2025 Topps Inception Baseball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2025 Topps Inception Baseball released June 19, a hobby-only box of seven cards with one autograph. Topps' odds sheet is a single hobby column of 108 lines with no print runs, but the smallest autograph sets pin the run down to the box: 103,896 boxes, or 12,987 eight-box cases. From there the sheet checks the print runs in our data, turns up several that don't hold, and gives a count for the base set and for every card that carries no serial number.

The box

Topps' product page lists 7 cards and one autograph per box, and 8 boxes to a sealed case. The box itself reads "1 autograph or autograph relic card per box." Topps gives no pack count, and the sheet doesn't say whether its odds are per pack or per box. Its autograph lines add up to about 1.1, against Topps' one per box. Read as odds per pack in a box of two or more packs, that would put two or more autographs in every box, so the sheet only adds up as odds per box (in effect, one pack a box). That's how every figure here reads it.

Six lines on the sheet print as clock times, a spreadsheet slip: 01:44:00 for the Base Blue, and 01:15:00, 01:24:00, 01:30:00 and 01:42:00 for the Inception Autograph Patch and its Red, Aqua and Gold, plus 01:33:00 for the Jumbo Patch. They read 1:44, 1:15, 1:24, 1:30, 1:42 and 1:33, and that's how they fit the ladders below.

Here's what a box holds, adding up the sheet's lines:

The hits break down by set like this:

The autograph lines total about 1.10 a box, a little over the one Topps promises, so roughly one box in ten would hold a second. Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs alone account for about half of all the autographs in the product.

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 676 cards in 20 sections (702 lines, since it lists each player on a multi-player card separately).

The base set is 100 cards, and Topps tags 56 of them as rookies, among them Roki Sasaki (#19), Jacob Wilson (#29), James Wood (#31), Kristian Campbell (#36), Cam Smith (#54), Dylan Crews (#57) and Nick Kurtz (#89). The veterans include Aaron Judge (#51), Paul Skenes (#52), Shohei Ohtani (#69) and Mike Trout (#100). The Base Short Prints, #101 to #125, are 25 more cards that Topps files under its insert heading: eight rookies (Dalton Rushing, Matt Shaw, Ben Rice, Jace Jung, Drake Baldwin, Connor Norby, Denzel Clarke and Coby Mayo) and 17 veterans, from Alex Bregman to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with Clayton Kershaw, Elly De La Cruz and Tarik Skubal among them.

Every other card is signed: 551 cards from 193 signers. James Wood signs 15 of them, the most of anyone, Roki Sasaki 14, and Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz 13 each.

The autograph relics, in Topps' order, with rookie counts as Topps' checklist tags them:

• Inception Autograph Patch Cards, 56 players, 50 of them tagged rookies.
• Inception Autograph Jumbo Patch Cards, 35, with 28 rookies. The seven veterans are Cal Raleigh, Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Holliday, Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal.
• Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat, 44 rookies, each in six versions named for parts of the cap: Team Logo, New Era Logo, MLB Silhouetted Batter, Button, Laundry Tag and 59Fifty.
• Inception Autograph Game Relics, 47 rookies, in Sock, Batting Glove and Fielding Glove versions.
• Inception Autograph Relic Book, 42 players, 31 of them rookies, plus veterans like Bobby Witt Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
• Gameday Gear Autograph Relic Book, 35 rookies.
• Dual Autograph Relic Book, 12 pairs: Acuña and Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, Holliday and Chourio, Henderson and De La Cruz, Trout and Bryce Harper, Jasson Domínguez and Judge, Ohtani and Sasaki, Wood and Crews, Henderson and Witt, Kurtz and Wilson, Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga, and Yamamoto and Sasaki.
• MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics, 59 cards, all tagged rookies. Chandler Simpson's, below, marks his first career hit, a double on April 19, 2025.
• MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Home Run, six: Braxton Fulford, Connor Norby, Greg Jones, Jhonkensy Noel, Max Muncy and Niko Kavadas.
• MLB Bat Knob Sticker Autograph Cards, new to Inception according to Topps' page. There are six: Brooks Lee, Griffin Conine, Jacob Wilson and three of James Wood.

