2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball released July 23, about five weeks after its First Day Issue (FDI) boxes. Topps' odds sheet runs 91 lines in two columns, Hobby and FDI, with no print runs. There's one pack in every box, so the odds are box odds, and the sheet rounds every line up to a whole box, which makes it readable to the card. It's figured on 49,584 hobby boxes and 1,616 FDI boxes: 51,200 boxes, 6,400 cases of eight, about 358,000 cards. That's the count behind the odds, not a confirmed print run, and the FDI side is still open: the FDI-only autographs point as high as 1,920 boxes. From there the sheet backs up every print run on the base ladder, puts most numbered autographs in a box, and gives a count for every card with no print run. It also turns up what doesn't fit: Franchise Fundamental Pink and Red lines that cover only 22 and 40 percent of their runs, a Horizontal Variations ladder that reads like 18 cards instead of 20, and an FDI column that adds up to more autographs than the box lists.

The box

Topps' product page lists 7 cards per pack and 1 pack per box, with one autograph or autograph relic per box. The box is marked hobby only and notes that it may hold redemption cards. Cases hold 8 boxes. FDI boxes have the same one pack of 7 cards, with one FDI-exclusive autograph and one more autograph. With one pack to a box, a line on the sheet reads the same per pack or per box, and every figure here is per box.

Add up the sheet's lines, allowing for the rounding, and here's what an average box holds:

The hobby lines come to about 1.03 to 1.08 hits a box, in line with the one Topps lists. By set, a Rookie Jumbo Relic Autograph turns up about once every 3 hobby boxes, a Rookie Autograph every 4.4, a Horizontal Variation every 9.1, a Franchise Fundamental every 11.2, a Rise to Fame every 13.5, a Fountain of Youth every 17.3, a Persistent Marks every 23, a Dawn of Greatness every 29 and an Inception Silver Signing every 31.

The short sets run longer: a Rookie Relic Booklet Autograph is about one in 66 boxes (one in 8 cases), an NBA First Milestone Autograph Relic one in 99 (one in 12 cases) and a Dual Rookie Relic Autograph one in 128 (one in 16 cases).

The FDI column doesn't tie out as neatly. Its Red and Green Electricity lines add up to 1.00 a box as printed, the one exclusive. Everything else adds up to about 1.6 to 1.7, not one, so the odds put about 2.6 to 2.7 autographs in the average FDI box against the two listed. Most autograph lines are about 1.6 times as likely in an FDI box as in a hobby box. The sheet doesn't explain the extra.

The checklist

Topps' checklist runs 458 cards in 17 sections. It lists 488 names, since the Dual Rookie Relic Autographs and Rookie Relic Booklet Autographs carry two signers each.

The base set is 100 cards: three from each of the 30 teams (#1 to #90), then ten more rookies (#91 to #100). It runs from Zaccharie Risacher (#1) to Liam McNeeley (#100). Topps tags 24 as rookies, among them Cooper Flagg (#22), Dylan Harper (#35), VJ Edgecombe (#50), Kon Knueppel (#57) and Ace Bailey (#72).

The inserts:

• Launch, 20 cards, from Anthony Edwards to Carter Bryant, with Dwyane Wade, Vince Carter and Shaquille O'Neal.
• Splashdown, 20, from Luka Dončić to Tre Johnson III.
• Endgame, 10: Dončić, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama and Jayson Tatum, then Flagg, Edgecombe, Knueppel, Harper and Bailey.

