2026 Topps Holiday Baseball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Holiday Baseball released October 21 in three formats, a Mega Box, an Advent Calendar and a Hobby Tin, and Topps posted the odds sheet the day before. The checklist has been up since September 16. The sheet runs 66 lines in three columns (Mega Box, Collector Tin and Advent Calendar), with odds and no print runs. Each format has a numbered ladder of its own, and each ladder pins its own count: about 5.72 million Mega packs (about 571,750 boxes), about 662,400 tins and about 145,470 Advent Calendars, roughly 114 million cards in all. Since Topps prints no runs, every run in this piece is worked out from the odds. Along the way the sheet turns up a Chrome ladder that puts only about 96 percent of each run in Mega packs, and it gives a count for the base set and every card with no serial number.

The box

Topps' product pages list the Mega Box at 10 cards per pack and 10 packs per box, 100 cards, with one autograph, relic or Chrome base card per box and 20 boxes to a sealed case. The side of the box adds one Die-Cut Ornament card and three Holiday Variation SPs. The Advent Calendar is 24 packs of 5 cards, 120 cards, with two exclusive Chrome Plaid parallels per calendar and eight calendars to a case.

The Hobby Tin needs a closer look. Topps' main page for the set and its case listing print "59 cards per pack, 3 packs per box", while the tin's own product page says 59 cards per tin and three tins per box, with six exclusive Holiday Lights parallels per tin and five boxes to a case. The two agree if the "pack" is the tin itself, and the sheet says the unit it counts is a tin: its Collector Tin column lists Holiday Lights at 4:1 and Blue Metallic Holiday Lights at 2:1, six per unit, which is the six per tin Topps promises. If the sheet's unit were one of three packs in a tin, a tin would hold 18 Holiday Lights. So the sheet's tin odds are odds per tin, and the number of tins below holds however many cards a tin has. The card totals use the tin page's 59 cards a tin, and the sheet fits it: every other line in the tin column adds up to about two more cards a tin, eight in all, which leaves about 51 base cards in each tin.

The odds back up each format's promise:

• Mega Box. The Chrome lines add up to 1.05 cards a box, the autographs 0.016 and the relics 0.005, about 1.07 hits a box. A plain Chrome Variation turns up in about two boxes out of three, a numbered Chrome about once every three boxes, an autograph about once every 61 boxes (once every 59 counting relic autographs) and a relic of any kind about once every 211. The Oversized Die-Cut Ornament, at 1:10 packs, is one a box. The two Holiday Variation SP lines, 1:7 each, come to 2.86 a box, and 1:7 covers anything from 1:6.5 to 1:7.5, so three a box fits.
• Advent Calendar. The Plaid Refractor at 1:14 and the five numbered Plaid tiers add up to 1.97 a calendar, the promised two. Every pack has a Holiday Plaid parallel (1:1), and the Holiday Variation SP and Backs SP, at 1:24 each, are one apiece per calendar.
• Hobby Tin. Besides the six Holiday Lights, each tin averages one Holiday Variation SP (1:2 each for the SP and the Backs SP), and the Die-Cut Ornament at 1:3 is one per box of three tins.

The checklist

Not counting parallels, Topps' checklist runs 640 cards across 12 sets.

The base set is 200 cards, from H1 Bobby Witt Jr. to H200 Ronald Acuña Jr. Topps tags 51 of them as rookies, among them Konnor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Roman Anthony, Nolan McLean, Trey Yesavage and Cam Schlittler. All 200 also come as a Base Chrome Variation, HC1 to HC200.

The variations are four 25-card sets of base cards: Holiday Variation SP, Holiday Variation SSP, Holiday Variation Backs SP and Holiday Variation Backs SSP. Fifty-six players are spread across the four, and four of them are in all four: Jac Caglianone, Chase DeLauter, Jacob Misiorowski and Roman Anthony. (Topps' list numbers Jordan Walker's Holiday Variation SP as H202. His base card is H148.)