The autographs, again with Topps' rookie tags:

• Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs, 88 players, the biggest autograph set in the product. Topps tags 67 as rookies. The rest include Skenes, Holliday, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Wyatt Langford, Garrett Crochet, Yamamoto and Imanaga.
• Inception Signings, 39, with 17 rookies and stars like Judge, Trout, Skenes, Witt and Juan Soto.
• Inception Molecular Autographs (23 players, 11 rookies) and Inception Immersion Autographs (19, nine rookies).
• Dawn of Greatness Autographs, 15 retired greats: Adrian Beltré, Barry Bonds, Carlton Fisk, Chipper Jones, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Fernando Valenzuela, George Brett, Hideki Matsui, Ichiro, Miguel Cabrera, Mark McGwire, Nolan Ryan, Robin Yount and Vladimir Guerrero.
• Inception Transformation Autographs, 15 veterans and retired players, from Derek Jeter and Roger Clemens to Freddie Freeman and Alex Bregman.
• Inception Dual Autographs, six pairs: Smith and Campbell, Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, Cade Horton and Shaw, Yamamoto and Sasaki, Wood and Crews, and Kurtz and Wilson.
• Inception Triple Autographs, four trios: Acuña, Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.; Horton, Moisés Ballesteros and Shaw; Rushing, Hyeseong Kim and Sasaki; and Yamamoto, Imanaga and Sasaki.

The base ladder

Odds per box. Topps prints no runs, so the runs are the ones in our data:

Every tier is spread over the same 100 cards, so if the runs are right, run times odds should come out about the same. From Hot Pink up it does, at 1,080 to 1,100. The short lines scatter more (1,089 to 1,200), because a figure like 1:6 or 1:8 can't be printed any finer. A wrong run would stick out: a Hot Pink at /25 would come to 775. So the base runs in our data hold.

The plates don't read the way they're printed. Taken one color at a time, 1:270 would put about 385 Cyan plates in boxes, nearly four for each of the 100 cards, and a printing plate is one of a kind. Read as all four colors together, it's about 385 of the 400 base plates, 96 percent, the same share as the base Inception 1/1s. So 1:270 reads as the odds of a plate of any color, and each color on its own falls about 1:1,080.

A numbered base parallel of any color turns up about once every 1.8 boxes.

The autograph relic ladders

The two patch sets, odds per box:

Topps' product page shows a Nick Kurtz patch autograph on a gold background, numbered 01/50, which fits a Gold /50. The Drake Baldwin Jumbo Patch below is on an orange background, numbered 01/10.

The Game Relics have no plain version. They come as Sock, Batting Glove and Fielding Glove relics, each numbered to 25 in our data, with one-of-ones on top:

The Jumbo Relic Hat has no plain version either. All six of its versions fall 1:473, and our data lists each at /5.

The book cards and the First Milestones:

Our data calls the Relic Book's Letters version "Jersey Letter." The Chandler Simpson First Milestone below is light blue and numbered 1/5, which fits the Sky.

The autograph ladders

Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs (88 players), odds per box:

The numbered tiers line up with each other, at 1,485 to 1,650, so the runs in our data are in the right proportion. The one-of-one sits well below them, which comes up again further down.

Inception Signings has no plain version on the sheet. It comes as Silver at 1:33, Gold at 1:119 and Gold Inscriptions at 1:2,886. Our data lists those at /125, /25 and 1/1.

The four insert autograph sets share one ladder:

Our data lists the Red at /99, the Gold at /50, the Blue at /25 and the Orange at /10 on all four. The odds don't back that up, as the next sections show.

The multi-signed cards have a short ladder: Inception Dual Autographs at 1:693 for the base version, 1:3,464 for the Sky /5 and 1:17,316 for the Inception 1/1, and Inception Triple Autographs at 1:2,598, 1:5,195 and 1:25,974.

How many boxes the sheet covers

The Triple Autographs one-of-one is the key. There are four trios, and the Inception 1/1 falls 1:25,974. Four times 25,974 is 103,896. The other small one-of-one lines say the same:

This sheet rounds up. At 103,896 boxes, the Autograph Patch one-of-ones come to one every 1,855.3 boxes and print as 1:1,856, and the Dawn of Greatness ones to one every 6,926.4 and print as 1:6,927. Rounded to the nearest box, those would read 1:1,855 and 1:6,926. The Home Run set settles it. Its Inception line, 1:20,780, fits five cards: 103,896 divided by 5 is 20,779.2, which only prints as 1:20,780 if it's rounded up. Rounded up, the Triple line allows 103,893 to 103,896 boxes and the Home Run line 103,896 to 103,900. Only one number fits both. Rounded to the nearest box, no count works at all: the Triple one-of-ones would need 103,894 to 103,897 boxes, and the 56 Autograph Patch one-of-ones at least 103,908.