There are 303 signed cards from 127 signers:

• Rookie Autographs, 40 rookies, and Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs, 39.
• NBA First Milestone Autograph Relics, 33 rookies. The sheet lists them as redemptions, and Topps says they hold memorabilia from each rookie's first NBA game. Its image of Knueppel's shows a piece of net, dated 10/22/2025, first points scored.
• Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs, 32 players, with Wembanyama, James Harden, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero.
• Fountain of Youth Signatures, 27, with Wembanyama, Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton.
• Rise to Fame Signatures, 24, with Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Maxey.
• Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations and Dawn of Greatness Autographs, 20 rookies each.
• Inception Silver Signings, 20: ten rookies, plus James, Curry, Wembanyama, Tatum, Banchero, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Magic Johnson and O'Neal.
• Rookie Relic Booklet Autographs, 20 cards of two rookies each.
• Persistent Marks, 18 legends, among them Iverson, Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon and John Stockton. Topps' checklist and sheet spell it Persistant. The card reads Persistent.
• Dual Rookie Relic Autographs, 10 cards of two rookies each.

The one relic set with no signature is NBA First Milestone Relics, five rookies, also redemptions: Bryant, Hugo González, Jeremiah Fears, Johnson and Edgecombe.

Flagg and Bailey are each in 12 of the 17 sections. Harper and Knueppel are in 11.

The base ladder

Odds per box. Topps' sheet prints no serial numbers, so the print runs below are the ones in our data, and the odds check them.

Counting every color, there are 390 numbered copies of each base card, from the Purple /125 down to the Inception 1/1.

The last two columns are the check. The Inception lines come to 96 of the 100 one-of-ones. Take 96 percent of every other run, divide 51,200 boxes by it, round up, and you get the sheet: all eight lines land on their printed odds. A wrong run would stick out: a /15 Camo would read 1:36, and a /80 Red would read 1:7. So the runs in our data hold, and Topps' product page also shows a Cooper Flagg Gold Electricity numbered 32/50. The columns split only at Sky Blue and Inception because the FDI count is small: 15 Sky Blues in 1,616 boxes is one every 107.7, printed 1:108.

About four percent of each tier isn't in the odds, as far as the sheet can show. The Camo, Sky Blue and Inception lines pin that share, and the longer lines are too short to read that closely but fit it too. Base parallels fall at the same rate in both columns, so FDI boxes get about 3 percent of them, their share of the boxes. A numbered base card turns up about once every 1.4 boxes.

The inserts

There are three inserts, with no parallels on the sheet:

All three are seeded alike, about 130 of each card, and one of the three turns up about every 8 hobby boxes.

The autographs

Odds per box, hobby first, then FDI. The runs are the ones in our data, and the version with no color has no print run unless noted.

The three big rookie sets:

Rookie Autographs and Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs run nearly line for line until you reach the version with no color. There the Jumbo, at 1:7, is the most common hit in a hobby box. The plain Rookie Autograph, at 1:35, is rarer than its own Pink /99, Red /75 and Gold Electricity /50. The Kon Knueppel at the top of this piece is a Blue numbered 01/25, which fits the Blue in our data.

The veteran sets:

The Allen Iverson below is a Persistent Marks Camo numbered 03/10, which fits the /10. Franchise Fundamental's Pink, Red and Gold Electricity run backward, with the higher print runs falling less often. That's how the sheet prints them. More on that below.

The short ladders:

The one-of-one on Silver Signings is the Gold Ink Inscription. The Booklets and Duals have no version with no color on the sheet, so those ladders start at the Blue /25. The Harper and Bailey Dual near the top of this piece is numbered 01/10, which fits the Camo, and Topps' product page shows a Cedric Coward Dawn of Greatness numbered 01/25, which fits the Blue.

The First Milestone lines hold a surprise. The sheet prints no run for the version with no color, but its odds come to almost exactly 10 of each card (328 or 329 in the odds, of 330), and Topps' image of the Knueppel is numbered 07/10. So the plain First Milestone Autograph Relic is a /10. The relic version comes to 49 of 50, which points to /10 as well.

Across these ladders the FDI share is steady: about 5 percent of nearly every numbered line, against about 3 percent of the boxes. On Dawn of Greatness that's 10 of the 200 Camos, 5 of the 100 Sky Blues and one of the 20 one-of-ones. The exceptions are at the very top, where the Dual and First Milestone Relics Inceptions have no FDI line at all.

