2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball released February 11. Topps' odds sheet runs 22 pages, 349 lines and 26 columns, one for each format, from the hobby and jumbo boxes to a Japan Edition and a Celebration Mega Box with sets of its own. Like most Topps sheets, it gives odds per pack and no print runs. One line settles the hobby run by itself: the Jerry Seinfeld autograph FoilFractor, a one-of-one that the sheet puts in hobby packs only, at 1:3,867,600. That's 3,867,600 hobby packs. Lines like it pin the other columns, and across all 26 the sheet covers about 31.7 million packs. From there we can check every numbered tier and count the cards with no print run.

The box

Topps doesn't publish pack or box sizes for Series 1: the odds sheet has none, and its Series 1 product page is no longer up. This piece borrows the sizes Topps lists for 2026 Update Series: hobby boxes of 20 packs of 12 cards with one autograph or relic, 12 boxes to a case, and jumbo boxes of 10 packs of 40 cards with an autograph and a relic, six boxes to a case. The pack counts come from the odds alone, but every box, case and copies-per-base-card figure below scales with those borrowed sizes.

Hobby and Hobby Jumbo get one column each, the Hanger two (EA and SE), the Fat Pack, Mega Box, Super Box and Value Box three each (CEE, EA and SE, which Topps doesn't explain) and the Club Super Box bulk packs four (A to D). The versions' odds are close to identical, but their one-copy lines show very different pack counts. Each format, with its hits per pack (SE where there are several):

That's 31,737,334 packs in all. Hobby is about 12 percent of them, and the Value Box alone covers nearly twice as many as hobby.

The hits fit the borrowed sizes. The hobby column's autograph, autograph relic and relic lines add up to one every 19.9 packs, 1.0 per 20-pack box (0.34 autographs and 0.66 relics), and jumbo's to about 1.0 autograph and 1.3 relics per 10-pack box.

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 3,290 lines, and every subset and card count in this piece is Topps'. Some aren't on our release page yet: the Celebration Mega Box sets (253 lines), the five Through the Years Golden Mirror cards, the 19 Iconic Topps Buybacks, the Jerry Seinfeld autograph and seven of the 13 gift redemptions come from Topps' checklist only.

The base set is 350 cards, Aaron Judge at #1 to Mike Trout at #350, with 15 Team Cards, 10 Combo Card/Checklists, 12 Future Stars and 10 League Leaders cards of three players each (370 names in all). Topps tags 71 base cards as rookies.

Each set's card count is in its table or note below. The variations include 25 rookies on the 1952 Topps design, like the Roman Anthony above, and five Through the Years Golden Mirror cards: Ken Griffey Jr., Hank Aaron, Aaron Judge, Mickey Mantle and Shohei Ohtani. Eleven inserts run in every format, among them First Pitch, nine non-players such as Tony Hawk; retail adds Stars of MLB and Titans of the Game, and the Super Box adds Oversized, Companion and Funko cards. The Celebration Mega Box has eight sets of its own, plus 15 Mascots autographs and the Mascots Dynasty Autograph Patches (seven singles, six MLB Logo patches and two duals). The 100 1991 Topps Baseball Chrome cards and 86 Chrome autographs come in a hobby and jumbo Silver Pack boxloader, with no line on the sheet.

The redemptions are 75 Years of Topps Baseball Gifts (13), Iconic Topps Buybacks (19 original Topps cards, from a 1952 Mickey Mantle to a 2017 Aaron Judge) and Fanatics Authentic (30 players, Fanatics boxes only). Among the autographs, Topps tags 33 of the 185 1991 Topps Baseball signers as rookies, 55 of the 83 Baseball Stars and 30 of the 48 Flagship Real One, and all 21 Base Card 1952 Autograph Variations. The singles are a Jerry Seinfeld autograph, two Funko Pop autographs (Mike Trout and Luis Arraez, Super Box only) and a Signature Tunes dual of Moby and Bryce Harper, which has no line on the sheet.