So the hobby run is 103,896 boxes. At 8 boxes a case that's exactly 12,987 cases, and at 7 cards a box, 727,272 cards. The autograph lines come to about 114,200 autographs in those boxes: about 40,200 autograph relics and patches, and about 73,900 autographs with no relic.

Because the sheet rounds up, every count worked back from its odds is a floor. On the long lines the floor is the count. On short lines it's loose: 1:6 covers anything from one card every six boxes up to just under one every five, so a count from it could be up to a fifth higher.

Not every numbered card is in a box

The base one-of-ones tell the first part of the story. If all 100 base Inception 1/1s were in boxes, 1:1,083 would mean 108,300 boxes, more than the four Triple one-of-ones allow. At 103,896 boxes there are 96 in boxes, and the rest of the base ladder lands in the same place:

That's about what you'd get if four of the 100 base cards had no parallels, or if about 4 percent of every tier stayed out of boxes.

The autograph patches fill at the top and thin out further down:

The Jumbo Patch runs one card short. Its one-of-one line fits 34 cards, not 35, and so does the Orange (exactly 340). The Blue (852 to 858) and the Gold (about 1,650 to 1,675) sit much closer to 34 players' worth (850 and 1,700) than to 35 (875 and 1,750). Either one of the 35 players has no numbered versions, or one card's never went into boxes.

The Game Relics split by glove. The Sock line comes to about 1,175 cards, exactly 47 players at /25, and the Sock Logo to 47. The Batting Glove comes to about 875, which is 35 players at /25, and both of its one-of-one lines to 35. The Fielding Glove comes to about 1,050, which is 42 players at /25, and its Prime to 42. So the odds fit a Sock relic for every player, a Batting Glove relic for 35 and a Fielding Glove relic for 42. Topps' sheet doesn't say which. That's about 3,250 Game Relics in all.

The hats are complete. Each of the six hat versions comes to 220 cards, exactly 44 players at /5, so all 1,320 hat cards, 30 per player, are in boxes.

The Relic Book is mostly complete. The Laundry Tag /2 puts all 84 in boxes and the MLB Silhouetted Batter all 42. The Patch /2 puts 82 in boxes (41 players' worth) and the Letters /2 76 (38 players' worth).

The Dual Autograph Relic Book Patch looks like a /3. Our data lists it at /5. The odds put exactly 36 in boxes, three for each of the 12 pairs. A /5 on all 12 would be 60 cards and would print about 1:1,732, not 1:2,886.

The First Milestones have three one-of-ones too many. The Blue, Orange and Sky put 98 to 100 percent of 59 cards' worth in boxes (about 1,463 of 1,475 Blues, 580 of 590 Oranges and 289 of 295 Skys). The Inception line puts 62 one-of-ones in boxes, three more than the 59 cards on Topps' checklist. For 59 it would read about 1:1,761. Either the checklist is missing a few First Milestone cards or the line is off.

One Home Run card is missing its top tiers. The Home Run Blue puts 150 in boxes, all six players at /25. The Orange (50), Sky (25) and Inception (5) each fit five players, not six.

Rookie and Emerging Stars runs about three quarters full. All 88 one-of-ones are in boxes, but each numbered tier comes up short by about the same share: about 12,990 of 17,512 Purples (74 to 85 percent), 8,660 of 11,000 Greens (79 to 86 percent), 6,930 of 8,712 Reds (80 to 85 percent), 4,950 of 6,600 Aquas (75 to 79 percent), 3,150 of 4,400 Golds (72 to 74 percent), 1,600 of 2,200 Blues (73 to 74 percent) and 684 of 880 Oranges (78 percent). That's what you'd see if only about 63 to 70 of the 88 players had the color ladder. Topps' note at the top of the sheet says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel.

Inception Signings fits 35 or 36 signers. The Gold comes to about 875, exactly 35 signers at /25, and the Gold Inscriptions to 36 of 39. The Silver, at 1:33, comes to about 3,150 to 3,250 cards, about 81 to 83 per signer, two thirds of the /125 in our data. Until a serial number turns up, treat the Silver's /125 as unconfirmed.

