2026 Topps Tier One Baseball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Tier One Baseball released June 24. It's a one-pack box of four cards, two of them autographs, and Topps' odds sheet is a single hobby column of 205 lines with no print runs. One card settles the size of the run: Clayton Kershaw's Milestone Material Autograph Relic, a set of one, whose two one-of-ones each fall 1:63,769. The rest of the sheet agrees, so the run is 63,769 boxes. From there we can check every numbered ladder against the print runs in our data, estimate the cards with no serial number, and find the lines that don't add up.

The box

Topps' product page lists 4 cards per pack, 1 pack per box and 2 autographs per box. The box art on the same page promises two autographs, one relic and one base card, warns that a box may hold redemption cards, and carries Topps' hobby-only mark. The page doesn't list a case size, so this piece counts boxes.

Since a box is one pack, every odds figure on the sheet is also odds per box. Read as printed, the lines add up to about 4.23 cards a box:

• Autographs, counting the autograph relics and cut signatures: about 1.98 a box. That's Topps' two autographs.
• Base cards, the Tier 1 and Tier 2 base versions plus every base parallel: about 0.95 a box. That's the one base card.
• Relics: about 1.29 a box, against the one Topps promises.

This sheet rounds its odds up on every line but one (more on that below), so the true rates are, if anything, a little higher than printed, and rounding can't explain the extra 0.29 relics a box, about 18,600 cards across the run. A four-card box can't hold 4.23 cards, and with the autograph and base lines at about 2.93 of their three slots, a second relic would have to be a fifth card. More likely, some relic lines are more generous on the sheet than in the boxes.

The most common hits: a Break Out Autograph of some kind about once every 2.5 boxes, an Autographed Tier One Relic every 3, a Prime Performers Autograph every 4.2 and an Autographed Tier One Jumbo Relic every 4.6. On the relic side, a Tier One Relic of some kind comes about once every 1.7 boxes.

The checklist

Not counting parallels, Topps' checklist runs 1,702 cards in 47 sections: 100 base cards, 944 autographs and autograph relics from 307 signers, 72 cut signatures and 586 relics.

The base set is 100 cards in three tiers. Base Tier 1 is 20 legends, from Derek Jeter at #1 to Mickey Mantle at #20, with Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Roberto Clemente and Ichiro among them. Base Tier 2 is 50 current players, from Nick Kurtz at #21 to Will Smith at #70. Base Tier 3 is 30 rookies, #71 to #100, and Topps tags all 30 as rookies, among them Jacob Misiorowski, Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami, Tatsuya Imai, Nolan McLean, Jac Caglianone and Roman Anthony.

Topps lists 19 sets under its autograph heading:

• Break Out Autographs, 87 signers, the biggest set under that heading, mostly young players from Konnor Griffin, JJ Wetherholt and Kevin McGonigle to Roki Sasaki and Nick Kurtz.
• Prime Performers Autographs, 60 signers, mostly veterans and retired players, from Dwight Gooden and Jose Canseco to Pete Alonso.
• Tier One Xplosion Autographs (38), Tier One Talent Autographs (37) and Tier One Autographs (33). Tier One Autographs puts Sandy Koufax, Barry Bonds, Ichiro, Cal Ripken Jr., Johnny Bench and Roger Clemens alongside Bryce Harper, Gunnar Henderson and three rookies.
• Base Tier 1, 2 and 3 Autographs, signed versions of the three base designs: nine legends in Tier 1 (Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Ichiro, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Schmidt, Nolan Ryan and Sammy Sosa), 27 signers in Tier 2 and 28 in Tier 3.
• Clearly Perfect Autographs (22), Machined Signatures (21), Retro 2011 Base Autographs (20), Tier One Operators (20), Top Shelf Signatures (20), Connoisseurs (18), Tier One Shots (18), City Connect Signatures (17) and Tier One Rookie Class (17 rookies).
• Dual Autographs, nine pairs, among them Ripken and Henderson, Griffey and Bonds, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Sasaki. Triple Autographs, two trios: George Brett, Bobby Witt Jr. and Caglianone, and Don Mattingly, Aaron Judge and Jeter.

Under its autograph relic heading Topps lists 11 more: Tier One Autographed Bat Knobs (92), Autographed Tier One Relics (87), Tier One Autographed Limited Lumber (83), Autographed Tier One Jumbo Relics (54), Autographed Prodigious Patches (38), Autographed Tier One Relics Die-Cut Book (29), Gripping Autographed Relics (25), Autographed Dual Relics Bat (12 pairs), MLB Bat Knob Sticker Autograph Cards (11 cards of six players), Hickory and Hide Autographs (9) and the one-card Milestone Material Autograph Relic of Kershaw.

