2026 Topps Chrome MLS: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Chrome MLS released September 10, and Topps posted the odds sheet and the checklist the same day. The sheet runs 139 lines in three columns (Hobby, Value and Mania), with odds and no print runs. One line settles the hobby run on its own: the MLS Trophy SuperFractor, a single card that only comes in hobby packs, falls 1:658,560, so there are 658,560 hobby packs, or 32,928 boxes. One-of-ones in the Value column do the same for Value packs: 865,200 of them, or 123,600 boxes. From there the sheet checks the print runs in our data, gives a count for the cards with no serial number, and turns up a few lines that don't add up, starting with the two autographs Topps promises in every hobby box.

The box

Topps' product page lists the hobby box at 4 cards per pack and 20 packs per box, 80 cards, with two Chrome autograph cards per box. The Value box is 4 cards per pack and 7 packs per box, 28 cards, with exclusive Ray Wave parallels. The sheet's third column, Mania, is a configuration Topps' product pages don't list, so it gets its own section further down.

The sheet doesn't say whether its odds are per pack or per box. Read per pack, the hobby autograph lines come to about 1.76 a box, close to the two on the box; read per box, they'd come to one autograph in about 11 boxes. So this piece reads the Hobby and Value columns per pack.

Here's what a hobby box holds by the sheet's odds:

The autographs come up short. Add every autograph line in the hobby column and it comes to 0.088 a pack, about 1.76 a box. Across 32,928 hobby boxes that's about 57,900 autographs, and two a box would be 65,856. The sheet leaves about 8,000 of them, one in every eight Topps promises, unaccounted for. Chrome Autographs (every version) make up 1.64 of the 1.76. A Summer Clash autograph turns up about once every 11 boxes, a Chrome Dual Autograph once every 57 and an MLS Renaissance Autograph once every 80.

A Value box is mostly base: about 18.6 base cards, 3.5 Ray Wave parallels, one Refractor, about one numbered base parallel and 3.9 inserts. An autograph falls about once every 214 Value packs, or one in 31 boxes. Across the Value run that's about 4,000 autographs, against about 57,900 in hobby.

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 576 cards across 21 sets, counting each dual autograph once.

The base set is 200 cards, and Topps tags 49 of them as rookies, among them Mateo Silvetti, Adri Mehmeti, Bryan Zamblé, Aiden Hezarkhani and Cooper Sanchez. Alongside the current players (Lionel Messi at #10, Son Heung-Min, Thomas Müller, Luis Suárez, Rodrigo De Paul, and Antoine Griezmann, in what Topps calls his first Chrome MLS cards) there's a long run of former MLS players: Zlatan Ibrahimović, David Beckham, Thierry Henry, Kaká, Andrea Pirlo, Didier Drogba, Wayne Rooney, Gareth Bale, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Carlos Valderrama, Hugo Sánchez and Tony Meola among them.

The inserts on Topps' checklist:

• Rhythm of the Game (30 cards) and Patriotic Passion (10), both new this year per Topps. Patriotic Passion is Diego Luna, Sebastian Berhalter, Tim Ream, Matt Freese, Miles Robinson, Matt Turner, Max Arfsten, Josh Sargent, Cristian Roldan and Cavan Sullivan.
• Tide Turner (30) and Wonderkids (30, 24 of them rookies).
• Pearlers and Shadow Etch, 20 cards each.
• Three five-card sets: Helix (Messi, Diego Luna, Müller, Rooney and Kaká), Chrome Anime (Messi, Marco Reus, Son, Müller and Cavan Sullivan) and Topps x Sesame Street (Elmo, Cookie Monster, Big Bird, Abby Cadabby, and Bert and Ernie).
• Two single cards, both hobby only: the MLS Trophy, which only comes as a SuperFractor, and The Grail, a Zlatan Ibrahimović card numbered G-8.