The four insert autograph sets don't fit their runs. Their one-of-ones are all in boxes, but every numbered tier comes up short, and the bigger the run, the bigger the gap:

A Red /99 should turn up about twice as often as a Gold /50, so the Gold odds should be about twice the Red odds. Here they're only 1.3 to 1.7 times. Per card, the odds put about 37 to 52 Reds, 26 to 37 Golds, 15 to 20 Blues and 7 to 8 Oranges in boxes. Either many players skip the bigger tiers or the runs are smaller than our data says. Topps hasn't published them. Until serial numbers settle it, treat the Red, Gold and Blue runs on these four sets as unconfirmed.

The multi-signed cards are complete: all 30 Dual Autographs Sky /5s and all 20 Triple Sky /5s are in boxes, along with every one-of-one.

The cards with no print run

At 103,896 boxes, here's about how many of each card are in boxes, all of them in hobby:

The Bat Knob Sticker cards are one of a kind: six cards and six in boxes. The James Wood and Jacob Wilson cards on our release page are marked 1-of-1 on the knob frame.

A few of these come out to round numbers. The Dual Autographs base version works out to exactly 25 of each pair, the Triple base version to exactly 10, the Home Run base version to at least 594 cards (99 per player) and the Gameday Gear base version to 175 (exactly five per player). That looks like serial numbering, but the sheet gives no runs for them, and Topps' preview of the Campbell and Smith dual autograph shows no number on the front.

The base set has no line of its own beyond 1:1, the figure the sheet prints for anything that comes at least once a box, and the Green is 1:1 too. Everything else on the sheet adds up to about 2.18 cards a box: 0.57 numbered base parallels and plates, 0.51 short prints and 1.10 autographs. That leaves about 4.82 of the 7 cards for base cards and Greens. With at least one Green a box, there are at most about 3.82 base cards a box, about 3,970 of each of the 100 base cards. If the Green is exactly one a box, that's the count, and the Green comes to about 1,039 of each card. Since the other lines are floors, 3,970 is the most the sheet allows.

The Short Prints at 1:2 come to at least 51,948 cards, at least 2,078 of each, so a short print is at least about half as common as a base card. Its Alpha parallel, at 1:80, works out to about 52 of each card, with no run in our data.

After the one-of-one Bat Knob cards, the scarcest signed cards with no print run are the Gameday Gear Autograph Relic Book base version (five of each card) and the Triple Autographs base version (10). At the other end, the Rookie and Emerging Stars base version is the most common autograph in the product, at least 17,316 cards, at least about 197 of each player.

The rarest pulls

The toughest line on the sheet is the Inception Triple Autographs one-of-one at 1:25,974 boxes, about one in 3,250 cases. There are four, all in boxes: Acuña, Guerrero Jr. and Tatis; Horton, Ballesteros and Shaw; Rushing, Kim and Sasaki; and Yamamoto, Imanaga and Sasaki.

Next are the Home Run Inception 1/1s at 1:20,780 (five in boxes), then the Dual Autographs one-of-ones and the Bat Knob Sticker cards, six each at 1:17,316. A Bat Knob card turns up about once every 2,165 cases.

After those come the Dual Autograph Relic Book one-of-ones at 1:8,658 (12 cards), the Dawn of Greatness and Transformation one-of-ones at 1:6,927 (15 each, the Bonds, Ichiro, Jeter and Ryan cards among them), the Immersion one-of-ones at 1:5,469 and the Triple Autographs Sky /5 at 1:5,195 (20 cards).

Across the product, the odds put 769 one-of-ones in boxes, not counting printing plates: 96 base Inceptions and 673 signed one-of-ones. That's about one every 135 boxes, and a signed one-of-one about every 154. The roughly 385 printing plates add one about every 270 boxes.

What to watch

The things we're watching: serial numbers on the Red, Gold and Blue versions of Dawn of Greatness, Transformation, Molecular and Immersion, and on the Inception Signings Silver; whether the Dual Autograph Relic Book Patch is a /3; whether Topps adds First Milestone cards to its checklist or revises that one-of-one line; which Home Run card has no Orange, Sky or Inception version; which players have Batting Glove and Fielding Glove relics; and whether the base versions of the Dual Autographs, Triple Autographs, Home Run and Gameday Gear cards turn out to be numbered. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2025 Topps Inception Baseball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: June 2026