The inserts:

• Hidden Elf, 25 cards, from HE-1 Aaron Judge to HE-25 Bubba Chandler, 13 of them rookies. Topps' product page describes five variations for each of five players, each with the elf in a different spot, but Topps' checklist lists 25 different players.
• Making the Nice List (Topps spells it Making the NICE List!), 25 die-cuts that Topps says highlight players' best single seasons. They cover 20 players: Shohei Ohtani has three cards, and Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Tarik Skubal two each.
• Oversized Die-Cut Ornament (Mega) and Die-Cut Ornament (tins), 20 cards each, nine of them rookies. They share 18 players. The tin version has Travis Bazzana and Konnor Griffin where the oversized one has Jacob Misiorowski and Carson Benge.

The relics are Holiday Relics (45 players, 16 of them rookies, from Alec Burleson to Tarik Skubal) and Holiday Faux Relics, five holiday characters: Elf, Gingerbread Man, Mrs. Claus, Nutcracker and Santa Claus.

Two sets on the sheet aren't on Topps' checklist at all: a five-tier Base Autographs ladder in Mega boxes and Base Stickers in the Advent Calendar. Both are covered below from the sheet.

The base parallels

Odds per pack (per tin for the Collector Tin). Topps prints no runs on the sheet, so the runs below are worked out from the odds, as explained under the table:

Each format gets its own colors. Mega packs get the Glitter Holiday (five a box at 1:2), the Blue Glitter Holiday (one a box) and the numbered ladder from Purple Glitter /99 to Golden Glitter 1/1, with four themed tiers mixed in: Metallic Gingerbread Man /50, Metallic Candy Cane /25, Metallic Stocking /10 and Menorah /8. Tins get the Holiday Lights ladder, from four Holiday Lights and two Blue Metallic Holiday Lights a tin up to the Golden Metallic Holiday 1/1. Every Advent pack has a Holiday Plaid. The Light Blue and White Glitter Holiday runs in Mega packs and tins, and the new Snow Days in all three.

Every numbered tier lives in one format, on the same 200 cards, so within a format the odds fix how the runs compare. In Mega packs the Golden Glitter falls 1:28,588, and the other tiers fall 5.0 times as often (Green Glitter), 8.0 (Menorah), 10.0 (Red Metallic and Stocking), 25.0 (25th and Candy Cane), 50.0 (Gingerbread Man) and 98.9 (Purple Glitter). With the Golden Glitter as the one-of-one at the top, that's /5, /8, /10, /25, /50 and /99, and the 1:289 is precise enough to rule out a /100. The tin ladder works the same way off the Golden Metallic Holiday at 1:3,312: the Green Holiday Lights falls 5.0 times as often (a /5), the Red Metallic Holiday Lights 10.0 (a /10) and the Purple Holiday Lights about 100 times, but its coarse 1:33 can't separate a /99 from a /100. None of these runs is printed by Topps, and Topps' product photos show no serial numbers, so they're fits until serial numbers turn up.

A numbered base parallel turns up about once every 12 Mega boxes and a numbered Holiday Lights about once every 28 tins.

The Chrome ladder

The Base Chrome Variation and its parallels are Mega only, except the Plaids, which are Advent Calendar only. Odds per pack:

Each Sparkle tier has the same odds as its plain Refractor twin, so the same run. The Mega Chrome runs come off the SuperFractor at 1:29,776 the same way the paper runs come off the Golden Glitter: the Red falls 5.0 times as often, the Black 10.0, the Orange 25.0, the Gold 50.0, the Green 98.9, the Blue 150.4 and the Purple 300.8. With the SuperFractor as the one-of-one, that's /5, /10, /25, /50, /99, /150 and about /300 (a /299 would come out at 1:100, not 1:99, so the odds lean to /300, though the gap is under 1 percent). But the Chrome ladder doesn't line up with the paper ladder from the same Mega packs. Each Chrome tier falls about 4.2 percent less often than the paper tier with the same run: the SuperFractor at 1:29,776 against the Golden Glitter's 1:28,588, the Red /5 at 1:5,955 against the Green Glitter's 1:5,717, the Black /10 at 1:2,978 against the Red Metallic's 1:2,859, the Orange /25 at 1:1,191 against the 25th's 1:1,143, the Gold /50 at 1:596 against the Gingerbread Man's 1:572 and the Green /99 at 1:301 against the Purple Glitter's 1:289.