The base parallels

Topps prints no runs on the sheet, so the runs below are the ones in our data. Retail odds are from each format's biggest version (SE); the others run within a few percent. In every format:

The two /75s share identical odds in all 26 columns, as two /75s on the same 350 cards should, and so do the two /25s. The plates come to about 3.8 per card, four a card at 95 percent. A jumbo or Hanger pack is about four times as likely as a hobby pack to hold a numbered one (1:333 and 1:350 against 1:1,319 on the Black); Value and Mega Box odds run about 30 and 55 percent longer than hobby.

The numbered Rainbow Foils are hobby and jumbo only:

Spread over the same 350 cards, run times hobby odds should be about the same on every tier: 22,825 to 22,850 from the Gold (50 times 457) down and 23,022 for the FoilFractor, while the four biggest tiers run 23,142 to 23,463, which is why they land a point or two lower. Hobby and jumbo split each tier almost exactly in half. The sheet calls the Purple "Purple Rainbow Holo"; its place and odds fit a /250.

Retail gets the Holo Foil ladder instead:

The numbered Holo Foils land at 94 to 96 percent too. Our data lists the Pink Holo Foil at /800, but 1,160 per card is 145 percent of that, so it's unnumbered or a much bigger run. The sheet lists the Gold Holo Foil twice (page 4 repeats it after the Topps Logo line, with slightly different odds in six columns). Either line alone fills a /50 at 96 percent, so we count it once.

Four formats have a numbered ladder of their own. Odds per pack:

Every numbered tier on the Hanger, Jumbo and Value ladders lands at 95.4 to 97 percent, the Spring Training Rose Gold at about 340 of 350. The Hanger also has an unnumbered Pink Diamante Foil at 1:10, about 290 per card. Our data has no run for the Confetti colors, but 95.9 Pink and 48.2 Lime Green per card is 97 and 96 percent of a /99 and a /50, the usual share on this sheet. The rest are single lines: Silver Crackle Foil (Super Box, 1:3, about 2,340 per card), Topps Logo (Fanatics, 1:2, about 720), Opening Day (Celebration, 1:16, about 650) and Cherry Blossom (Japan Edition, 1:36), a /99 in our data with 96 percent of it in packs.

The variations

Odds per pack. The copies are across all formats:

Vintage Stock is a /99 in our data with 95.6 percent of it in packs, and its odds match the 1991 Topps Baseball Green /99 in every column. True Photo comes out the same, about 96 per card, though our data has no run for it and its odds match Heavy Lumber's in all 26 columns. The Clear Variation has no run either, but its 966 hobby copies are 96.6 percent of a /10.

The 100 Holiday Variations are Tin only, with a ladder of their own. Per Tin pack, the Holiday Variation falls 1:1 (about 6,600 per card), the Polka Dots Green/Pink 1:2 (3,300), the Polka Dots Purple/Blue and Chicks 1:10 each (660), the Eggs 1:21 (314) and the Rabbits 1:56 (118). The numbered Flowers /50 (1:147), Umbrellas /10 (1:731), Watering Cans /5 (1:1,458) and Birds 1/1 (1:7,177) put about 90 percent of each run in packs, 92 of the 100 Birds, a little lower than the base ladders.

The inserts

The base version of each insert, odds per pack:

Stars of MLB and Titans of the Game fall 1:1 in Hanger packs and every second or third pack in most other retail. The sheet calls Home Field "Homefield Advantage". In the Super Box, the Oversized and Companion cards fall 1:10 and the Funko cards about 1:1,000.

Five inserts share a foil ladder. Hobby odds:

Counting every format, the odds put 95.2 to 95.6 percent of each numbered tier in packs, 95 of the 100 FoilFractors and about 955 Pink Foils per card.