Topps' checklist has 144 different signers. Messi signs seven cards, the most of anyone, and Son five:

• Chrome Autographs, 81 signers, 21 of them rookies, including Messi, Beckham, Son, Müller, Griezmann, Casemiro and Robert Lewandowski, whose first Chrome MLS card this is, per Topps.
• Summer Clash Autographs, 17 signers, hobby only, from Messi, Son and James Rodríguez to Miguel Almirón and Matt Turner.
• MLS Renaissance Autographs, 24 cards in hobby and Mania, among them Messi and Beckham, which Topps' product page bills as on-card, plus Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets.
• Chrome Dual Autographs, 11 pairs, 10 of them from the same club (Jeff Agoos and Eddie Pope, Son and Denis Bouanga, Thierry Henry and Bradley Wright-Phillips, and David Villa and Andrea Pirlo among them), plus Messi (Inter Miami CF) with Beckham (LA Galaxy).
• National Pairings Dual Autographs, six pairs of national-team teammates, hobby only: Messi with Enzo Fernández and with Julián Alvarez (Argentina), Tyler Adams with Sebastian Berhalter and Malik Tillman with Cristian Roldan (USA), Alphonso Davies with Jonathan Osorio (Canada), and Kim Min-Jae with Son (South Korea).
• MLS All-Timers Autographs, 19 players from Alexi Lalas and Marcelo Balboa to Steven Gerrard, Giorgio Chiellini and Zlatan, and Mania Autographs, four cards (Beckham, Messi, Henry and Zlatan). Both are Mania only.
• Two patch autograph sets, both hobby only: MLS Debut Patch Autographs (39 cards: 32 rookies plus seven veterans, Son, Müller and Wessam Abou Ali among them) and MLS Country Patch Autographed Relic Cards (18).

The base parallels

The unnumbered versions, odds per pack. Mania's 3:1 and 6:1 run the other way: three Refractors and six Mania parallels for every one the column counts.

The numbered Refractor ladder runs in hobby and Mania. Topps prints no runs on the sheet, so the runs below are the ones in our data:

The FrozenFractor and SuperFractor also run in Value packs, at 1:6,240 and 1:54,075. Value gets its own numbered ladder, the Mini Diamonds:

The Mini Diamonds are the cleanest check. They're Value only and spread over the same 200 cards, so each tier's odds times its run times 200 should come out about the same. The Red is 889 times 5 times 200, or 889,000. The Black is 888,000, the Orange and the Gold 890,000, the Green 891,000, and the Purple and Blue 900,000. Against 865,200 Value packs (worked out below), that puts 95 to 97 percent of every tier in packs. A wrong run would stand out: a Black /15 would come to 1,332,000.

The Refractor ladder splits between hobby and Mania, so it has to be counted in both, but it lands the same way. At 658,560 hobby packs and the Mania count below, every tier from Gold up comes to about 95 percent of its run in packs (94.6 to 95.5 at the printed odds). That settles the runs that aren't standard: the XI Refractor puts about 2,087 cards in packs, which fits /11 (95 percent) and can't be /10, and the Pearl Refractor's 5,677 fits /30. The FrozenFractor's 954 fits a /5.

A numbered base parallel falls about every 4.5 hobby packs, about 4.5 a box. In Value it's about one a box.

The inserts

Odds per pack for the version with no parallel:

The four big inserts are seeded alike. Rhythm of the Game comes to 2,744 copies of each card in hobby (658,560 packs divided by 8, then by 30 cards) and about 4,807 in Value (865,200 divided by 6, then by 30), about 7,550 in all, and Patriotic Passion, at 1:24 and 1:18 over 10 cards, comes to exactly the same. A Value pack is a third more likely than a hobby pack to hold one.

Their parallels are another matter. Rhythm of the Game, Tide Turner and Wonderkids share every line:

In the hobby column the Green is 270 times 99, or 26,730. The Purple is 26,775, the Gold 26,750, the Orange 26,750, the Black 26,780 and the Red 26,775, all within a fifth of a percent, and Patriotic Passion, with a third as many cards, runs three times as long at every tier (79,925 to 80,350). So the runs in our data hold. Unlike the base versions, the parallels lean hobby: about 86 percent of each tier is in hobby packs.

