2025-26 Topps Definitive Basketball: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2025-26 Topps Definitive Basketball released September 17, and Topps posted the odds sheet the same day. The checklist has been up since August 12. The sheet runs 141 lines in two columns, Hobby and First Day Issue (FDI), with no print runs and no note on whether the odds are per pack or per box. One tiny set settles the size of the run anyway: the two Rookie Defining Games Relic Autograph redemptions, Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, whose odds only work at 6,032 hobby packs and 204 FDI packs. From there the sheet checks the print runs, turns up the tiers that don't hold, and gives a count for every card that has no print run.

The box

Topps' product page gives no price, pack count or box configuration, and the odds sheet doesn't say whether its odds are per pack or per box. This piece calls the sheet's unit a pack, and everything below is per pack.

The sheet does show about how much a pack holds. Read as printed, the hobby column adds up to about 8.3 cards a pack: about 3.8 autographs, 2.4 autograph relics and 2.1 relics, so about 6.2 signed cards. About 5.3 of the 8.3 are numbered parallels, Orange through Gold. Short lines like 1:2 and 1:3 carry the most rounding, so the true figure could be anywhere from about 7.8 to 9.0 cards. The First Day Issue box pictured below reads 8 cards and says to look for six autograph cards, in line with the hobby column, so a pack here holds about what that box holds. Topps doesn't say how many packs make a box; if a box is a single pack, every pack figure below is also a box figure.

Every FDI pack holds a First Day Issue version of a Definitive Rookie Patch Autograph, at 1:1. Otherwise the FDI column mostly repeats the hobby odds, so read as printed it comes to the hobby pack plus that card: about 9.3 cards (8.4 to 11.0 allowing for rounding) and 7.2 signed. That doesn't square with the FDI box below, printed with 8 cards and six autographs. Either the First Day Issue card takes one of the eight spots or the FDI column overstates the rest of the pack, and the sheet doesn't say which. Of the 141 lines, 108 read the same in both columns. Nineteen Blue and Gold lines and the two Nameplate lines run about 1 to 3 percent longer in FDI (1:96 against 1:94 on the Authentic Relic Autographs Blue, for one). The Golds on Dual, Dual Rookie, Legendary, Triple and Triple Rookie Autographs are hobby only. And the Rookie Defining Games line runs far shorter in FDI, which is what pins down the run.

Here's about how often each set turns up in a hobby pack, counting every version on the sheet:

The checklist

There's no base set. Every card in Definitive is an autograph, a relic or both: 979 cards across 27 sets, which Topps' checklist sorts into six autograph relic sets, 16 autograph sets and five relic sets. Counting each dual and triple as one card, 601 are signed, by 133 different players. Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper sign the most, 17 cards each, and Flagg turns up in 11 of the 22 signed sets. Forty-five rookies appear somewhere on the checklist.

The autograph relics:

• Definitive Autograph Relics, 86 cards: four each of 20 current players, from Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Nikola Jokić to Victor Wembanyama and Zaccharie Risacher, plus one each of six retired players: Allen Iverson, Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Larry Bird and Shaquille O'Neal.
• Definitive Rookie Patch Autographs, 42 cards, two each of 21 rookies, among them Flagg, Harper, Ace Bailey and Knueppel.
• Authentic Relic Autographs (32 cards), Definable Relic Autographs (22) and Opening Act Rookie Relic Autographs (20 rookies).
• Rookie Defining Games Relic Autograph, two redemption cards: Flagg and Knueppel.

The autographs:

• Definitive Autographs (40), Framed Rookies Autograph Collection (40 rookies) and Noble Ink (39 cards of 37 players, three of them LeBron James).
• Six 30-card sets: Decisive Signatures, Defining Images Autographs, Definitive Rookies Autographs (all rookies), Definitive Signs, Framed Legends Autograph Collection and Definitive Moments Collection Autographs (10 of them rookies). Framed Veterans Autograph Collection has 29. Topps' product page describes the three Framed sets as on-card autographs set in gold display frames.
• Definitive Markers Autographs, 19 cards, from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson and Hakeem Olajuwon to LeBron James, Curry and Wembanyama.
• Legendary Autograph Collection, 15 retired players, from Bird and Magic Johnson to Tracy McGrady and Steve Nash.
• Dual Rookie Autographs, 15 pairs, three of them with Flagg (alongside Harper, Knueppel and Yang Hansen), and Triple Rookie Autographs, five trios, four with Flagg and four with Harper.
• Dual Autographs, 10 pairs, among them Karl Malone and John Stockton, Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson, Dennis Rodman and Steve Kerr, Nowitzki and Nash, and Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
• Triple Autographs, five trios: Nowitzki, Michael Finley and Nash; O'Neal, Olajuwon and Abdul-Jabbar; Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić; Jalen Williams, Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren; and Tyrese Haliburton, Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson.

