2025-26 Topps Motif Basketball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2025-26 Topps Motif Basketball released August 20. Topps posted the checklist and the odds sheet back on May 19, three months ahead. The sheet runs 128 lines in two columns, Hobby and First Day Issue (FDI), with no print runs and no note on whether the odds are per pack or per box. The 100 base Platinums, at 1:157 in both columns, put the whole run at about 15,700 packs, and the autograph Platinums, which turn up 1.5 times as often in FDI, split that, more loosely, into about 14,850 hobby packs and 850 FDI packs. From there the sheet checks the print runs in our data, turns up the tiers that don't hold, and gives a count for every card with no print run.

The box

Topps' product page gives no price, pack count or box configuration, and the odds sheet doesn't say whether its odds are per pack or per box. This piece calls the sheet's unit a pack, and everything below is per pack.

The sheet does show about what a pack holds. Read as printed, the hobby column adds up to about 7.7 cards a pack: about 1.8 base cards or base parallels, about 3.6 autographs, about 1.2 rookie relic autographs and about 1.1 relics. That's about 4.8 signed cards a pack. Short lines like 1:2 and 1:4 carry the most rounding, so the true total could be anywhere from about 7.1 to 8.5 cards. If a box is a single pack, every pack figure below is also a box figure.

The FDI column matches hobby on 54 of the 128 lines: the base set and all its color parallels, almost all of the relics, and the base versions and Ultramarine Blues of most autograph sets. On 72 lines, mostly the rookie relic autographs and the top colors of the autograph sets, the FDI odds are about two thirds of the hobby odds (the Motif Rookie Relic Autographs run 1:8 in hobby and 1:5 in FDI), so an FDI pack is about 1.5 times as likely to hold those cards. The Printing Plates run 1:40 in hobby and 1:38 in FDI. And one line is FDI only: a First Day Issue version of the Motif Rookie Relic Autographs, which the sheet prints as just "1", read here as one in every FDI pack. Read as printed, an FDI pack holds about 8.7 cards plus that First Day Issue autograph, about 6.8 signed cards in all.

Here's about how often each set turns up in a hobby pack, counting every version on the sheet:

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 786 cards across 23 sets: the 100-card base set, 15 autograph sets, four autograph relic sets and three relic sets. Counting each dual and triple as one card, 588 are signed, by 216 different players. Topps tags 50 rookies, and 45 of them sign. Ace Bailey turns up in 12 of the 23 sets and signs 10 cards, the most of anyone. Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Kon Knueppel and nine other rookies sign nine each.

The base set runs from Anthony Edwards at #1 to Stephon Castle at #100, with Victor Wembanyama at #98. Topps tags none of the 100 as rookies. This year's rookie class is all in the hits.

The autographs:

• Splatter Signatures, 36 cards: five rookies (Bailey, Flagg, Harper, Egor Dëmin and Knueppel), current stars like LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokić, and retired greats from Larry Bird and Magic Johnson to Shaquille O'Neal and Dirk Nowitzki.
• Statistical Showpiece Signatures, 30 cards, each built on a stat line, from Bird, Johnson and Hakeem Olajuwon to Wembanyama and Zaccharie Risacher.
• Apprentice Numerical Autographs, 30 rookies.
• The themed sets: Aquarelle Autographs and Deco-Rated Autographs (49 cards each, 20 of them rookies), Abstract Ink Signatures and Spray Paint Signatures (40 each, 10 rookies), Acrylic Drip Autographs (39, 15 rookies), Pick and Pop Art Signatures and Charcoal Signatures (30 each, 10 rookies) and Still Life Signatures (20, half of them rookies).
• Canvas Champions Autographs, 25 champions, from Bird, Johnson, Olajuwon and O'Neal to James, Curry, Kevin Durant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
• Legends of the Court Signatures, 45 cards, from Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and Nowitzki to Tyrese Maxey and Zach Edey.
• Legends of the Court Dual Signatures, 17 pairs, among them Flagg and Nowitzki, Curry and Steve Nash, Wembanyama and Castle, and Iverson and Maxey, and Legends of the Court Triple Signatures, eight trios, among them O'Neal, Tracy McGrady and Paolo Banchero; Nash, Iverson and John Stockton; and Manu Ginobili, David Robinson and Tony Parker.