At 5.72 million Mega packs, that puts about 96 percent of each Chrome run in packs, spread over 200 cards: 192 of the 200 SuperFractors, 960 of the 1,000 Reds, 1,920 of 2,000 Blacks, 4,801 of 5,000 Oranges, 9,593 of 10,000 Golds, 18,995 of 19,800 Greens, 28,877 of 30,000 Blues and about 57,750 of about 60,000 Purples. That's 192 cards' worth of every tier. Topps' checklist lists 200 Chrome Variations, so either eight of them have no Mega Chrome parallels, or about 4 percent of every Chrome run stays out of Mega packs. The sheet can't tell which. The base ladder can't be the one that's off: at the 5.96 million packs the Chrome tiers would need to be complete, it would put 208 Golden Glitter one-of-ones in packs, and there are only 200.

Counted over 192 cards, the two Refractors with no run land on round numbers too: the Refractor (1:298) at 99.9 copies of each card and the Sparkle Refractor (1:596, the same odds as the Gold /50) at 50.0. On 200 cards they're about 96 and 48. Either way, an unnumbered Refractor is scarcer than a Blue Refractor /150.

The Chrome Variation itself, at 1:15 Mega packs, comes to about 381,000 cards, about 1,900 of each of 200 (about 1,985 of each of 192). A numbered Chrome of any color falls about once every 30 Mega packs, or one every three boxes.

The Advent Calendar's Plaid ladder is its own: the Plaid Refractor at 1:14, about 249,000 cards, about 1,250 of each, and numbered tiers from Green Plaid /99 to Red Plaid /5, with no one-of-one. A numbered Plaid comes about once every four calendars.

The variations and inserts

Odds per pack (per tin for the Collector Tin):

The SPs aren't all that short. Each SP set comes to about 1.29 million cards across the three formats, about 52,000 copies of each card: about 32,700 from Mega packs, 13,200 from tins and 5,800 from calendars. That's about one for every nine copies of a base card. The SSPs are the real short prints, about 16,700 cards per set, about 670 of each card (about 570 from Mega packs and 95 from tins). A single tin is about 1.4 times as likely as a single Mega pack to hold one, but a Mega box has ten packs to a tin box's three: an SSP of either kind turns up about once every 20 Mega boxes and once every 47 tin boxes.

The Hidden Elf falls once every 20 Mega boxes and once every six tin boxes. That's about 65,400 cards, about 2,600 of each, and tins hold 56 percent of them. The Golden Metallic one-of-ones split about the same way: about 9.5 in Mega packs and 12.5 in tins, about 22 of the 25.

The ornaments come one a box, the Oversized Die-Cut Ornament in Mega boxes and the Die-Cut Ornament in tin boxes. The Oversized Die-Cut Ornament comes to about 571,750 cards, about 28,600 of each, and the tin Die-Cut Ornament to about 220,800, about 11,000 of each.

Making the Nice List falls in about three Advent packs out of four (1:1.3), about 18.5 a calendar. That's about 2.69 million cards, roughly 107,000 of each of the 25 (1:1.3 covers anything from 1:1.25 to 1:1.35, so 103,000 to 112,000). With three cards, Ohtani alone accounts for about 320,000. The Golden Metallic one-of-ones, at 1:152,439, put about 23 of the 25 in calendars, about one every 6,350 calendars.

