2025 Topps Chrome Black Football: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2025 Topps Chrome Black Football released July 10, 2026. Topps posted the checklist on June 8 and the odds sheet on July 8. The sheet runs 84 lines in a single Hobby column with no print runs, and it's really two sheets in one: the regular cards are figured per pack and the autographs per box. Seven SuperFractor lines put the regular run at about 156,940 packs, or about 78,470 boxes at two packs a box. Five autograph SuperFractor lines put it at about 79,670 boxes. Those are about 1,200 boxes apart, so read the run as about 79,000 boxes and about 1.02 million cards. From there the sheet backs up the ladders on every set and puts a count on every card with no print run. It also turns up two things that don't sit right: the Black Lightning and Nocturnal lines look swapped, and most of the 59 veteran signers seem to skip the longer autograph tiers.

The box

Topps' product page lists 6 cards per pack, 2 packs per box and 1 autograph per box. The box itself says 13 trading cards, one encased Chrome autograph and two parallels per box, and it's marked hobby only. The autograph can be a redemption card. Neither lists how many boxes make a case, so the figures here stay per pack and per box.

The sheet doesn't say what its odds are per, and the two parts of the box work differently. In a regular pack, the Base line is 3:1 and the Rookie line is 2:1, which is five of the six cards. Every other regular line, parallels and inserts together, adds up to 1.05 a pack. That's the sixth card, and about 2.1 a box against the two parallels on the box.

The autograph lines add up to 1.05 too, and a box holds one autograph, so those odds are per box. Read per regular pack, they'd put two autographs in every box. Topps' sheet for 2025-26 Chrome Black Basketball prints the same split as two columns, hobby packs and the autograph pack. This one runs them together. Throughout this piece, regular lines are per pack and autograph lines are per box.

Add up the lines and here's what an average box holds:

Rookies Autographs are about two autographs in three. The sheet doesn't say why its autograph lines come to 1.05 on a box that holds one, and rounding can't explain it: this sheet rounds up (more on that below), so the real total would sit higher, not lower. About 36 percent of autographs are the no-color versions of Autographs and Rookies Autographs, about 13 percent are their Refractors, and about half are on the numbered tiers. The Black Lightning and Nocturnal rows are as printed, and those lines get their own section below.

Topps' product page calls Rookies Design Variation, Hit the Lights and Black Lightning case hits, but they aren't close to alike. A Rookies Design Variation of any version is one box in 12, and a Hit the Lights or Black Lightning is one in 100 or more.

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 458 cards in 12 sections, with 171 different players. It lists 475 names, since each of the 17 Pitch Black Pairings cards carries two.

The base set is 100 veterans, from Kyler Murray (#1) to Jayden Daniels (#100). The 50 Rookies run from Will Johnson (#101) to Jaylin Lane (#150), with Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka. The sheet treats the two as separate sets with separate ladders.

The inserts:

• Rookies Design Variation, 30 cards: 27 from the Rookies set, plus Isaac TeSlaa, Brashard Smith and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who aren't in the 150.
• Black Lightning and Hit the Lights, 25 cards each, and Nocturnal and Depths of Darkness, 20 each. Each one closes with six rookies.

The inserts also bring in five retired names. Tom Brady is a Patriot on Black Lightning and a Buccaneer on Depths of Darkness, and Peyton Manning is a Bronco on Hit the Lights and a Colt on Nocturnal. Bo Jackson is a Los Angeles Raider on Hit the Lights, and Ray Lewis and Barry Sanders are on Depths of Darkness.