The autograph relics are Motif Rookie Relic Autographs, Motif Rookie Dual Relic Autographs and Motif Rookie Triple Relic Autographs (the same 30 rookies in each) and Motif Rookie Quad Relic Autographs, 10 rookies: Bailey, Cedric Coward, Flagg, Collin Murray-Boyles, Harper, Derik Queen, Dëmin, Knueppel, Khaman Maluach and Noa Essengue. Topps' product page also promises the first 1/1 NBA Logoman autograph cards for this year's rookie class.

The relics are Motif Rookie Relics and Motif Rookie Dual Relics (39 rookies each, including five who don't sign anywhere in the product: VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson III, Jeremiah Fears, Carter Bryant and Hugo González) and Legends of the Court Relics, 20 current players from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jalen Brunson to Wembanyama.

The base ladder

Odds per pack. Topps prints no runs on the sheet, so the runs below are the ones in our data:

Every tier is spread over the same 100 cards, so if the runs are right, each tier's run times its odds should come out about the same. The Pyrrol Scarlet is 5 times 32, or 160. The Winsor Green is 160, the Majesty Purple 165, the Pastel Pink 158 and the Platinum 157. Two tiers sit well above that, the Ultramarine Blue at 195 and the Quin Gold at 196, and the Cadmium Orange, at 175, is a little high, though 1:7 is loose enough to cover most of that. A higher figure means fewer cards in packs than the run would make, and all three are covered below.

The autograph ladders

Hobby odds per pack. "Base" is the version with no color, and the runs are the ones in our data:

Three sets have a single line: Splatter Signatures at 1:17 (1:11 in FDI), Apprentice Numerical Autographs at 1:25 and Statistical Showpiece Signatures at 1:53.

In FDI, every Winsor Green, Pyrrol Scarlet and Platinum line in the table runs about two thirds of its hobby figure (the Still Life Platinum is 1:633), and so does every Cadmium Orange except Aquarelle, Canvas Champions and Legends of the Court Signatures, which match hobby. The base versions and the Ultramarine Blues match hobby.

Canvas Champions is the one set where our data has the Blue and Orange the other way round: Cadmium Orange at /39 and Ultramarine Blue at /25. On the sheet its Blue (1:29) is a hair rarer than its Orange (1:28). More on that below.

The rookie relic autographs and relics

Hobby odds per pack:

Every rookie relic autograph line runs about two thirds of its hobby figure in FDI (1:5 on the base versions, 1:1,536 on the Quad Platinum), plus the FDI-only First Day Issue line. The relics match hobby in FDI, except the Legends of the Court Relics Pyrrol Scarlet (1:111) and Platinum (1:623).

The rookie relic autograph runs in our data fit the preview cards we've seen: a Cooper Flagg Triple Relic Autograph in red numbered 1/5, below, and an Ace Bailey Quad Relic Autograph in green numbered 06/10.

How many packs the sheet covers

Two figures settle it. On the 54 lines where the two columns match, a hobby pack and an FDI pack are alike, so each line's count is all the packs, hobby plus FDI, divided by its odds. On the 72 lines where FDI runs about 1.5 times better, each FDI pack counts one and a half times, so the count is hobby packs plus 1.5 times the FDI packs, divided by the hobby odds.

The base Platinum gives the first figure. There are 100 base cards, the Platinum is 1:157 in both columns, and 100 times 157 is 15,700. Allowing for rounding that's 15,650 to 15,750 packs, and no more than 15,750 without more Platinums in packs than there are cards. Other lines with the same odds in both columns agree to within about 2 percent, a little high, the way a tier reads when a few copies stay out of packs:

So hobby and FDI together come to about 15,700 packs.

The autograph Platinums give the second. Every one of them, multiplied by a whole number of cards, lands on about 16,125 in the hobby column and about 10,750 in the FDI column:

The 16,125 is hobby packs plus 1.5 times the FDI packs. Take away the 15,700 and what's left, about 425, is half the FDI packs. The FDI column's 10,750 is two thirds of 16,125, so it backs up the 16,125, but it says the same thing in different units and can't check the split on its own.