The smaller inserts have short ladders of their own:

These lines count copies almost exactly. The Pearlers put 191 Cherry Pearls, 95 White Pearls and 19 Golden Pearls in packs, 95 percent of a /10, a /5 and a 1/1 on 20 cards. Chrome Anime comes to 49 Black Refractors and 24 Reds across its five cards, which fits a Black /10 and a Red /5, and the Sesame Street Color-Match comes to 24, which fits a /5. Topps doesn't print those runs, so treat them as a fit, not a fact.

The autographs

Chrome Autographs has two hobby ladders, Refractor and Wave, and a Mania ladder of its own. Odds per pack:

The Mania versions are Red/White/Blue: X-Fractor /99 at 1:12, Shimmer /50 at 1:18, Pulsar /25 at 1:34 and Refractor /10 at 1:82.

The Refractor and Wave ladders are seeded to the same totals: across hobby and Value, the Red Refractor and the Red Wave each come to about 361 cards, and the Orange Refractor and Orange Wave about 1,752. The SuperFractor line puts 73 of the 81 in packs (70 in hobby, 3 in Value), and every tier from Orange /25 to Red /5 comes to 70 to 72 signers' worth. The top of the ladder holds. The bottom doesn't, and more on that below.

The other autograph sets, odds per pack:

The All-Timers colors are Sparkle versions, and the Chrome Dual base version also falls 1:21,630 in Value. The Son Heung-Min above, a Summer Clash at 01/10, fits the Black.

Mania Autographs has its own ladder: base 1:688, Black Prism /10 1:1,040, Red Lava /5 1:2,028, Black Lava /3 1:3,380, Pink Lava /2 1:5,070 and SuperFractor 1:10,140, all Mania only. MLS Renaissance Autographs runs in hobby and Mania: base 1:2,902 and 1:624, Gold /10 1:5,629 and 1:1,352, Ruby /5 1:11,355 and 1:2,704, and Platinum 1/1 1:54,880 and 1:13,520.

The patch autographs are one line each, both hobby only: MLS Debut Patch Autographs at 1:17,331 and MLS Country Patch Autographed Relic Cards at 1:36,587.

How many packs the sheet covers

The MLS Trophy SuperFractor is the key. It's one card, Topps' checklist lists it as hobby only, and the sheet has it at 1:658,560, one copy in 658,560 hobby packs. The other hobby-only lines with one copy per card say the same (the Country Patch line, if there's one of each):

Two lines that also run in Value land on it exactly: 140 times 4,704 (the base SuperFractor) and 70 times 9,408 (the Chrome Autographs SuperFractor) are both 658,560, so hobby holds 140 of the 200 base SuperFractors and 70 of the 81 autograph SuperFractors.

This sheet rounds up. 658,560 divided by 11 is 59,869.1, and the Chrome Dual SuperFractor prints as 1:59,870. The Patriotic Passion SuperFractor works out to 1:73,173.3 and prints as 1:73,174. So counts worked back from the odds are floors: exact to the copy on long hobby lines, looser on short ones like 1:2.

So the hobby run is 658,560 packs. At 20 packs a box that's 32,928 boxes, and at 4 cards a pack about 2.63 million cards.

The Value column has one-of-ones of its own. Patriotic Passion has 10 cards, and its SuperFractor falls 1:73,174 in hobby, 9 copies. The tenth is the Value copy, at 1:865,200. The Chrome Anime, Helix and Sesame Street SuperFractors each put three in hobby and fall 1:865,200 in Value as well. And the other Value SuperFractor lines are whole fractions of the same number: 1:216,300 (Rhythm of the Game, Tide Turner and Wonderkids) is 4 copies, 1:288,400 (Golden Pearl, Shadow Etch and Chrome Autographs) is 3, and the base SuperFractor's 1:54,075 is 16. So the Value run is 865,200 packs, 123,600 boxes at 7 packs a box, about 3.46 million cards. That's about 1.3 Value packs for every hobby pack, and 3.75 Value boxes for every hobby box. Not every Value line comes out to whole cards at that count (the FrozenFractor's 1:6,240 works out to 138.7, and most of the Value colors on the four big inserts land between whole numbers too), so treat the Value counts in this piece as close rather than exact. The one-of-one lines, which have to come out whole, all do.