Caglianone is on 16 of the signed cards, the most of anyone. Witt, Colson Montgomery and Misiorowski are on 12 each.

The relics are Tier One Limited Lumber (179), Tier One Bat Knobs (87), Tier One Relics (79), Prodigious Patches (44), Shadow Relics (34), Tier One Relics Die-Cut (33), Gripping Relics (30), Jersey Number Relics (25), Dual Player Relics (22 pairs), Tier One Legend Relics (22), Tier One Talent Relic (20) and Rookie Relics (11 rookies).

Topps files the cut autographs under its relic heading: 59 Cut Signatures and 13 Cut Signature Relics. The Cut Signature Relics are all baseball, from Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle to Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Roger Maris. The Cut Signatures are mostly baseball too, from Cy Young and Jimmie Foxx to Thurman Munson and Kirby Puckett, but Topps' list also includes Thomas Jefferson, Orville Wright, Henry Ford, Claude Monet, George Patton, John Denver and Marvin Gaye.

The base ladders

Topps prints no runs on the sheet, so the runs below are the ones in our data. Several colors carry a different run in each tier. Odds per box:

Within a tier, every numbered parallel is spread over the same cards, so if the runs are right, run times odds times cards should come out the same for each one. On the long lines it does. In Tier 1, the Red is 25 times 133 times 20, or 66,500, the Holo Silver 66,200 and the Pink 66,500. Tier 2's Red, Holo Silver and Pink come to 66,250, 66,500 and 66,500, and Tier 3's Holo Silver and Pink to 66,300 and 66,450. The shorter lines, from 1:14 to 1:111, all land in the same range once their rounding is allowed for. A wrong run would stick out: a Tier 1 Blue at /50 would come to 83,000. So the base runs in our data hold, Tier 3's unusual Blue /125 included.

There is no Tier 3 base line on the sheet. More on that below.

The autograph ladders

Most autograph sets share one ladder. Our data lists it as Blue /99, Green /49, Red /25, Holo Silver /10 and Holo Platinum Blue 1/1. "Base" is the version with no color. Odds per box:

The base-design autographs and a few smaller sets run a shorter ladder, Red /25, Holo Silver /10 and Holo Platinum Blue 1/1 in our data:

The two big autograph relic sets have ladders of their own:

Four smaller autograph relic sets come only as a base version and a Holo Platinum Blue 1/1: Gripping Autographed Relics (1:258 and 1:2,551), Hickory and Hide Autographs (1:709 and 1:7,086), Autographed Dual Relics Bat (1:536 and 1:5,315) and Autographed Prodigious Patches (1:169 and 1:1,679). Clearly Perfect Autographs (1:49) and Machined Signatures (1:85) have a single line each.

Kershaw's Milestone Material card runs Base 1:1,276, Red /25 1:2,551, Holo Silver /10 1:6,377, Pink /5 1:12,754, and two one-of-ones, a Laundry Tag and a Nike Logo, at 1:63,769 each.

The relic ladders

Tier One Relics, odds per box: Base 1:5, Purple /149 1:6, Duals /99 1:9, Triples /49 1:17, Dual Patch /25 1:33, Button /5 1:166 and Triple Patch 1/1 1:808.

The rest, with the runs in our data. The last column is Holo Platinum Blue 1/1 unless noted:

Tier One Bat Knobs and Tier One Limited Lumber each have a single line on the sheet, a Holo Platinum Blue at 1:733 and 1:357.

How many boxes the sheet covers

Kershaw's card is the key. It's one card, so each of its lines counts copies directly:

Every tier lands on 63,769 boxes, with all 5 Pinks, 10 Holo Silvers and 25 Reds in boxes, and the base version works out to exactly 50 copies.

The sets that come one copy per card say the same. The sheet prints no runs, but at 63,769 boxes every Bat Knob and Limited Lumber line, signed or not, and both cut signature lines work out to one copy of each card (the Judge Autographed Limited Lumber at the top is numbered 1/1):

The spread above 63,769 is rounding, and on this sheet it almost always goes up. 63,769 divided by 92 is 693.1, and the Autographed Bat Knobs line prints as 1:694, not 1:693. The Autographed Limited Lumber (768.3, printed 1:769), the Limited Lumber (356.3, printed 1:357) and the Cut Signature Relics (4,905.3, printed 1:4,906) do the same. One line doesn't: the Tier One Autographs Holo Silver prints 1:362, and no whole number of cards gets there by rounding up (176 cards gives 362.3, 177 gives 360.3), so that one was rounded to the nearest. So the true odds are a touch better than printed, and every other count worked back from them is a floor: within a card on the long lines, but loose on short ones. A 1:5 line could be anything from just over 1:4 to 1:5.

