arizona Fall League preview put a price on every Bowman auto in the league. Four weeks later, we can check the math.
Start with the backdrop. Since Oct. 2, the day before games started, the typical prospect with a raw 1st auto of at least $10 is down about 6%. Of the 485 cards in that group, 314 fell and 126 rose.
Fall League names went the other way. Of the 37 league cards that started at $10 or more, 24 are up, and the typical gain is about 11%.
The scoreboard: all 15 Top 100 names
| Player | Fall line | Oct. 2 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Walcott (No. 8), Rangers | .822 OPS | $92 | $80 | -14% |
| Eduardo Quintero (No. 15), Dodgers | .573 OPS | $70 | $78 | +11% |
| Zyhir Hope (No. 26), Tigers | .698 OPS | $49 | $40 | -19% |
| Caleb Bonemer (No. 27), White Sox | .997 OPS | $72 | $86 | +20% |
| Arjun Nimmala (No. 34), Angels | .981 OPS | $59 | $63 | +8% |
| Bryce Rainer (No. 44), Tigers | .422 OPS | $61 | $57 | -7% |
| Tate Southisene (No. 58), Braves | .851 OPS | $38 | $46 | +21% |
| Aidan Miller (No. 59), Phillies | 1.154 OPS | $59 | $80 | +35% |
| Nathan Flewelling (No. 63), Rays | .757 OPS | $29 | $36 | +25% |
| Jarlin Susana (No. 66), Nationals | 4.50 ERA | $48 | $64 | +31% |
| Angeibel Gomez (No. 76), Royals | .834 OPS | $89 | $93 | +5% |
| Dax Kilby (No. 78), Yankees | .994 OPS | $74 | $96 | +28% |
| Charles Davalan (No. 79), Dodgers | .698 OPS | $39 | $38 | -3% |
| Demetrio Crisantes (No. 84), D-backs | .738 OPS | $31 | $39 | +27% |
| Ike Irish (No. 95), Orioles | .850 OPS | $30 | $38 | +26% |
Stats as of Oct. 31. The league-wide OPS is .785. Raw 1st Bowman auto, except Walcott and Hope, whose 1st Bowman cards came without an autograph, so we track their first Bowman auto.
The top 50 stayed put. The next group didn't.
The preview split these 15 names into two groups on purpose. The argument was that a big fall from a top-50 name was more likely to confirm the price than move it, and that the names ranked 51 to 100 had more room.
So far, that's what happened. The six names inside the top 50 are about flat as a group, with a typical move under 1%. The nine ranked 51 to 100 have a typical gain of 26%, and seven of those nine are up 20% or more.
The other thing in that table is how little the stat line explains. Crisantes has a .738 OPS, below the league number, and his card is up 27%. Quintero is hitting .178 and his card is up 11%. Walcott has nine steals and an .822 OPS, and his card is down 14%. A lot of this looks like collectors buying the names they're paying attention to, not reacting to each box score.
The two I'm most impressed with so far
The two Bowman upside plays I'm most impressed with so far are Dax Kilby and Arjun Nimmala. I'll be adding their cards over the coming weeks.
Dax Kilby, SS, Yankees (Salt River)
A right hamstring strain held Kilby to 32 games at Low-A this year, so Arizona is where he's getting the at-bats back. He's 19 until Nov. 17, and he's hitting .304/.369/.625 with 11 extra-base hits in 65 plate appearances: six doubles, three triples and two home runs. He has struck out eight times.
One evaluator who has seen every team in the league called him the best pure hitter out here. The doubt is on defense, where the same report doesn't expect him to stay at shortstop.
His card has gone from $74 to $96, and it's jumpy right now. It sold for $120 and $130 on Oct. 29, then $92 on Oct. 31.
1st Bowman Auto: 2025 Bowman Draft, raw $96 Since Oct. 2: up 28%
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Angels (Mesa)
The Blue Jays sent Nimmala to the Angels at the trade deadline in the Jose Soriano deal, so his card still shows him in Toronto blue. He's 21, and he's hitting .302/.457/.524 with eight extra-base hits and four steals. The number I keep coming back to is 16 walks against 19 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances. Only Miller has more walks among regulars in the league.
Here's the part that stands out on price. Nimmala ranks 44 spots ahead of Kilby on the Top 100, and his card costs about a third less. Some of that is the Yankees premium the preview talked about. It's also a much quieter market. His last three sales were $70, $68 and $80, all above where he sits now, and he hasn't had a sale since Oct. 25.