The relics:

• Definitive Relic Collection, 100 cards, two each of 50 players.
• Definitive Patch Collection, 56 cards of 30 players: two each, except one each for Luka Dončić, James, Jokić and Curry.
• Definitive Rookie Patch Collection, 38 cards, two each of 19 rookies.
• Definitive Nameplate I and Definitive Nameplate II, single game-used jersey letters, which Topps' product page says are each numbered 1/1. Nameplate I has 100 letters from 12 players, with 17 for Gilgeous-Alexander, 13 for Antetokounmpo and 10 each for Wembanyama and Cunningham. Nameplate II has 84 from 13 players: 60 rookie letters (nine for VJ Edgecombe) plus Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Dončić and Jokić.

The parallel ladders

Topps prints no runs on the sheet. The same ladder runs through 17 sets: Orange /25, Pink /15, Black /10, Red /5, Blue /2 and Gold 1/1, and the Rookie Defining Games set has it without the Pink. Topps' product page backs the top of it, saying the Framed sets and the Rookie Patch Autographs run down to a Gold 1/1. The preview cards we've seen fit too: a Tyrese Maxey Definable Relic Autographs Black numbered 01/10, a Cunningham Authentic Relic Autographs Red at 5/5, a Knueppel Opening Act Red at 3/5, and Gold 1/1s of Cedric Coward (Opening Act) and Harper (Framed Rookies).

Hobby odds per pack. "Base" is the version with no color, with each tier's print run:

Six more sets come with only a base version and a Gold:

And three have a single line: Definitive Markers Autographs at 1:317, Nameplate I at 1:62 and Nameplate II at 1:74.

How many packs the sheet covers

The two Rookie Defining Games redemptions are the key. With only two cards, each line counts copies directly, and the two columns split them between hobby and FDI:

The Gold settles it. There are two, one in each format. One Gold in hobby packs at 1:6,032 means 6,032 hobby packs, and one in FDI at 1:204 means 204 FDI packs. Every other tier then works out to whole cards and fills its run exactly: 48 of the 50 Oranges in hobby (6,032 divided by 48 is 125.7, printed 1:126) and two in FDI, and so on down the ladder. The base version lands on 70 cards, 35 of each player. Topps' product page says the Definitive Rookie Patch Autographs are numbered from 35 down to a Gold 1/1, and this set looks to follow the same ladder.

This sheet rounds to the nearest whole pack, not up. 6,032 divided by 9 is 670.2, printed 1:670, and 6,032 divided by 19 is 317.5 (317.47), printed 1:317. Rounded up, they would read 1:671 and 1:318.

The other one-of-one lines agree. Each count below is 6,032 divided by the hobby odds plus 204 divided by the FDI odds:

Each lands within about half a card of its count; the furthest off is the Definitive Autograph Relics Gold, at 85.4 of 86. The hobby-only Golds also set a ceiling: with all 15 Dual Rookie Autographs Golds in hobby at 1:402, hobby can't hold more than about 6,037 packs (15 x 402.5) without the sheet putting more one-of-ones in packs than exist. The 100 Nameplate I letters cap it at about 6,047.

So the sheet covers 6,032 hobby packs and 204 FDI packs, 6,236 in all. FDI is about 3.3 percent of the run, so on every line where the two columns match, hobby holds about 97 percent of the cards. At the sheet's 8.3 cards a pack, hobby packs hold about 50,000 cards (about 47,000 to 54,000 allowing for rounding): roughly 37,000 signed cards and 13,000 relics. FDI packs add about 1,600 more at the 8 cards printed on the box, or about 1,900 at the 9.3 the FDI column adds up to, and 204 of them are First Day Issue Rookie Patch Autographs.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

With the pack count set, every line gives a count: 6,032 divided by the hobby odds, plus 204 divided by the FDI odds. Divided by the cards in the set, that's the copies of each card in packs, which should land on the run if every player has every color:

The Golds hold up on every signed set, and the Blues, Reds and Blacks mostly do, within a few percent of 2, 5 and 10 copies of each card. The lowest are the Definitive Autograph Relics (about 1.9 Blues, 4.5 Reds and 9.1 Blacks of each card) and Noble Ink (4.6 Reds and 8.9 Blacks). In all, the odds put 580 of the 582 Golds on signed cards in packs, and 997 of the 1,004 Blues. Below the Black, and on the relics, it's a different story.

Orange is short in most sets. Allowing for rounding, only the Authentic Relic Autographs, Rookie Patch Autographs, Definitive Signs and Framed Legends Orange lines, plus the Rookie Defining Games one, can hold a full /25, with Opening Act just under. The rest come up short even after rounding: Decisive Signatures works out to 18 to 20 copies of each card, Noble Ink 19 to 21, Defining Images 20 to 22, Definitive Autographs and Framed Rookies 21 to 24, Definitive Rookies Autographs 22 to 24, Definable Relic Autographs 21 to 23, the Definitive Autograph Relics 16 to 21, and Framed Veterans 13 to 14. Framed Veterans' Pink, at about 12.6, is short too. Either some players have no Orange, or the Orange in those sets isn't a /25.