The autographs

Topps' checklist doesn't list them, but the sheet has a Base Autographs ladder, all in Mega packs:

Topps gives no runs for any of them, but the ratios follow the base cards' ladder. Golden Glitter is the top tier of the base and relic ladders, where the odds make it the one-of-one, the Green Glitter falls 4.9 times as often (about a /5), and the Red Glitter 1.9 times as often as the Green (about a /10). If the Golden Glitters are one-of-ones, about 104 of them are in packs, so at least about 104 signers. At 104 signers, the Green Glitter fills 98 percent of a /5, the Red Glitter 94 percent of a /10 and the 25th 85 percent of a /25. The version with no color comes to about 5,560 cards, about 53 per signer.

The relics

Mega only, odds per pack (the runs in the headings are worked out from the odds below):

The Holiday Relics base version comes to about 1,519 cards, about 34 per player. The Red Glitter line comes to about 4.8 per player, a /5 with 215 of its 225 in packs (96 percent), and the Golden Glitter to 0.91 per player, a one-of-one with 41 of 45 in packs (91 percent). The Glitter Holiday is less clear. Its line puts about 541 in packs, 12.0 per player, which would be a /12 with every copy in packs or a /13 at 93 percent, and it falls 13.2 times as often as the relic Golden Glitter, which leans /13. Treat it as a /12 or /13 until serial numbers turn up. The Autograph Parallel falls 1:26,593, the same as the Red Glitter /5, about 215 cards, about five per player if all 45 sign.

The Holiday Faux Relics are thin: 1:97,752 Mega packs, about 58 cards across the five characters, about 12 of each. Their Autograph Parallel is twice as common, 1:48,038, about 119 cards, about 24 per character. Topps' checklist doesn't say who signs them.

How many packs the sheet covers

Each format has a numbered ladder of its own, so each one sets its own count.

Mega Box. The count rests on one assumption: that the Golden Glitter Holiday, the top of the Mega ladder, is a one-of-one with all 200 in packs. Then 1:28,588 times 200 cards gives 5,717,600 packs, give or take 100. The other tiers, at the runs their odds give, agree. Run times odds times 200 for the nine numbered Mega tiers:

Read exactly, the lines all fit only at about 5,717,500 packs. The Golden Glitter alone allows 5,717,500 to 5,717,700, and the Green Glitter 5,716,500 to 5,717,500. So Mega packs come to about 5,717,500: about 571,750 boxes, about 28,590 cases of 20 and about 57.2 million cards.

Hobby Tin. Taking the Golden Metallic Holiday as the one-of-one, its 1:3,312 gives 662,400, the Green Holiday Lights /5 at 1:662 and the Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10 at 1:331 give 662,000 each, and the Purple Holiday Lights at 1:33 gives 653,400 as a /99 or 660,000 as a /100, both inside its rounding. Together they allow 662,300 to 662,500. So about 662,400 tins: about 220,800 boxes of three, about 44,160 cases of five and about 39.1 million cards at 59 a tin.

Advent Calendar. At the runs explained below, the Plaid ladder gives 3,491,000 for the Red Plaid /5 (1:3,491), 3,492,000 for the Black /10 (1:1,746), 3,490,000 for the Orange /25 (1:698) and the Gold /50 (1:349), and 3,484,800 for the Green /99 (1:176). Together they allow 3,491,000 to 3,491,500 packs. So about 145,470 calendars (145,460 to 145,480), about 18,180 cases of eight and about 17.5 million cards. This ladder has no one-of-one, so its runs can't be pinned the way the other two are. Its odds fix the spacing (the Black falls 2.0 times as often as the Red, the Orange 5.0, the Gold 10.0 and the Green 19.8), which is exactly the spacing of the /5, /10, /25, /50 and /99 Chrome tiers in Mega packs, and the count takes the Plaid colors to carry those same runs. If the Plaid tiers, like the Mega Chrome tiers, put only about 96 percent of each run in packs, the calendar count drops 4 percent, to about 139,650.