The FDI exclusives

Red Electricity and Green Electricity are FDI only, on three sets. The sheet gives them no print run, but Topps' product page shows two of them: a Kon Knueppel Inception Silver Signings on red numbered 07/16, and a Cooper Flagg on green numbered 8/8. So at least on Silver Signings, the Red is a /16 and the Green a /8. On the other two sets it's still only inferred.

Per card, all three sets print the same rate, with the Red twice as common as the Green, which fits /16 and /8. Lines this short can't prove it, though: the Rookie Autographs Red allows anything from about 13 to 20 of each card. The six lines add up to 1.00 a box as printed.

At /16 and /8 on all 80 cards that's 1,920 cards, and that's where it stops tying out. One a box would take 1,920 boxes, and there 640 Rookie Autographs Reds is exactly 1:3, 320 cards is exactly 1:6 and 160 is exactly 1:12. That tidiness doesn't prove 1,920, because a one-a-box split at that 2-to-1 ratio works out to 1:3, 1:6 and 1:12 at any box count. All six lines also fit 1,616 boxes, the count every other FDI line gives, but not with every card at full run: in 1,616 boxes a 1:12 line can't hold more than 146 of its 160 Greens. So if 1,616 is the real run, about 300 of those 1,920 exclusives stay out of boxes, or about 13 of the 80 cards don't have them, or the /16 and /8 don't carry across all three sets. If the /16 and /8 do carry across and every copy is in a box, the FDI run is bigger than the rest of its column says. The sheet can't settle it. We use 1,616 below because the whole column is worked out on it, but treat the FDI count as open, as high as 1,920. If 1,616 is right and the shortfall is spread evenly, it's about 13 or 14 of each Red and about 7 of each Green.

How many boxes the sheet covers

The one-of-one lines are the key. Each counts cards directly, so each has to come out to a whole number of them:

The FDI column gives itself away. Nine lines print 1:1,616, and the rest step down from there: 1:808 is two cards, 1:404 four, 1:202 eight and 1:101 sixteen. That's one card in 1,616 boxes.

This sheet rounds up, not to the nearest box. Five cards in 1,616 boxes is one every 323.2, printed 1:324, and six is one every 269.3, printed 1:270. Rounded to the nearest box those would read 1:323 and 1:269. Rounded up, every FDI line from 1:3 on comes out to a whole number of cards at 1,616 boxes, and no other count near it does.

The Hobby column works the same way. Four cards at 1:12,396 allow at most 49,584 boxes, nine cards at 1:5,510 need at least 49,582, and every other line fits inside that. Only 49,584 makes whole cases. So the sheet is figured on 49,584 hobby boxes, 6,198 cases of 8, and 1,616 FDI boxes, 202 cases. Together that's 51,200 boxes, a round 6,400 cases, about 358,400 cards at 7 a box. That's the count Topps worked the odds out on, what its note on the sheet calls the intended configuration, so read it as about 50,000 hobby boxes. It isn't a confirmed print run, and the FDI side stays open: 1,920 FDI boxes would make 51,504 boxes and 6,438 cases, though no regular line on the sheet fits that count.

Not every numbered card is in a box

The odds put about 96 percent of the base ladder in boxes. The autographs mostly do better. Here's the share of each numbered tier, hobby and FDI together. Where a line is too short to pin down, the range is what the rounding allows:

Most of those are whole-card fits: 180 of 180 Persistent Marks Camos, 240 of 240 Rise to Fame Camos, 120 of 120 Rise to Fame Sky Blues, 100 of 100 Dual Camos. The Rookie Autographs Sky Blue, at 194 of 200, is one to note: its line is identical in both columns to the Rookie Jumbo Sky Blue, which comes to 194 of 195. Three sets don't fit.

Horizontal Variations reads like 18 cards, not 20. Every tier sits near 89 percent of a 20-card run, the uniform shortfall a wrong card count leaves. On 18 cards they fill: 180 of 180 Camos, 89 of 90 Sky Blues, 446 or more of 450 Blues. The Blue, Camo, Sky Blue and Inception lines are also identical, in both columns, to Persistent Marks, an 18-card set, down to the 1:2,917 Inception with no FDI line. Either two of the 20 signers sit out the ladder, or those lines were carried over. Topps' note on the sheet says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel.