The relic ladders don't fit /25, /15 and /10. On the Relic Collection and the Patch Collection, the Red, Blue and Gold lines sit close to their runs, but the Orange, Pink and Black lines come up far short. The Relic Collection's Orange works out to about 10 copies of each card, and its Pink and Black to about 7 each; they share the same odds, 1:9, which a /15 and a /10 can't both have. The Patch Collection runs about 16, 9 and 6, and the Rookie Patch Collection about 10, 4 and 4, with its Pink, Black and Red all near four copies of each card. Across the three sets, the odds put about 2,300 of the 4,850 Oranges a /25 would make in packs, about 1,380 of 2,910 Pinks and about 1,200 of 1,940 Blacks. Either those colors are numbered lower on the relics or a lot of cards skip them. Until serial numbers turn up, treat the relic runs above the Red as unconfirmed.

The Rookie Patch Collection is short at the top too. Its Red works out to about 3.9 copies of each card, and its Gold, at 1:211, to about 30 Golds against 38 cards.

Three sets run a little over. On the Authentic Relic Autographs, the Black, Red, Blue and Gold lines put 1 to 4 percent more cards in packs than 32 cards can make (about 328 Blacks against 320, 164 Reds against 160 and 66 Blues against 64), as if the set had 33 cards. The Definable Relic Autographs do the same on the Red, Blue and Gold (about 113 Reds against 110 and 46.5 Blues against 44), as if it had 23. And the Framed Veterans Red, Blue and Gold odds are the same as the 30-card sets' (1:42, 1:104 and 1:211), though Topps' checklist lists 29 cards. Either the odds count cards that aren't on Topps' checklist, or the figures were carried over from bigger sets.

Some Gold lines multiply out to about 6,330 packs. Every 30-card Gold is 1:211, the 10 Dual Autographs Golds are 1:633 and the five-card Triple Golds are 1:1,266, and each of those comes to about 6,330 packs, about 5 percent more than the hobby run. At 6,032 hobby packs, that leaves about 29.6 of each set of 30 Golds in packs, and, since they're hobby only, about 9.5 of the 10 Dual Autographs Golds and 4.8 of each five Triple Golds. 1:211 also turns up on the 29-card Framed Veterans Gold and the 38-card Rookie Patch Collection Gold.

The sheet's own note says a player on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel, which would explain most of these gaps.

The cards with no print run

Topps gives no run for the base version of any set, and the base versions are where most of the cards are. At 6,032 hobby and 204 FDI packs, here's about how many of each card are in packs. A range in parentheses is how far the sheet's rounding could move the figure:

Six sets come out at 9.8 to 9.9 copies of each card: Moments, the two Dual sets, Legendary and the two Triple sets. That fits a /10. Topps' product page says the Triple Autographs are numbered to 10, and the Harper and Bailey Dual Rookie Autograph below, a base version, is numbered 02/10; the other four aren't confirmed yet.

The Definitive Markers Autographs come out at about one of each card, 19.7 in all, so they look like one-of-ones, though neither the sheet nor Topps' product page says so. The Rookie Patch Autographs base, at 1:4, fits the /35 on Topps' product page once rounding is allowed for: 35 copies of each of 42 cards would be 1:4.2. The First Day Issue version of the same set is one in every FDI pack, 204 cards across 42, about five of each.

Several base versions are scarcer than numbered colors in their own set. The Defining Images Autographs base, at about 11.5 copies of each card, is scarcer than that set's Pink /15. The base versions of the Definitive Autograph Relics (about 12 copies), Framed Legends (about 21) and Authentic Relic Autographs (about 22) are all scarcer than their own Orange, and so is the Definable Relic Autographs base, at about 16 against its Orange's 22.

The most frequent lines on the sheet are the relic base versions, with a Relic Collection card in about every other pack and a Patch Collection card in about every third. Those two lines are also the loosest, since 1:2 covers anything from about 1:1.5 to 1:2.5.

The rarest pulls

The toughest line in a hobby pack is the Rookie Defining Games Gold at 1:6,032: one copy in all of hobby. The other one is in an FDI pack. That set's Black, Red, Blue and Gold lines are each 1:204 in FDI, one copy of each across 204 packs, so an FDI pack is about 30 times as likely as a hobby pack to hold the Gold.

Next in hobby come the Rookie Defining Games Blue at 1:2,011 (three in hobby), the Triple Autographs and Triple Rookie Autographs Golds at 1:1,266 each (hobby only), the Rookie Defining Games Red at 1:670 and the Dual Autographs Gold at 1:633.

Across the product, the lines listed as one-of-ones add up to 960 cards: 776 Golds and 184 Nameplate letters. The odds put about 949 of them in packs, 919 in hobby, which is about one every 6.6 hobby packs. A Gold alone turns up about once every 8 hobby packs, and a Nameplate letter about once every 34. Counting the Markers as one-of-ones adds 19 more.

What to watch

The things we're watching: serial numbers on the relic Orange, Pink and Black parallels and on the Oranges that come up short; whether the base versions of Moments, the Duals, the Triples and Legendary are all numbered to 10, and whether the Markers are one-of-ones; a checklist update for the Authentic Relic Autographs, Definable Relic Autographs and Framed Veterans; and a pack and box configuration from Topps, which would also settle whether the First Day Issue card is one of an FDI box's eight. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2025-26 Topps Definitive Basketball release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

---

This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: September 2026