1st Bowman Auto: 2024 Bowman, raw $63 Since Oct. 2: up 8%
Who else is moving
Welbyn Francisca, SS, Guardians (Surprise)
Francisca wasn't one of the 15 Top 100 names, and he has been the best hitter in the league anyway. He's at .436/.492/.745 with 22 RBI in 12 games. Among hitters with at least 45 plate appearances, he leads the league in average, slugging and OPS.
He's a 20-year-old switch-hitter and the Guardians' No. 19 prospect, and he hit 17 home runs in 65 High-A games this year. His card has more than doubled, from $24 to $52, the biggest move of any league card that started at $10 or more. Recent sales are tight around $50 to $55, so this isn't one wild sale.
1st Bowman Auto: 2023 Bowman Chrome, raw $52 Since Oct. 2: up 115%
Aidan Miller, SS/3B, Phillies (Surprise)
Back trouble cost Miller nearly all of 2026, including surgery in June. The preview said the first thing the market needed to see was six healthy weeks, and four weeks in, he's playing pain-free and getting on base constantly. He has 21 walks in 61 plate appearances, and his .590 on-base percentage leads the league. He hasn't hit a home run yet.
His card fell from $80 to $59 in September as the lost season sank in. It's back at $80, and his last sale was $100 on Oct. 28.
1st Bowman Auto: 2024 Bowman, raw $80 Since Oct. 2: up 35%
Tai Peete, OF, Cardinals (Peoria)
Peete lost up to 25 pounds to an illness this summer, then hit .336/.381/.604 over his last 34 regular-season games. He has kept going in Arizona at .355/.431/.661 with 13 steals in 15 games. He's 21 and the Cardinals' No. 17 prospect. His card is up from $34 to $40.
Caleb Bonemer, 3B/SS/OF, White Sox (Glendale)
Strikeouts were the question after 161 of them in the regular season. In Arizona he has 12 in 55 plate appearances, with three home runs and a .997 OPS. His card is up from $72 to $86.
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals (Salt River)
Susana is sitting 99 to 102 mph and has 20 strikeouts in 16 innings. He also has nine walks and a 4.50 ERA, and at least one evaluator sees a future high-end reliever. His card is up from $48 to $64, but this is the thinnest market on the list. His last sale was Oct. 12.
The cheap cards moved the most
The biggest percentage moves in the league came from the bottom of the preview's price table.
| Player | Fall line | Oct. 2 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle DeBarge, Twins | 1.089 OPS | $3 | $16 |
| Antonio Anderson, Red Sox | 1.051 OPS | $4 | $20 |
| Yasser Mercedes, Twins | .877 OPS | $6 | $13 |
| Luke Holman, Reds | 0.82 ERA | $4 | $8 |
| Justin Lamkin, Royals | 3.52 ERA | $9 | $15 |
| Jared Thomas, Rockies | .999 OPS | $12 | $19 |
Anderson shows how fast this can happen. He's a 21-year-old switch-hitter the Red Sox paid $1.5 million as a third-round pick in 2023, and he wasn't on Boston's Top 30. He hit a go-ahead grand slam on Oct. 9 at 115 mph off the bat. His auto traded around $6 to $16 the next day, and it was selling for about $20 a week later.
DeBarge is a 23-year-old who stole 41 bases in Double-A with a .677 OPS. In Arizona he's at .358/.485/.604, and his card has been selling for $15 to $20.
These are big percentages on small dollars. A $3 card going to $16 is a $13 move. If you're chasing them now, you're paying five or six times what the card cost a month ago for a small sample in a hitters' league.
The names going the wrong way
Walcott is the most interesting price in the league. He's back at shortstop after internal brace surgery, and that same evaluator rates him and Kilby as the two best players out here. His auto has still fallen from $92 to $80. Kilby's card now costs more than the card of the player ranked 70 spots ahead of him.
Rainer was the clean test from the preview: contact is the only thing that matters. It hasn't gone well, with 11 strikeouts in 30 plate appearances and a .148 average. The market has been patient, and his card is only down from $61 to $57.
Hope is getting on base with 14 walks, but he's slugging .293 with one home run. His card has dropped from $49 to $40.
What to keep in mind
Nothing about last year's lesson has changed. Kevin McGonigle won MVP of this league and his card went from $229 in December to $375 in April. Braden Montgomery climbed into his June debut, then fell by more than two thirds. Neither one peaked in November.
So the fall can start a story, but it rarely finishes one. Most of what's in the tables above is four weeks of games in a league that favors hitters.
The Fall Stars Game is Sunday, Nov. 8 at Salt River Fields, and the championship is Saturday, Nov. 14 at Peoria Stadium.
Track the names
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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.
Published: October 2026