No single rounding rule fits every Mega line with every run full. Rounding up can't fit the Green Glitter and the Golden Glitter at once, rounding down can't fit the Purple Glitter and the Golden Glitter, and rounding to the nearest whole number can't fit the Golden Glitter and the 25th. So either a tier isn't quite full or Topps rounded line by line, and the counts in this piece are central figures, good to about half a step of the odds either way.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

The base-card ladders set the counts, so they come out full by construction. The other numbered lines come up short:

The Chrome shortfall is the pattern above, the same 96 percent on every tier. The rest run 88 to 96 percent (the Glitter Holiday only if it's a /13; as a /12 it's complete). Topps' note at the top of the sheet says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel or variation, so some players may skip a tier, or a few copies of each stay out of packs. If the tiers that anchor each format's count also leave a few copies out of packs, every count in this piece runs a little high.

The cards with no print run

Copies of each card across all formats, at the counts above:

The base set has no line of its own, so its count is what's left of each pack after every other line on the sheet: about 8.8 base cards in a Mega pack (about 88 a box), about 51 in a tin and about 3 in an Advent pack (about 71 a calendar, counting the stickers as cards). That's about 251,000 copies of each base card from Mega packs, 169,000 from tins and 52,000 from calendars, about 472,000 in all. If the Oversized Die-Cut Ornament rides outside the 100 cards in a Mega Box, add about 2,900 per card.

The Base Stickers, 1:12 Advent packs, come to about 291,000 stickers, two a calendar. Topps' checklist doesn't list them, so there's no per-sticker count.

The 1:2 lines (the Glitter Holiday in Mega packs, and the Light Blue and White Glitter Holiday and both SPs in tins) are short enough that, if Topps rounded them to whole numbers, the rounding alone could move their counts by as much as a fifth down or a third up (the sheet does print a decimal for the Nice List's 1:1.3, so they may be closer than that). The SP figures lean on the 1:2 tin lines for about a quarter of their copies.

The rarest pulls

The toughest line in any format is the Hidden Elf Golden Metallic in Mega packs at 1:602,410, about one in 60,000 Mega boxes. In tins the same cards fall 1:52,857, about one in 17,600 boxes of three tins.

The rest of the Mega top end: the Holiday Relics Golden Glitter Holiday at 1:139,470 (about one in 13,950 boxes), the Holiday Faux Relics at 1:97,752 (about one in 9,800), the Golden Glitter autographs at 1:54,974 (about one in 5,500), the Faux Relics Autograph Parallel at 1:48,038, the Chrome SuperFractor at 1:29,776 (about one in 2,980 boxes) and the Golden Glitter base cards at 1:28,588 (about one in 2,860). In the Advent Calendar the top is the Making the Nice List Golden Metallic, about one in 6,350 calendars, then the Red Plaid /5, about one in 145. In tins, the Golden Metallic Holiday one-of-ones come about once every 1,100 boxes.

Across the product the one-of-one lines put about 782 cards in packs: 200 Golden Glitter base cards, 200 Golden Metallic Holiday base cards, 192 Chrome SuperFractors, about 104 Golden Glitter autographs, 41 Holiday Relics Golden Glitters, 22 Hidden Elf Golden Metallics and 23 Making the Nice List Golden Metallics. Mega packs hold about 547 of them, about one every 1,046 boxes. Tins hold about 213, one every 1,039 boxes. Calendars hold only the 23 Nice List one-of-ones.

What to watch

The things we're watching: the first serial numbers on every numbered line, since all the runs here come from the odds; on the Chrome ladder, whether eight Chrome cards turn out to have no Mega parallels and whether the Purple Refractor is a /299 or a /300; the Holiday Relics Glitter Holiday run (/13 or /12); a signer list for the Base Autographs and the Faux Relics autographs, which Topps' checklist doesn't include; the sticker list for the Advent Calendar; and the Hidden Elf, which Topps' product page describes as five players in five variations and Topps' checklist as 25 players. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and the parallel ladders with their print runs and odds are on the 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: October 2026