There are 188 autograph cards from 117 signers:

• Autographs, 59 veterans, all of them from the base set.
• Rookies Autographs, 40: 37 from the Rookies set, plus Dillon Gabriel, Dylan Sampson and TeSlaa. Thirteen of the 50 Rookies don't sign here, among them Abdul Carter, Jalen Milroe and Quinn Ewers.
• Super Futures Autographs, 38, with 24 tagged as rookies. One of them, Isaiah Bond, isn't anywhere else on the checklist.
• Ivory Autographs, 34, with 12 rookies, plus Brady, John Elway, Jerry Rice, Drew Brees, Randy Moss and Roger Staubach.
• Pitch Black Pairings Dual Autographs, 17 cards of two signers each. Nine pair a current player with a former star of the same franchise: Bo Nix and Peyton Manning, Brock Purdy and Joe Montana, Drake Maye and Brady, Dak Prescott and Troy Aikman, Dart and Eli Manning, Jahmyr Gibbs and Barry Sanders, Malaki Starks and Ray Lewis, Malik Nabers and Odell Beckham Jr., and Ward and Warren Moon. Ward is also on one of the eight current pairs, with Daniels.

Six rookies are in eight of the 12 sections: Ward, Dart, Luther Burden III, Quinshon Judkins, Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson.

The base ladder

Base and Rookies share a ladder. Odds per pack. Topps' sheet prints no serial numbers, so the print runs below come from our data and the odds, checked against Topps' previews. The Refractor is the one with no serial number behind it, so it reads "about":

Counting every color and taking the Refractor at /299, each card has 1,103 numbered copies, from the Refractor down to the SuperFractor.

Multiply a tier's print run by its odds and by the cards in its set, and the ladders agree. On the base side, the Blue, Purple, Gold and Orange all come to 165,000 (11 x 150 x 100, 22 x 75 x 100, 33 x 50 x 100 and 66 x 25 x 100), the Rose Gold Wave to 163,500 and the White and Red to 163,000. The Green is the high one at 168,300 (17 x 99 x 100), and that's its short line rounding: at 1:16.5 it would sit with the rest. The rookies land in the same place, from 163,000 to 165,000, because their odds are double on a set half the size. A wrong run would stick out: a /20 Rose Gold Wave would come to 218,000. So the runs hold. The Dak Prescott below is numbered 01/75, which fits the Purple, and Topps' preview of a Tyler Shough Rookies Autographs Rose Gold Wave is numbered 10/15.

The Refractor is the softest number on the ladder. Topps' sheet doesn't print a run for it and none of its previews shows one. The Rookies line, 11 x 299 x 50, comes to 164,450, right with the rest, and a /250 would come to 137,500. So the odds rule out a /250, but they only place the run somewhere from about 285 to about 325, which can't separate a /299 from a /300. That's why the table says about. The base line at 1:6 is too short to read closely, but it fits too.

Apart from that Green, those totals sit 4 or 5 percent above the packs the sheet actually covers. More on that below.

The inserts

Odds per pack:

Topps calls the Depths of Darkness no-color line a Refractor. The Rookies Design Variation colors are seeded the same way as the base ladder: the Gold, Orange and Red all come to 163,500 (109 x 50 x 30, 218 x 25 x 30 and 1,090 x 5 x 30), and the White to 163,200. So is the Depths of Darkness Red, at 1,635 x 5 x 20. Topps' previews of an Emeka Egbuka Rookies Design Variation numbered 01/10 and a Myles Garrett Depths of Darkness SuperFractor numbered 1/1 fit those lines.

Look across Hit the Lights, Nocturnal and Black Lightning and something's off. Hit the Lights and Nocturnal have the same odds on sets of different sizes, and Black Lightning, with as many cards as Hit the Lights, runs longer. That gets its own section below.

The autographs

Odds per box. The two main sets share a ladder:

The Rookies Autographs column runs the way a ladder should, longer as the runs get shorter. The Autographs column doesn't. The Gold /50 at 1:37 is the easiest color on the set, easier than the Green /99 (1:45) or the Blue /150 (1:76), and the Blue is rarer than the Orange /25. Those are the lines as Topps printed them, and the reason looks to be how many signers each tier covers (see below).