1991 Topps Baseball adds Crackle Foil versions in the Mega Box and Koi Fish versions in the Japan Edition:

Every numbered tier lands at 95 to 96.8 percent. Per card, the base version comes to about 104,000, the Crackle Foil about 10,400, the Koi Fish about 3,000, the Pink about 960 and the Pink Crackle Foil about 460.

Stars of MLB and Titans of the Game have a Foil ladder (Green /99 to Red /5, plus a FoilFractor) and, in the Mega Box, a Crackle Foil ladder (Gold /50 to Red /5). The Crackle tiers land at 96.5 to 99 percent and the Foil tiers at 91 to 98.7, with 28 of 30 and 19 of 20 FoilFractors in packs. The unnumbered Crackle Foil base versions come to about 480 per card.

The Celebration Mega Box sets, odds per pack:

At 3,624,600 Celebration packs, every FoilFractor line here comes to exactly its card count except Walk This Way's 49 of 50, and every numbered tier lands at 96 to 98 percent except the Mascot Relics Green (83) and Gold (92). Per card, the base versions come to about 72,500 for Perennial All Stars and 8 Bit Ballers, 60,400 for Mascots and Gameday Drip, 386 for Mascot Relics and 226 for the three base-number sets.

The Mascots autographs don't match Topps' checklist, which lists 15 (M-1 to M-17, with no M-10 or M-13). The FoilFractor comes to 18, the Red to 90 and the Black to 179: 18 cards at 1/1, /5 and /10. The base version (1:2,063) comes to about 1,760, 117 per card at 15 or 98 at 18. The Mascots Dynasty patches come to about 149 singles (21 per card) with about 75 Silver and 18 Gold versions, plus about 17 duals and 15 MLB Logo patches.

The autographs

Hobby odds per pack, with the base version's copies per card across all formats. The 1/1 is the Platinum on the first two sets and the FoilFractor on the rest:

Real One Autographs also have a 75th Anniversary /75 at 1:3,861. The smaller sets: Cover Athletes Autographs 1:69,065 (about 19 per card), Base Card 1952 Autograph Variation 1:77,352 (about 7.8; Red 1:143,245, Black 1:773,520), 75 Years of Topps Baseball Autographs (13 signers) 1:386,760 (about 4.3; FoilFractor 1:1,933,800), Funko Pop 1:127,670 in the Super Box (about 9.5) and Jerry Seinfeld 1:552,515 (Black Foil 1:966,900, Red Foil 1:1,933,800, FoilFractor 1:3,867,600). Jumbo is far richer than hobby: Baseball Stars Autographs fall 1:48 there against 1:439 in hobby, and the 1991 autographs 1:26 against 1:190.

Counting every format:

• Baseball Stars Autographs fill almost completely: 94.6 to 98.7 percent of every tier and 81 of 83 Platinums. First Pitch Autographs too: 98 percent of the Gold, Orange and Black, all 45 Reds and all nine FoilFractors.
• 1991 Topps Baseball Autographs fill from the top down: 98.5 to 99 percent of the Black and Red and 180 of 185 Platinums, then 96 percent of the Orange, 88 of the Gold, 77 of the Green and 55 of the Blue. In hobby the Green (1:827) is easier to find than the Blue (1:855), and the Red (1:9,049) than the Black (1:10,106).
• Real One Autographs run 89 to 93 percent with 45 of 48 FoilFractors, but the Green /99 only 74 percent. 75 Years of Topps Die Cut Autographs run 89 to 98 percent, with 74 of 77 FoilFractors.
• The 1952 Autograph Variation Black comes to exactly 21, one per card, so it's a one-of-one; the Red to 81, 77 percent of a /5.
• Jerry Seinfeld: 22 base autographs (seven in hobby, eight in jumbo, seven in retail), eight Black Foils and four Red Foils (hobby and jumbo only, with no known run) and the one FoilFractor.

