2025 MLB Draft: Top Prospect Preview
If you collect prospects, the 2025 MLB draft is the first event that brings 2025 Bowman Draft into focus. Just two weeks away, we've starting digging deep on some players to get ready.
We've gone so far as to do an early Hobby Ceiling and Risk on the top names in mock drafts plus a few mini-sleepers that you may not be watching yet.
It's also worth flagging some interesting stats on prep vs. college bats and how much draft pedigree can indicate future success.
- College hitters reach MLB ~55 % of the time vs. ~33 % for prep bats in the first three rounds.
- First-rounders with $4 M+ bonuses have a 71 % debut rate and far out-WAR later rounds.
- Pitchers still break hearts: only 47 % of first-round HS arms make it, and they lose the most WAR to injury.
- Early “helium” flags (Draft Combine EV, Cape Cod success) are modest but real predictors of faster AA arrivals.
The Five Everyone Will Be Talking About
| Rank | Player | Pipeline Rank | School / Level | Toolsy Pitch | Hobby Ceiling* | Risk* | Why You’ll Want His 1st Bowman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethan Holliday (SS/3B) | 1 | Stillwater HS (OK) | Lefty swing, .600+ AVG, Jackson’s kid brother | S | High | Name recognition plus gaudy stat line; expect similar Holliday hype at launch and the likely face of the 2025 Draft product. |
| 2 | Kade Anderson (LHP) | 2 | LSU | CWS MOP, 94-97 mph fastball, paired with a nasty changeup | B+ (pitcher cap) | High | Rare pitcher collectors might rip first; think Paul Skenes-lite pricing day one. |
| 3 | Eli Willits (SS) | 5 | Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK) | Youngest top-10 prospect; 60 hit / 60 run blend | A | High | Jackson Chourio–style upside if the power ticks; high floor for a prep. One of our early favorites but tempering expectations because the hype will be high. |
| 4 | Wehiwa Aloy (SS) | 17 | Arkansas | Golden Spikes winner, .350/.434/.673 with 21 HR | A | Moderate | SEC stage + Hawaiian flair; could be a Gunnar Henderson–type chase if the pop holds. |
| 5 | JoJo Parker (SS) | 9 | Purvis HS (MS) | Sweet LH barrel, 20-25 HR projection, strong zone control | B+ | High | Termarr Johnson vibe but taller; price jump if he sticks at short. |
Quick Hobby Takeaways
- Shortstops rule — Surely all these elite shortshops won't make it right? And always interesting to see the ones that shift to other positions.
- One ace worth the tax — Anderson is capped at B+ in our model, but CWS heroics make him the rare pitcher who won’t crater your ROI.
- Risk skews high — College star Aloy grades Moderate, but every other headliner is still a high-variance dice roll. There's a reason we like Aloy in this early list.
Three More Bats To Watch
| Player | Pipeline Rank | Snapshot | Ceiling | Risk | Collecting Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Carlson (SS) | 7 | 70-grade glove, rising juice from Corona HS hotbed | B | High | Defense-first SS, base autos will be slow burners. |
| Ike Irish (OF/C) | 11 | .430 SEC wOBA pre-injury; dual-pos flexibility | B+ | Moderate | Dalton Rushing comp; collectors love the “catcher bat” narrative. |
| Jace LaViolette (OF) | 20 | 68 college HRs; 70 raw power with swing-and-miss | A- | Moderate | James Wood-style lottery ticket — monster upside if K-rate drops. |
Bowman ETA & Release Radar
- Prep signees (Holliday, Willits, Parker, Carlson) should debut in 2025 Bowman Draft this December.
- College juniors (Anderson, Aloy, Irish, LaViolette) sometimes sneak into Draft but could be held back for 2026 Bowman.
- Our chase order today: Holliday → Willits → Aloy → Anderson → Parker → Carlson/Irish → LaViolette. Expect plenty of reshuffling once Cape League and Draft Combine data drops.
How to Play It
- Color > base on anyone below Holliday — variance is high; scarcity remains your friend.
- Watch signing-bonus news in July; seven-figure prep deals signal teams will push them fast (and so will prices).
- Flip window: Prep bats often pop during spring-training hype as they start Pro ball (March ’26); college bats can spike "early", before the product is out at the AFL or first AA call-up. Holliday will be hyped either way, but for college bats you can sometimes wait for a post-release preseason lull.
- Hobby Ceiling & Risk: These values are likely to change. More data, injuries, landing spot and more are all taken into account when we run the models.
Final Word
The 2025 draft is a bat collector’s playground headlined by Holliday, and a Hawaiian slugger fresh off the Golden Spikes podium. Keep an eye here for more prospect previews with a hobby spin after the draft and as we get closer to 2025 Bowman Draft. We'll cover them all!