So the sheet covers 63,769 boxes. At one pack and four cards a box, that's 63,769 packs and 255,076 cards, with 127,538 autographs at two a box.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

The base parallels are about 96 percent in packs. The base ladders work out to about 66,000 to 66,500 boxes if every numbered card were in one, about 4 percent more than 63,769. At 63,769 boxes the odds put about 96 of the 100 Tier 1 Pinks in packs, 240 of the 250 in Tier 2 and 144 of the 150 in Tier 3. The one-of-ones come up shorter: 17 of the 20 Tier 1 Holo Platinum Blues, 47 of 50 in Tier 2 and 27 of 30 in Tier 3, 91 of the 100. The printing plates come to 383 (76, 193 and 114), about 3.8 per card, which is four plates per card at the same 96 percent.

The relic ladders are nearly full. The Blue, Green, Red and Holo Silver tiers on Dual Player Relics, Tier One Relics Die-Cut, Shadow Relics and Tier One Talent Relic all run 97 to 100 percent (the Shadow Relics Holo Silver comes out a card or two over its 340), with every Holo Platinum Blue in packs. Tier One Relics runs 90 percent on the Purple /149 and Duals /99 and 97 to 98 percent from the Triples down, with all 79 Triple Patches in packs. Rookie Relics is the exception: 81 percent of its Blue /99 and 91 percent of its Green, though all of its Holo Silvers and one-of-ones.

The autograph relic ladders are close. Autographed Tier One Jumbo Relics runs 80 percent on the Blue /99, 93 percent on the Green /49, 97 percent on the Patch /10 and essentially all of the Button /5 (about 270 of 270), with all 54 Laundry Tags. Autographed Tier One Relics runs 82 percent on the Dual, 94 percent on the Triple, 93 on the Dual Patch and 90 on the Button, and 82 of its 87 Triple Patches.

The autograph ladders aren't. Across the 11 sets in the big autograph table, here's what the odds put in packs against what the runs in our data would make if every signer had every tier:

Per signer, that's:

The one-of-ones are all but full, and each tier below is emptier than the one above it. A shortfall that grows down the ladder is what you'd see if many signers have shorter runs than the set's top numbers, and Topps' own previews show legends numbered well below them. Topps' product page shows a Sandy Koufax Tier One Autograph numbered 3/3 and a Derek Jeter Retro 2011 Base Autograph numbered 4/5, and neither run is on either set's ladder in our data. Topps' note on the sheet also says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel. So if the Blue /99, Green /49, Red /25 and Holo Silver /10 in our data are right, they're best read as the top of each tier, not every signer's run. Tier One Autographs, the set with Koufax, Bonds and Ichiro, comes up shortest from the Green down: about 19 Greens, 11 Reds and 5 Holo Silvers per signer.

The shorter autograph ladders split the same way. On the Red /25, Base Tier 3 Autographs has about 686 of a possible 700 in packs (98 percent) and the Die-Cut Book all 725. Dual Autographs runs 89 percent, Base Tier 2 Autographs 86 percent, Retro 2011 80 percent, and Base Tier 1 Autographs, the nine legends, only 44 percent: about 100 Reds and 55 Holo Silvers across the nine.

The base versions and other cards with no print run

The base set. The Tier 1 base version falls 1:34, about 1,876 cards, or about 94 of each legend. The Tier 2 base version falls 1:11, about 5,800 to 6,380 cards, or about 116 to 128 of each player. Tier 3 has no base line at all. The usual way to count a base set, cards per pack minus every other line, doesn't work here, since the sheet's lines already add up to more than four cards. Going by the one base card a box instead, the base lines account for about 0.95 of it, which leaves at most about 0.05 a box, about 3,000 cards or 100 of each rookie, for any unnumbered Tier 3 base card. Since the true rates run a little above the printed ones, it could be none.

Counting every version, the odds put about 6,790 Tier 1 cards in packs (about 340 per legend), about 34,500 Tier 2 (about 690 per player) and about 19,400 Tier 3 (about 650 per rookie). A Tier 1 card of any version turns up about once every 9.4 boxes.

The unnumbered base parallels. Our data has no run for Holo Gold, but it comes to about 17 copies of each card in all three tiers (343, 850 and 514 cards), which looks like a numbered tier. If it fills its run at the 96 percent the others do, that would be about /18; Topps hasn't said. Bronze, in Tier 2 and Tier 3 only, falls 1:6, at least 10,628 cards in each tier: about 213 to 255 of each Tier 2 player and 354 to 425 of each Tier 3 rookie.