The Mania column

Topps' product pages don't list a Mania box, and the column doesn't use one unit throughout. The base and insert lines fit 2,700. The Chrome Anime, Helix and Sesame Street SuperFractors each have three copies in hobby and one in Value, so the fifth of each set is the Mania copy, at 1:2,700, and the base Red Refractor (1:54) and FrozenFractor (1:108) come to exactly 50 and 25 copies at 2,700.

The Mania autograph lines fit 40,560. The four Mania Autographs SuperFractors at 1:10,140, the eight Pink Lava /2s at 1:5,070, the 12 Black Lava /3s at 1:3,380 and the 20 Red Lava /5s at 1:2,028 all multiply out to 40,560, and so do the 19 All-Timers SuperFractors at 1:2,135 (40,565). That's about 15 times 2,700. Topps hasn't said what the column counts, so the Mania figures in this piece are copies, which come out the same either way.

Read that way, the Mania lines come to about 16,200 Base Mania cards, 8,100 Refractors and about 7,100 numbered base parallels, plus about 10,800 autographs. That's about four autographs for each of the 2,700 units the base lines fit, but with no configuration from Topps, this piece doesn't turn either count into packs or boxes.

That's about 72,700 autographs in all, about 80 percent of them in hobby.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

At those counts, the base ladders come up a few percent short at every tier:

The sheet rounds its odds up, so the Aqua to Purple rows, built on short lines (1:18 to 1:60, and Mania's 1:2 to 1:4), are floors and could be as full as the tiers above them. The tiers with long lines leave little room: about 5 percent of each numbered base tier from Gold up, and about 3 percent of each Mini Diamonds tier from Gold up, isn't in packs. The inserts land the same way, at 95 to 97 percent of every tier, with 29 of the 30 SuperFractors in each of Rhythm of the Game, Tide Turner and Wonderkids, all 10 Patriotic Passion SuperFractors, and 19 of 20 for Pearlers and Shadow Etch.

The autographs are another story:

Chrome Autographs thins out down the ladder. From Blue up, the Wave tiers match the Refractor tiers within about 5 percent, so the pattern isn't one bad line. The top tiers fit about 72 signers, the 73 SuperFractors suggest about eight of the 81 aren't in packs (or at least not at the top of the ladder), and below Gold each tier fills less: Purple about 59 signers' worth, Green 53, Blue 49 and Aqua 24. The Aqua lines are the odd ones out. At /199 the Aqua Refractor should be the most common color, but at 1:138 it falls less often than the Blue /150 (1:91) or the Green /99 (1:127). Either fewer signers have each color down the ladder, with few Aquas at all, or the Aqua and Blue runs in our data are too high. The Aqua Wave, at about 14 signers' worth, is thinner still. The Mania Red/White/Blue ladder comes to about 45 to 50 signers' worth at /10, /25 and /50 and about 34 at /99. Topps prints no autograph runs, so treat everything below Gold as unsettled until serial numbers turn up.

Summer Clash Green and All-Timers Green and Purple. The Summer Clash Green /99, at 1:1,136, falls less often than the set's Purple /75 (1:751) and Gold /50 (1:845), and comes to about six signers' worth. The All-Timers Purple /75 (1:56) is longer than the Gold /50 (1:52), and Purple and Green each come to about half their runs. Higher up, both sets nearly fill: 97 to 100 percent from Black up in Summer Clash and from Orange up in All-Timers.

MLS Renaissance fits 15 cards, not 24. Its lines put 15 Platinums in packs (12 in hobby, 3 in Mania), 73 Rubies and 147 Golds: every Platinum, 97 percent of the Rubies and 98 percent of the Golds on 15 cards, and about 61 percent on 24. Topps' checklist numbers 15 of the 24 with a 1 at the end and nine with a 2 (Pirlo, Schweinsteiger, Lampard, Bale, Kaká, Busquets, Henry, Rooney and Zlatan). The sheet doesn't say whether those nine are held out of packs.

