2026 Topps MLB x KAWS: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown
2026 Topps MLB x KAWS shipped in early October. It's Topps' collaboration with the artist KAWS (Brian Donnelly), and it's a small set: 146 cards on Topps' checklist, built around 60 base cards of current stars, rookies and legends. Topps posted the checklist on July 16 and the odds sheet on July 20, the day pre-orders opened. The sheet is a single column of 22 lines with odds per pack and no print runs, and neither Topps' checklist nor its product page lists any. The one-of-one lines still pin the product at 54,000 packs, and from there we can check the runs in our data, estimate the cards that carry no number, and see how much of each ladder made it into packs.
The box
Topps sold MLB x KAWS as a hobby box at $124.99: three packs a box, four cards a pack, with one parallel, KAWS Creation insert, short print or autograph in every pack, according to Topps' pre-order announcement on July 20. Topps' product page calls it a limited release for the Hobby.
The sheet's odds are per pack. Its lines add up to at least 1.08 of those cards a pack, or about 3.2 a box, so some packs carry more than one. That includes at least 1.8 numbered base parallels a box and a KAWS Creation insert about every four boxes.
The checklist
Not counting parallels, Topps' checklist runs 146 cards across six subsets.
The base set is 60 cards, from Shohei Ohtani at #1 to Clayton Kershaw at #60. Current stars like Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Paul Skenes and Juan Soto share it with legends like Ken Griffey Jr., Derek Jeter, Ichiro, Cal Ripken Jr. and Pedro Martínez. Topps' checklist doesn't tag rookies, but the Cam Schlittler base card in Topps' preview carries the RC logo.
The KAWS cards:
- KAWS Creation, 25 cards of KAWS' takes on players, from Ohtani at KC-1 to Bryce Harper at KC-25. Derek Jeter is the one retired player among them.
- KAWS Companion short prints, 10 cards, SP-K1 to SP-K10, with no player on them. Topps' product page describes them as some of KAWS' most famous artwork.
- KAWS Companion SSP autographs, five cards, SSP-K11 to SSP-K15, each signed by KAWS.
The player autographs:
- Autographs, 41 cards numbered to match the base set, from Carlton Fisk (3-A) to Clayton Kershaw (60-A).
- On-Card Autographs, five cards: Ohtani, Judge, Jeter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.
Between them, 46 of the 60 base-set players sign. The 14 who don't include Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Cal Raleigh.
The base ladder
Topps' checklist, odds sheet and product page don't list print runs for this product. The runs below are the ones in our data, and the odds fit each of them, as the sections further down show. Odds are per pack:
| Parallel | Print run | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Unnumbered | - | 1:3 |
| Aqua | /199 | 1:5 |
| Blue | /150 | 1:7 |
| Green | /99 | 1:10 |
| Purple | /75 | 1:13 |
| Gold | /50 | 1:19 |
| Orange | /25 | 1:38 |
| Black | /10 | 1:93 |
| Red | /5 | 1:186 |
| FoilFractor | 1/1 | 1:916 |
At those runs, each base card has 614 numbered parallels.
The inserts and short prints
KAWS Creation falls 1:12 packs, about one every four boxes, and its only parallel on the sheet is a FoilFractor at 1:2,160. The KAWS Companion short prints fall 1:78, about one every 26 boxes, with a FoilFractor at 1:5,400. Neither has a color ladder.
The autographs
The sheet lists a single player autograph ladder, Base Autographs, with no unnumbered version, so every player autograph is a parallel. The runs below are the ones in our data. Odds per pack:
| Parallel | Print run | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | /50 | 1:73 |
| Orange | /25 | 1:95 |
| Black | /10 | 1:188 |
| Red | /5 | 1:260 |
| FoilFractor | 1/1 | 1:1,174 |
That one ladder covers both the 41 Autographs and the five On-Card Autographs. The FoilFractor line only works with 46 cards: 46 x 1,174 is 54,004, right on the pack count below, while 41 cards would put it at 1:1,318.
The KAWS autographs have their own three lines: Black at 1:5,400, Red at 1:10,800 and FoilFractor at 1:54,000. Like the player autographs, they have no unnumbered version on the sheet.
The serial numbers in Topps' preview images fit the one-per-card FoilFractor lines: a KAWS Creation Shohei Ohtani and an Aaron Judge on-card autograph, both numbered 1/1.
How many packs the sheet covers
The FoilFractor lines are the key, since a 1/1 line counts cards directly. Multiply a line's odds by its number of cards and its print run, and you get the pack count:
| Line | Cards | Print run | Odds | Cards x run x odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAWS Creation FoilFractor | 25 | 1/1 | 1:2,160 | 54,000 |
| KAWS Companion SP FoilFractor | 10 | 1/1 | 1:5,400 | 54,000 |
| Base Autographs FoilFractor | 46 | 1/1 | 1:1,174 | 54,004 |
| Base FoilFractor | 60 | 1/1 | 1:916 | 54,960 |
| Base Red | 60 | /5 | 1:186 | 55,800 |
| Base Black | 60 | /10 | 1:93 | 55,800 |
The KAWS Creation and Companion short print FoilFractors land exactly on 54,000, and the autograph FoilFractor lands within four packs of it. The KAWS autograph lines land on 54,000 too, but only as one ladder in total: 54,000 packs at 1:54,000 is one FoilFractor, at 1:10,800 five Reds, and at 1:5,400 ten Blacks. If each of the five KAWS cards had its own Black /10, that line would read 1:1,080.