The base versions of the hit sets. Using 63,769 boxes, about how many of each card are in packs:

The ranges are the rounding: the low end is what the printed odds give exactly.

Six sets land on about 10 copies per card, and at least one of them is numbered that way: the Jac Caglianone Autographed Prodigious Patch below is numbered 04/10, and the only other version of that set on the sheet is the Holo Platinum Blue 1/1. With that 1/1 on top, each of the six sets comes to about 11 copies of each card.

Other base versions may be numbered too. The Drake Baldwin Clearly Perfect Autograph below is numbered 74/75, while the set's line works out to about 59 per signer, about 79 percent of a /75 on all 22. On the relic side, the base versions of Dual Player Relics, Tier One Legend Relics, Tier One Relics Die-Cut and Rookie Relics fall exactly twice as often as their Blue /99, and those of Tier One Talent Relic, Shadow Relics and Jersey Number Relics about twice as often as their Green /49. If they're numbered, that points to runs around 199 and 99. Neither Topps' checklist nor its sheet says.

Dual Autographs and Triple Autographs have no base version on the sheet. The Duals come only as Red, Holo Silver and Holo Platinum Blue, about 294 cards in all, about 33 per pair. The Triples come only as Holo Silver /10 and Holo Platinum Blue 1/1: 22 cards in all, 11 of each trio, one every 2,899 boxes.

Where the numbers get uneven

• Jersey Number Relics looks like 26 cards. Topps' checklist lists 25, but the odds put 26 Holo Platinum Blue one-of-ones in packs, and every other tier comes out 2 to 4 percent over its full run on 25 cards (about 1,250 Greens against 1,225, 644 Reds against 625 and 259 Holo Silvers against 250). On 26 cards, every tier is 98 to 100 percent full, like the other relic sets.
• The Legend Relics' Dual Relic doesn't fit 22 cards. At 1:272 it works out to about 235 cards, more than the 220 that the /10 in our data can make on 22 players, so either that run or the line is off. The Triple Relic 1/1 at 1:5,798 works out to 11, so only half the legends have one in packs.
• Three Blue lines are too long. On a /99 and a /49 spread over the same signers, the Blue should fall about twice as often as the Green. Connoisseurs' Blue (1:143) is rarer than its Green (1:99), Tier One Rookie Class's Blue (1:154) is rarer than its Green (1:131), and Tier One Xplosion's Blue and Green are both 1:52. Either those Blue lines are off or Blue is much shorter on those three sets.
• The relic lines add up to more than one a box, about 1.29, as covered above.
• No Tier 3 base line. The sheet lists Bronze, Holo Gold, printing plates and every numbered parallel for the 30 rookies, but no unnumbered Tier 3 base card.

The rarest pulls

The toughest lines are Kershaw's two Milestone Material one-of-ones, the Laundry Tag and the Nike Logo, at 1:63,769 each, one copy apiece in the whole run. His card comes to 92 copies in all: 50 base, 25 Red, 10 Holo Silver, 5 Pink and the two one-of-ones.

Next is the Triple Autographs Holo Platinum Blue at 1:31,885, two cards: Brett, Witt and Caglianone, and Mattingly, Judge and Jeter. After Kershaw's Pink at 1:12,754 comes 1:7,086, the Holo Platinum Blues of Base Tier 1 Autographs, Dual Autographs and Hickory and Hide, nine cards each. Then, after Kershaw's Holo Silver at 1:6,377, 1:5,798: the 11 MLB Bat Knob Sticker Autograph Cards, the 11 Rookie Relics Holo Platinum Blues and the 11 Legend Relics Triple Relics. The 13 Cut Signature Relics fall 1:4,906.

Across the product the odds put about 2,011 one-of-ones in packs: 383 printing plates and 1,628 other one-of-ones, among them 452 Bat Knob and Limited Lumber cards and the 72 cut signatures. That's a one-of-one about every 32 boxes, or every 39 without the plates.

What to watch

The things we're watching: a 26th Jersey Number Relic, since the odds count one more than Topps' checklist; the Legend Relics Dual Relic's run and how many legends get a Triple Relic; Topps' figures for the three Blue lines that fall less often than their Green; serial numbers on the base versions and on the Holo Gold base parallel; how many signers fall short of each autograph tier; and whether Tier 3 has an unnumbered base card. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2026 Topps Tier One Baseball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: June 2026