So the sheet covers about 15,700 packs: about 14,850 hobby and 850 FDI. The total is the firmer figure: it can't top about 15,750, and it assumes all 100 base Platinums are in packs, which the base Greens and Scarlets back up (at 15,700 they land at the same 98 percent of their runs as the autograph Greens and Scarlets). The split is softer. The base Platinum's rounding alone puts FDI anywhere from about 750 to 950 packs, with hobby from about 15,000 down to 14,700, and FDI at about 5 percent of the run; every count below moves by about 1 percent or less across that range. If Topps held back a few base Platinums, the way the autograph Platinums below come up three short, the total would be smaller and the FDI share bigger: with 97 base Platinums in packs it would be about 15,230 packs, about 1,800 of them FDI. At the sheet's 7.7 cards a pack, hobby packs hold about 115,000 cards (about 106,000 to 126,000 allowing for rounding), about 71,500 of them signed. FDI packs add about 7,400 more plus the 850 First Day Issue autographs.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

With the pack count set, every line gives a count. Divided by the cards in the set, that's the copies of each card in packs, both formats together, which should land on the run if every player has every color:

The base set's Majesty Purple /15 comes to 14.3 copies of each card.

The Greens and Scarlets hold. Across every set but the base, the odds put about 98 percent of the Winsor Green /10s and Pyrrol Scarlet /5s in packs (leaving out the Legends of the Court Dual and Triple Scarlets, which come out over a /5, below), and about 96 percent of the Cadmium Orange /25s (leaving out Canvas Champions). The lowest Orange is the base set's, at about 90 percent.

Some Blues and Quin Golds come up short. Outside the base set the Ultramarine Blue /39s average about 92 percent, but three run about a fifth short: Charcoal Signatures at about 31 copies of each card, Legends of the Court Signatures at about 32 and the base set at about 31. Even with the sheet's rounding, the base Blue can't top about 35 copies of each card. The base Quin Gold /49 is about as far off, at about 39 copies of each card, 80 percent of the run, and no more than about 45 allowing for rounding. On the rookie relic autographs and relics the Quin Gold runs about 91 percent (97 on the Quad). Either some cards skip those colors, or the base Blue and Quin Gold are numbered lower than our data says, about /31 and /39 if every card has one.

Canvas Champions doesn't fit /39. Its Blue works out to about 21.7 copies of each card and its Orange to about 22.4, about 87 and 90 percent of a /25. A /39 on either one would put only about 56 to 58 percent in packs. Our data lists the Orange at /39, the reverse of every other set, and the odds don't support it. Until a serial number turns up, treat both as roughly /25.

The Platinums run three short. In ten sets, the Platinum line works out to three fewer one-of-ones than the set has cards: 37 of 40 Abstract Ink and Spray Paint, 42 of 45 Legends of the Court Signatures, 27 of 30 on Pick and Pop, Charcoal and the Rookie Dual and Triple Relic Autographs, 22 of 25 Canvas Champions, 17 of 20 Still Life and 7 of 10 Quad Relic Autographs. Acrylic Drip (37 of 39) shares Abstract Ink's odds on every line from Blue up, and Aquarelle and Deco-Rated (47 of 49) read like 50-card sets. Across the 15 signed sets with a Platinum line other than the Rookie Relic Autographs, the odds put 425 of 462 Platinums in packs, about 92 percent. The sheet doesn't say where the rest go. Topps' note at the top says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel.

The Rookie Relic Autographs Platinum line counts 57 one-of-ones for 30 rookies. At 1:283 in hobby and 1:189 in FDI, it falls about twice as often as the Dual and Triple Platinums (1:597), and even with every pack counted as hobby it would come to about 55. The sheet has no line for the Logoman autographs Topps' product page promises for this rookie class. If they're counted here, 27 Platinums plus 30 Logomans makes the 57.

The Dual and Triple Legends of the Court lines read like bigger sets. Their Pyrrol Scarlet lines come to about 5.7 and 5.9 copies of each card, more than a /5 allows: about 97 Scarlets for 17 dual cards (85 at /5) and 47 for eight triples (40). Their Scarlet and Platinum odds are the same as Still Life's (20 cards) and the Quad Relic Autographs' (10 cards), and read that way they come to 4.8 and 4.7 copies of each card, with 17 of 20 and 7 of 10 Platinums. Topps' checklist lists 17 duals and eight triples. Either the odds were set for 20 and 10 cards, or the checklist is missing some.