National Pairings fits three pairs, not six. The lines put 3 SuperFractors, 15 Red /5s and 20 base versions in hobby packs: every SuperFractor and Red for three pairs, or half of each for six.

Chrome Dual Autographs looks one pair short below the SuperFractor. Its 11 SuperFractors fit all 11 pairs, but the Red /5 comes to 49 and the Black /10 to 98, 98 percent of 10 pairs' worth. The Orange /25 comes to about 219, 88 percent of 10. One pair looks to come only as a SuperFractor, or to skip the colors.

The cards with no print run

Copies of each card across every format, from the pack counts above:

Summer Clash and MLS All-Timers aren't in the table because the sheet gives neither set a line without a color: every copy it counts for them is one of the numbered versions above.

The base set has no line of its own besides 1:1, so its count is what's left of each 4-card pack after every other line on the sheet: about 2.77 base cards in a hobby pack and 2.65 in a Value pack at the printed odds. That's about 9,100 copies of each base card from hobby packs and about 11,500 from Value packs, about 20,600 in all. Mania has no plain base line, only the Base Mania version. Because the sheet rounds its odds up, the counts on the short lines (1:2 to 1:8) are floors: the Ray Wave could run up to twice as high, the Prism up to a quarter higher, and the base Refractor and the four big inserts up to about a fifth, and every extra card there comes out of the base count. At the far end of that rounding the base set would be about 17,400 copies a card, so read 20,600 as a ceiling.

The scarcest cards without a serial number are the patch autographs. The Debut Patch line puts 38 cards in packs across 39 players and the Country Patch line 18 across 18, about one of each. That fits one-of-ones, but neither Topps' sheet nor its checklist says they're numbered. Among the rest, the National Pairings base version, at about 20 cards in all, is the toughest, then the Renaissance and Mania Autographs base versions at about 12 to 19 a card.

Most of the Chrome Autographs base version comes out of Value packs: about 2,530 of the 4,087, against about 1,557 in hobby. It's the only autograph in the product that's easier per pack in Value (1:342) than in hobby (1:423).

The Grail is a single card, Zlatan Ibrahimović's G-8, and the sheet puts 72 copies in hobby packs, about one in every 457 hobby boxes.

The rarest pulls

The toughest line on the sheet is the MLS Trophy SuperFractor at 1:658,560: one card, one copy, somewhere in the 32,928 hobby boxes.

In hobby, next come four lines at 1:219,520: the Chrome Anime, Helix and Sesame Street SuperFractors and the National Pairings Dual Autographs SuperFractor, three copies each, about one in 11,000 boxes. In Value, the Patriotic Passion, Chrome Anime, Helix and Sesame Street SuperFractors fall 1:865,200, one copy each in the whole Value run. In Mania, the longest lines are the MLS Renaissance Platinum (1:13,520, three copies) and the Mania Autographs SuperFractor (1:10,140, four).

Across the product, the one-of-one lines put 484 cards in packs: 191 base SuperFractors, 151 insert one-of-ones and 142 autograph one-of-ones, not counting the patch autographs. Hobby gets 377 of them, about one every 87 hobby boxes, Mania 66 and Value 41, about one every 3,000 Value boxes.

What to watch

The things we're watching: where the missing hobby autographs are, since the sheet gives about 1.76 a box against Topps' two; Topps' configuration for Mania; the first serial numbers on Chrome Autographs below Gold, above all the Aqua and Blue; the Summer Clash Green and All-Timers Green and Purple; whether the nine Renaissance cards numbered with a 2 and three of the six National Pairings are in packs; which Chrome Dual pair skips the colors; and whether the Debut Patch and Country Patch autographs are numbered. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The cards and odds in this piece come from Topps' checklist and odds sheet. Our checklist and parallels for the set, with print runs and odds, are on the 2026 Topps Chrome MLS release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: September 2026