This sheet rounds odds up. The base FoilFractor is 60 cards at 1:916, which multiplies to 54,960, not 54,000. At 54,000 packs, 59 FoilFractors works out to 1:915.25, and the sheet prints 1:916. Rounding to the nearest number would print 1:915, and no whole number of cards gets to 1:916 that way. Rounding up means every printed line is at least as long as the true odds, so the counts worked back from them are floors: at least that many, sometimes a few more. It also means the one-copy KAWS autograph FoilFractor caps the run. At 1:54,000 there can't be more than 54,000 packs, and one pack fewer would have printed as 1:53,999.
So the sheet covers 54,000 packs. At three packs a box, that's 18,000 hobby boxes and 216,000 cards. Topps doesn't give odds for the base cards themselves. The sheet's lines account for at least 58,360 of the 216,000 cards, which leaves room for at most about 157,600 base cards, about 2,600 of each of the 60.
Not every numbered card is in a pack
The base ladder comes in close to its runs. Here's what the odds put in packs at 54,000, against what the runs would make:
| Tier | Printed | In packs | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aqua /199 | 11,940 | 10,800 to 11,940 | 90% to 100% |
| Blue /150 | 9,000 | 7,715 to 8,999 | 86% to just under 100% |
| Green /99 | 5,940 | 5,400 to 5,940 | 91% to 100% |
| Purple /75 | 4,500 | 4,154 to 4,499 | 92% to just under 100% |
| Gold /50 | 3,000 | 2,843 to 2,999 | 95% to just under 100% |
| Orange /25 | 1,500 | 1,422 to 1,459 | 95% to 97% |
| Black /10 | 600 | 581 to 586 | 97% to 98% |
| Red /5 | 300 | 291 | 97% |
| FoilFractor 1/1 | 60 | 59 | 98% |
The odds also narrow each run. The Green line puts at least 90 of each card in packs, more than a /75 could hold. The Purple puts at least 69 of each, more than a /50. The Black lands between about 9.7 and 9.8 of each card, just under a /10. The odds put 59 base FoilFractors in packs, one fewer than the 60 base cards.
The player autographs are a different story. Counting all 46 signers:
| Tier | If every signer had the full run | In packs | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold /50 | 2,300 | 740 to 749 | about 32% |
| Orange /25 | 1,150 | 569 to 574 | about 50% |
| Black /10 | 460 | 288 | about 63% |
| Red /5 | 230 | 208 | about 90% |
| FoilFractor 1/1 | 46 | 46 | 100% |
The 1/1s are all there, one per signer, and the Reds come close. Below that the gap widens. On average the odds put about 16 Golds, about 12 Oranges and about six Blacks of each signer in packs. Topps' note on the sheet says a subject on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel, so not every signer may have every tier. Until Topps prints those runs, read the Gold, Orange and Black runs as ceilings.
The KAWS autographs come to 16 cards in all: 10 Blacks, five Reds and one FoilFractor, spread across five card numbers. Our data lists each of the five at /10, /5 and 1/1, which would make 80. The sheet supports one ladder's worth. Whether the five designs share one set of serial numbers, or only some designs come in each color, the sheet doesn't say.
The unnumbered cards
Using 54,000 packs, here's about how many of each are in packs:
| Card | Cards | Odds | In packs | Est. copies per card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base unnumbered parallel | 60 | 1:3 | 18,000 to 26,999 | about 300 to 450 |
| KAWS Creation | 25 | 1:12 | 4,500 to 4,909 | about 180 to 196 |
| KAWS Companion short prints | 10 | 1:78 | 693 to 701 | about 70 |
These are estimates, and they assume each card in a subset is printed in equal numbers. At about 70 copies of each design, a KAWS Companion short print is about as scarce as a base Purple /75, and a KAWS Creation card is about as common as a base Aqua /199. The 1:3 line is the loosest figure here, since with rounding up it covers anything from just over 1:2 to 1:3.
In all, the odds put at least 1,867 autographs in packs: 46 FoilFractors, 208 Reds, 288 Blacks, 569 to 574 Oranges and 740 to 749 Golds from the players, plus the 16 KAWS autographs. That's about one in every 29 packs, or about one every 9.6 boxes.
The rarest pulls
The toughest line on the sheet is the KAWS autograph FoilFractor at 1:54,000 packs, one copy in the whole run, or one in 18,000 boxes. Next is the KAWS autograph Red at 1:10,800, five copies, one in 3,600 boxes. Then two lines at 1:5,400, ten copies each: the KAWS autograph Black and the KAWS Companion short print FoilFractor. The KAWS Creation FoilFractor is 1:2,160, one copy for each of the 25 players.
Across the product there are 141 one-of-ones in packs: 59 base FoilFractors, 25 KAWS Creation, 10 Companion short prints, 46 player autographs and one KAWS autograph. That's about one every 383 packs, or about one every 128 boxes.
What to watch
MLB x KAWS shipped in early October. The things we're watching: Topps publishing print runs, the serial numbers on the KAWS autographs (whether the five designs share one Black, Red and FoilFractor run), serial numbers on the Gold, Orange and Black player autographs, and which other young players carry the RC logo. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.
The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2026 Topps MLB x KAWS release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.
This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.
Published: October 2026