The short ladders, odds per box. The first line on each is the one the sheet calls the Refractor:

Two of those Refractors show serial numbers on Topps' previews: a Caleb Williams and Luther Burden III Pitch Black Pairings numbered 30/30 and an Ashton Jeanty Ivory Autograph numbered 03/50. We haven't seen a serial on a Super Futures Refractor, but its odds fit a /99. The Bo Nix below, numbered 10/25, fits the Orange, and Topps' Tetairoa McMillan SuperFractor preview is numbered 1/1. On Pitch Black Pairings the Orange /25 (1:246) falls more often than the /30 Refractor (1:380), and the signer counts further down show why.

How many packs the sheet covers

Start with the autographs. A one-of-one line counts copies directly, so its odds times the cards in its set is the box count, if every one is in a box:

Five sets of very different sizes land within 30 of each other, so every autograph SuperFractor looks to be in a box.

This sheet rounds up, not to the nearest whole number, which matters for reading those figures. The Autographs White /10 is 590 cards, one every 135.03 boxes, printed 1:136. The nearest would read 1:135. The Red (270.07, printed 1:271) and the Rose Gold Wave (90.02, printed 1:91) do the same. So each product above is a ceiling, and the five lines together leave room for 79,663 to 79,679. The autographs are figured on about 79,670 boxes.

The regular SuperFractor lines don't agree that way. Read as full sets, they run from 142,680 (Nocturnal) to 230,800 (Black Lightning), and even the base and Rookies lines miss each other, at 163,500 and 167,000. They only line up when each set comes out a few cards short, with one exception. Nocturnal comes out two over, and the section after this one gets to why:

Rounded up, those seven lines leave room for only 156,934 to 156,944 packs, and no other count from 100,000 to 260,000 fits them all. So the regular cards are figured on about 156,940 packs, or about 942,000 cards at six a pack.

At two packs a box, that's about 78,470 boxes, and the autographs say about 79,670. The gap is about 1,200 boxes, 1.5 percent. It isn't rounding: two packs for each of 79,670 boxes would be about 159,340 packs, and no SuperFractor line comes out to whole cards at that count (the base line would be 97.5). The sheet doesn't explain it. Some autographs may have gone out another way, or the regular packs may have been figured on a slightly smaller run. Both are the count Topps worked the odds on, what its note on the sheet calls the intended configuration, so read the product as about 79,000 boxes and about 1.02 million cards (about 942,000 regular cards plus about 79,670 autographs). The run that actually got packed out can differ a little.

Black Lightning and Nocturnal look swapped

Two of those seven lines don't work as printed. Nocturnal has 20 cards on Topps' checklist, and its SuperFractor line puts 22 in packs. Black Lightning has 25, and its line puts 17, eight short, when the other five lines are all three or four short.

Swap the two sets' lines and both problems go away. Black Lightning at 1:7,134 is 22 of 25 SuperFractors, the same as Hit the Lights, its 25-card twin. Nocturnal at 1:9,232 is 17 of 20, the same as Depths of Darkness, its 20-card twin. The versions with no color say the same thing:

Swapped, all three come to the same 31 copies of each card. As printed, they don't, and Nocturnal has more SuperFractors than cards. So the sheet looks to have the two sets' lines crossed, or to have worked them out on each other's card counts. That's our reading of the numbers, not something Topps has said, and a later upload of the sheet in late August is the same file. We show the odds as Topps printed them, but treat the swapped figures as the more likely ones until Topps says otherwise. The swap doesn't change the pack count, since the same two lines just change places.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

On the regular side, about 96 percent of every numbered tier down to the Red is in packs, and the SuperFractors run a little lower:

The Depths of Darkness Red is 96 of 100. The longer tiers, from the Blue to the Gold, are too short to read as closely, but they all fit the same share. This isn't whole cards skipping a tier, since 482 Reds isn't a multiple of five. Some copies of most tiers look to stay out of packs, and every SuperFractor ladder (with Black Lightning and Nocturnal swapped) is three or four cards short whatever its size.