The relics and autograph relics

Hobby odds per pack, with the base version's copies per card across all formats:

The 1/1 is the Platinum on all of these but Real One Relics, where it's a FoilFractor. City Connect Swatch Collection relics, In The Name relics and the patch cards are hobby and jumbo only. The rest run in every format and are thickest in jumbo: Major League Material relics fall 1:29 there against 1:91 in hobby, and 1991 Topps Relics 1:19 against 1:77.

Counting every format:

• City Connect Swatch Collection fills 92 to 96 percent of every tier, with 48 of 50 Platinums. Major League Material runs 89 to 95 percent, with 80 of 87 Platinums; its Blue, about 11,930, is close to 80 cards at /150.
• 1991 Topps Baseball Relics split in two: Blue through Orange at 94 to 95.5 percent, but Black, Red and Platinum at about 75 (677, 339 and 68, almost exactly 68 cards at /10, /5 and 1/1). About 23 of the 91 look to stop at Orange.
• Major League Material Autographs fill 85 to 98 percent of the Gold through Red and 74 of 86 Platinums, but the Green only about 5,930, 70 percent of a /99 and 92 percent of a /75.
• City Connect Swatch Collection Autograph Relics fill 95 to 97.5 percent of the Orange, Black and Red, with 15 of 16 Platinums, but the Gold only about 440, 27.5 per signer, barely more than the Orange /25.
• Topps Flagship Autograph Patch fills 91 to 96 percent of every tier, with all 17 Platinums. Major League Material Dual Autographs put all five Platinums and 84 percent of the Reds in packs, but only 64 percent of the Blacks and 55 of the Oranges.
• Heavy Lumber Autograph Relics come to about 1,450, 96.5 percent of a /25, and In The Name relics to about 353. Real One Relics run 75 to 95.5 percent; many Real One lines don't come out to whole cards in any column, so treat their counts as rough.

How many packs the sheet covers

The Jerry Seinfeld autograph is the key: one card in four versions. The FoilFractor is hobby only, at 1:3,867,600, one copy in 3,867,600 packs. The Red Foil falls 1:1,933,800 in hobby, two copies, and the Black Foil 1:966,900, four. In jumbo the First Pitch FoilFractor falls 1:1,154,700, and the Seinfeld Red and Black 1:577,350 and 1:288,675, two and four copies in 1,154,700 packs. Every line with a known count agrees:

The patch Platinums, the 19 buybacks on Topps' checklist and the dual autograph Platinums come out to exactly their counts, with none in retail.

So the hobby run is 3,867,600 packs and the jumbo run 1,154,700. With the borrowed sizes, that's 193,380 hobby boxes, 16,115 cases of 12 and about 46.4 million cards, and 115,470 jumbo boxes, 19,245 cases of six and about 46.2 million cards. Other box sizes would change those counts, not the pack counts.

This sheet rounds up: 3,867,600 divided by 7 is 552,514.3, printed 1:552,515 for the seven hobby patch Platinums, and divided by 14 it's 276,257.1, printed 1:276,258 for the 14 Topps Profiles Reds. So a count worked back from the odds is a floor. That only matters on short lines, where a 1:3 covers anything from just over 1:2 to 1:3.

Each retail column works the same way: its longest odds that fit are one-copy lines, five to 26 of them per column, and they set its pack count. Three lines fit no pack count and are left out of everything here: the All Aces Gold, the All Kings Gold and the 75 Years of Topps Baseball Gifts redemption. Each repeats one value across a format's versions (both Golds print 1:4,213,632 in Mega Box columns of 72,240 to 3,034,080 packs), and in 12 columns one of them prints longer odds than any one-copy line, including the All Aces Gold's 1:1,161,880 in jumbo. Two checks show the rest hold: the 2025 Greatest Hits FoilFractor runs in 17 columns and adds up to exactly 28, one per card (three in hobby, four in jumbo, 21 in retail), and seven of the Celebration sets' FoilFractor lines come to exactly their card counts. Twice the packs in any column would run those lines past the number of cards. Nine smaller columns (Club Super Box B, Fanatics, Fat Pack CEE and EA, Floor Display, Mega CEE, Super Box CEE, Tin and Value CEE) rest on their own one-copy lines alone.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