The cards with no print run

Topps gives no run for the base version of any set. At 14,850 hobby and 850 FDI packs, here's about how many of each card are in packs. A range in parentheses is how far the sheet's rounding could move the figure:

The base set has its own line on the sheet, 1:2 in both columns, the same as the Pastel Pink /79: about 7,850 base cards in packs, about 79 of each card. Topps' product page and odds sheet don't give the cards in a pack, so this count comes from the Base line itself, not from the slots left over in a pack. 1:2 is the loosest line on the sheet and could mean anywhere from about 63 to 105 copies of each card. The Wembanyama base card above carries no serial number. The Printing Plates come to about 394 in packs, close to four for each base card.

The cards we've seen from all three single-line sets are numbered. The LeBron James Splatter Signatures above is numbered 23/25, and the odds put about 26 copies of each card in packs, about 950 in all against the 900 a /25 on 36 cards would make. Allowing for rounding that's still about 37 to 39 cards' worth, so either Topps' checklist is a card or two short or not every Splatter card is a /25. Wembanyama's Statistical Showpiece card at the top, built on the 10 blocks in a single game the card dates to December 21, 2023, is numbered 01/10, and the odds put about 9.9 copies of each card in packs, about what a /10 on all 30 would make. His stat is also 10, though, so one card can't tell a /10 set from one numbered to each card's stat; the odds fit a /10 on all 30. Knueppel's Apprentice Numerical card is numbered 7/7, his jersey number. If every card in that set is numbered to the rookie's jersey number, the 30 numbers should add up to about 628.

Leaving out the three single-line sets, whose cards we've seen are numbered, the base versions of the two Legends of the Court multi-signed sets are the scarcest cards with no stated run, about 13 copies of each dual and 15.5 of each triple, or about 11 and 12 if the odds were set for 20 and 10 cards. Canvas Champions, at about 28.5, and the First Day Issue Rookie Relic Autographs, at about 28, are next. Most base versions are far more common than their own Blue /39: the Abstract Ink and Acrylic Drip base versions come to about 100 copies of each card.

The rarest pulls

The toughest lines in a hobby pack are the Motif Rookie Quad Relic Autographs Platinum and the Legends of the Court Triple Signatures Platinum, each 1:2,303 in hobby and 1:1,536 in FDI. Each comes to about seven one-of-ones in packs, about 6.5 of them in hobby. The Quad set's 10 rookies run from Bailey, Flagg, Harper and Knueppel to Maluach and Essengue.

Next come the Still Life and Legends of the Court Dual Platinums at 1:949, the Legends of the Court Relics Platinum at 1:934 and the Canvas Champions Platinum at 1:733. The Dual Signatures Platinum is one of the few lines on the sheet where every card looks to be in packs, 17 of 17.

Across the product, the 20 Platinum lines put about 676 one-of-ones in packs: 100 on the base set, about 94 on the relics and about 482 on the signed sets, counting the 57 on the Rookie Relic Autographs line. About 627 of them are in hobby packs, about one every 24 hobby packs. The Printing Plates add about 394 more, about 371 of them in hobby. An FDI pack is about 1.5 times as likely as a hobby pack to hold an autograph Platinum. The preview one-of-ones we've seen include Kevin Durant on Charcoal Signatures, Stephen Curry on Pick and Pop and the Banchero and McGrady dual above.

What to watch

The things we're watching: the first serial numbers on the base Quin Gold and Ultramarine Blue and on the Charcoal and Legends of the Court Blues; serial numbers on the Canvas Champions Blue and Orange; whether every Splatter card is a /25 and every Statistical Showpiece a /10 or numbered to its stat, and whether the Apprentice Numerical cards are all numbered to jersey numbers; where the Logoman autographs sit on the sheet; a checklist update for the Legends of the Court Dual and Triple Signatures; and a pack and box configuration from Topps, which would also pin down the FDI split. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2025-26 Topps Motif Basketball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: August 2026