Franchise Fundamental doesn't fill its middle. At /99 on 32 signers there would be 3,168 Pinks, and the odds put 687 to 695 in boxes. At /75 there would be 2,400 Reds, and the odds put 967 to 983. The Gold Electricity comes to 1,412 to 1,450 of 1,600 and the Blue to 669 to 676 of 800. The rare end is fine: 160 of 160 Sky Blues. Those counts happen to fit partial ladders: seven signers at /99, 13 at /75, 27 at /25. So either only some signers have those colors, or the runs in our data are wrong for this set. Until serial numbers turn up, treat the Pink and Red as unsettled.

Fountain of Youth Gold Electricity reads like 19 of 27 signers. The line comes to 949 to 965 cards against 1,350 at /50, while the Blue through the Sky Blue fill at 96 to 100 percent. Nineteen signers at /50 would be 950.

The one-of-ones come up short too. The 14 lines put 393 cards in boxes, 15 fewer than the 408 cards they cover. Four of those are Base Inceptions. Three are Horizontal Variations, or one if that ladder is really 18 cards. The other eight are one each, on eight different sets, and the four sets with an exact count (Rookie Autographs, Dawn of Greatness, Silver Signings and the Booklets) show the odds can fill a line. Either a signer in each of those sets has no one-of-one, or one stays out of boxes.

The cards with no print run

The same box counts estimate the cards with no print run: boxes divided by odds, divided by the cards in the set, in each column.

In several of these sets the version with no color is not the common one. Franchise Fundamental's is about as scarce as a Camo /10, and Persistent Marks, Silver Signings, Fountain of Youth and Rookie Autographs all sit between a /25 and a /50. The big exception is the Rookie Jumbo Relic Autograph, about 7,400 to 8,700 in all, more than the next four versions with no color combined. Dawn of Greatness comes to almost exactly 50 of each card, so it may be numbered, though we haven't seen a serial on one.

The base count is the roughest. Base and Green both print 1:1, which only says at least one a box, so their count is what's left of each 7-card box after every other line: about 1.9 cards in a hobby box and about 3.6 in an FDI box. That leaves about 5.1 and 3.4 cards, about 258,000 in all, or about 2,600 copies of each of the 100 cards between Base and Green. The sheet can't split them. If the Green is exactly one a box, that's 512 of each Green and about 2,100 of each plain Base.

The rarest pulls

The longest line on the sheet is the NBA First Milestone Relics Inception at 1:12,396 hobby boxes, about one in 1,550 cases, with four of the five cards in the odds and no FDI line. Next is the Dual Rookie Relic Autographs Inception at 1:5,510 (nine cards, about one in 690 cases, no FDI line). Then come the Horizontal Variations and Persistent Marks Inceptions at 1:2,917 (17 each), and three lines at 1:2,610, the Dawn of Greatness Inception, the Silver Signings Gold Ink Inscription and the Booklet Inception, with 19 cards each in hobby.

In FDI boxes the longest odds are 1:1,616, on nine lines, each with one card in the run.

Counting every line, the odds put 393 one-of-ones in boxes, 380 in hobby and 13 in FDI, about one every 130 hobby boxes and one every 124 FDI boxes. A Base Inception alone is about one in 533 boxes, or one in 67 cases.

What to watch

The things we're watching: the first Franchise Fundamental Pink and Red serials, and how many signers have them; which Fountain of Youth signers have a Gold Electricity; whether the Horizontal Variations ladder covers all 20 signers; a Red or Green Electricity serial on a Rookie Autograph or Horizontal Variation, to confirm the /16 and /8 beyond Silver Signings; whether the FDI run is closer to 1,616 boxes or 1,920; why the FDI column adds up to more than 2.6 autographs; and which one-of-ones never surface. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: July 2026