The autographs work the opposite way. Nothing looks held back: nearly every line lands on a whole number of signers at the full print run. Here's how many signers' worth of cards each tier comes to at about 79,670 boxes:

For example, the Autographs Blue at 1:76 is about 1,050 cards, exactly seven signers' worth at /150 and 12 percent of what all 59 would make. The Purple, on each of its two lines, is 22 signers at /75, and the Gold 44 at /50. Topps' note on the sheet says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel, and on this set that looks like the rule, not the exception: all 59 reach the Rose Gold Wave /15, 18 reach the Green /99 and only seven the Blue /150. The odds can't say which ones. Rookies Autographs are the other way around, with only a few signers missing from the longer tiers. The /50 row there is the Gold Mini-Diamond; the Gold Refractor at 1:43 lands between 37 and 38 signers.

The Pitch Black Pairings fit the same way, with 13 of the 17 cards' worth at /25 and seven at /30. Like the Rookies Autographs Gold Refractor, the Ivory /50 doesn't land on a whole number, at about 1,040 cards. Topps' Jeanty is a /50, but not every Ivory signer can be.

The cards with no print run

The same counts estimate everything else: packs or boxes divided by odds, divided by the cards in the set. Regular lines use 156,940 packs and autograph lines 79,670 boxes. A few of these do carry serial numbers, but the odds can't fix one run across a whole set, so they're listed as an average:

The Autographs Refractor is the one to read with care. At 1:90 it falls about as often as the Rose Gold Wave /15, at 1:91, so it's about 890 cards in all, or about 15 per signer if all 59 have one. They may not: the Autographs tiers thin out as the runs get longer, and three signers at a /299 would be 897 cards, close to that line but not on it. Trust the total more than the average. Hit the Lights is the scarcest card we've seen with no serial number on the front, at about 31 of each, and Nocturnal matches it if those lines are swapped.

The most common autograph by far is Rookies Autographs with no color: about 660 of each rookie at the sheet's 1:3, or about 26,600 in all. If a box holds exactly one autograph and this line takes the whole extra 5 percent, that drops to about 560, or about 22,500 in all. We can't say which line the extra sits in, so it's listed as a range.

The Base set and Rookies are printed directly, three and two a pack, so they need no subtraction: 156,940 x 3 / 100 and 156,940 x 2 / 50. Each rookie is about a third more common than each veteran, about 6,300 copies against about 4,700. The 1:3, 1:6, 1:8 and 1:11 lines are short enough that the sheet's rounding can move them a lot, since a printed 1:6 can be anything from one in 5 to one in 6. The Base and Rookies Refractors above take the 96 percent share of a /299. On the odds alone they come to about 260 to 315 of each and about 285 to 315.

The rarest pulls

The longest line per box is the Pitch Black Pairings SuperFractor at 1:4,687 boxes, 17 cards, among them the Daniels and Ward above. Close behind, as printed, are the Black Lightning and Depths of Darkness SuperFractors at 1:9,232 packs, about one in 4,600 boxes each.

After those come, again as printed, the Hit the Lights and Nocturnal SuperFractors at 1:7,134 packs (about one in 3,600 boxes), the Rookies Design Variation SuperFractor at 1:5,813 packs (about one in 2,900 boxes), the Ivory Autographs SuperFractor at 1:2,344 boxes and the Super Futures SuperFractor at 1:2,097 boxes.

Counting every SuperFractor line together, the odds put 436 in packs and boxes: all 188 autographs and 248 of the 270 regular cards. That's one about every 181 boxes. A base SuperFractor alone is about one in 818 boxes, a Rookies SuperFractor one in 1,670 and a Rookies Autographs SuperFractor one in 1,992.

What to watch

The things we're watching: the first Black Lightning and Nocturnal SuperFractors, and whether a corrected sheet swaps those lines; serial numbers on the Base and Rookies Refractors, to confirm the /299; which veterans turn up in the Autographs Blue, Green and Purple; the serials on Ivory Autographs Refractors beyond Jeanty's /50; which Pitch Black Pairings have a /25; and whatever explains the gap of about 1,200 boxes between the packs and the autographs. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2025 Topps Chrome Black Football release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

---

This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: July 2026