At these pack counts, most numbered runs put 94 to 97 percent of their copies in packs, and the one-of-ones come up short the same way: 336 of the 350 base FoilFractors, 315 First Cards, 308 Rose Gold Holo Foils, about 340 Spring Training Rose Golds, 92 of the 100 Holiday Birds and about 1,323 of the 1,400 printing plates. Either a few copies of each run stay out of packs or some cards skip a tier; the sheet doesn't say which. Only two lines run over: the Pink Holo Foil, at 145 percent of the /800 in our data, and the Mascots autographs, which fit 18 cards to Topps' 15.

The cards with no print run

The base set has no line of its own, so its count is what's left of each pack after every other line on the sheet. In hobby, every other line adds up to about 0.72 cards a pack, which leaves about 11.28 base cards in a 12-card pack: 3,867,600 packs times 11.28, divided by 350, is about 124,600 copies of each base card. A 40-card jumbo pack has about 3.18 cards from other lines, which leaves 36.8 base cards and about 121,500 copies of each. That's about 246,000 of each base card from hobby and jumbo, and like the box counts it scales with the borrowed pack sizes. The retail formats, 26.7 million packs between them, add more, but with no Series 1 retail pack sizes their base counts can't be worked out.

Every other line with no run has its copies per card above except three redemptions. Fanatics Authentic redemptions fall 1:2,607 in Fanatics boxes, about 6.5 per player. The Iconic Topps Buybacks come to 19, the number on Topps' list. The 75 Years of Topps Baseball Gifts come to about 20 redemption cards across 13 gifts, but that's one of the three lines that fit no pack count, so treat it loosely. The 1991 Topps Baseball Chrome cards and autographs, which come in the Silver Pack boxloader the sheet doesn't cover, and the Signature Tunes card, which has no line, get no count.

Cover Athletes Autographs aren't all numbered alike. Topps' own photos show the Albert Pujols at the top of this piece numbered 22/25 and a Bryce Harper numbered 08/15, and the odds put about 194 in packs across the 10 signers.

The rarest pulls

Two lines tie for the toughest in a hobby pack at 1:3,867,600: the Jerry Seinfeld FoilFractor, the only copy of its card, and the First Pitch FoilFractor, one of eight in packs. In jumbo, the First Pitch FoilFractor at 1:1,154,700 is the longest line that fits the pack count; the sheet prints the All Aces Gold longer, at 1:1,161,880, but that line fits no count. In retail, five Value Box SE lines sit at 1:5,807,280: the Seinfeld base autograph, the First Pitch Autograph Red, the Major League Material Dual Autograph Black and Red, and the Base Card 1952 Autograph Variation Black.

The one-of-one lines that fit (the FoilFractors, Platinums, First Cards, Rose Golds, Holiday Birds and the 1952 Autograph Black) add up to about 2,660 cards in packs, not counting printing plates. About 520 are in hobby, one every 7,500 hobby packs, or one every 370 boxes.

What to watch

We're watching for the first serial numbers on the Clear Variation, the Pink and Lime Green Confetti and the True Photo; Topps' word on the Pink Holo Foil run and the Mascots autograph count; the City Connect Swatch Collection Autograph Relics Gold and the Major League Material Autographs Green; and Series 1's own box sizes, which would change the box, case and base-card counts above. Our data also lists three base parallels not on Topps' sheet (Canadian Independence Day /67, Purple Tinsel and Yellow Tinsel), so they have no odds. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

Our checklist and parallel ladder are on the 2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball release page; the subsets credited to Topps' checklist above aren't on it yet. You can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: February 2026