2026 Topps Mars Attacks Christmas: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown

2026 Topps Mars Attacks Christmas released October 6, and Topps posted its current odds sheet the day before. It's a short sheet: one Hobby column, 70 lines, and no print runs. One card does most of the work. The Lump of Coal die cut is a set of one, and together with the one print run on Topps' product page, it pins the pack count at exactly 497,800. From there we can check the numbered parallels, estimate the cards that carry no serial number, and see how much of each ladder made it into packs.

The box

Topps sells it in one format, the hobby box: 10 packs of 5 cards, 20 boxes to a case. Each box has one box topper, either a Greeting Card or a Present Rip Card, and Topps lists two numbered parallels per box. Both the box and the case sold out on Topps' store.

The sheet doesn't say so, but the box toppers are the only lines that have to be read per box: the Greeting Card at 1:1 and the Present Rip Card at 1:5. Topps' listing says a box gets one or the other, so that's a Rip Card in about one box in five and a Greeting Card in the rest.

Inside the packs, the sheet's odds add up to about 1.45 cards a pack that aren't base cards, which leaves about 3.5 base cards in each 5-card pack. The numbered cards come to about 3.1 a box on average: about 2.9 from the base set (counting the Candy Cane at the sheet's 1:18, which doesn't add up, below) and about 0.25 from the inserts and hits. So Topps' two per box reads more like a minimum than an average.

The checklist

Not counting sketch cards, Topps' checklist runs 239 cards across 15 subsets.

The base set is 50 story cards: 49 that tell the invasion start to finish, from #1 Christmas Day Invasion to #49 A Christmas Miracle, plus a checklist at #50. Then come 25 characters, each in two versions: Characters A (A-51 to A-75) and Characters B (B-51 to B-75). The cast includes Santa Claus, Mrs. Claus, Krampus, Jack Frost, Bigfoot, the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny, the Giant Robot, the Giant Spider and the Martian King. That's 100 base cards in all, and the odds treat them as one set (more on that below).

The inserts:

• Battle Ready, 10 cards, from Santa Claus and Santa's Helpers to the UFO and Santa's Workshop.
• Headlines, 10 newspaper front pages, from Meteor Hits North Pole! to Victory For Earth!
• Cryptids Alliance, 10 cards: Santa Claus, Jack Frost, the Abominable Snowman, Bigfoot, the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny, Krampus, Cupid, the Gingerbread Man and the Leprechaun. The same 10 come again on Chrome as Cryptids Alliance Facsimile Autographs, with printed signatures.
• Caught in the Crossfire, 14 celebrities fighting off the invasion: Bootsy Collins, Bill Nye, Brent Spiner, Chuck Norris, Chris Parnell, Chris Ramsay, Dennis Rodman, George Noory, George Takei, Jeff Goldblum, Mark Rolston, Mike Tyson, Tony Hawk and Will Smith.
• Mars Invasion Chrome, 15 Martians, from Terran Squizzball to Big MackAckAck and Joe Terror. Topps says the design parodies Cosmic Chrome's Youth Invasion insert.
• Lump of Coal Die Cut, a single card.
• Present Mini Cards, 25 minis: 17 Mars Attacks comic covers, plus eight more titles like Ack View-Martian, Bezerka Bubble Gum and Milky Ray.

The box toppers are six Greeting Cards (Greetings From The North Pole, England, California, Egypt, Japan and New York) and five Present Rip Cards, named White, Blue, Green, Red and Pink.

The hits:

• Caught in the Crossfire Autographs, Chrome autographs of the same 14 celebrities, the only set Topps lists under autographs.
• Invasion Worn Relics, 19 cards with pieces of the battle: Santa's Suit, Santa's Hat, Elf's Socks, Reindeer Antler, Yeti Fur, Wrapping Paper, a Robot Arm, an Escape Pod and more. Martian Suit shows up twice, at IWR-5 and IWR-18.
• Sketch cards, from 77 artists on Topps' list.

A note on print runs

Topps' product page gives one print run for this set: the base Snowcaps, numbered to 5. Every other run in this piece is the one in our data, not a Topps figure. The serial numbers on the card images we've seen match several of them (Snowball Fight at 2/5, The Naughty List at 10/10, a Giant Robot Candy Cane at 001/299, a Headlines Christmas Invasion! at 01/99, a Battle Ready Santa's Helpers at 1/1, a Cryptids Alliance Facsimile Autographs Santa Claus at 2/5 and an Invasion Worn Relics Santa's Suit at 1/1), and the odds fit most of the rest, as the sections below show. Until Topps posts them, treat those runs as unconfirmed.

The base ladder

Odds are per pack:

These odds cover all 100 base cards, the 50 story cards and the 50 character cards, not just the story cards. The Candy Cane is the one open question.

The Candy Cane doesn't add up yet. Topps' product page puts the Candy Cane with the character cards, and the one we've seen, a Giant Robot, is numbered 001/299. But the sheet lists it under Base Cards at 1:18, and at 497,800 packs that's about 27,700 Candy Canes (somewhere between about 26,200 and 29,300, depending on which way Topps rounded that line). Fifty character cards at /299 come to 14,950 in all, so even with every one in packs they would fall no better than about 1:33. The 1:18 does fit /299 across all 100 base cards. So either the story cards have Candy Canes too, the character Candy Canes aren't all /299, or the 1:18 is off. We're treating that line as unsettled until a Candy Cane story card turns up or Topps revises the sheet.

The insert ladders

Odds per pack, with the runs in our data. "Base" is the set's own version with no parallel:

The Facsimile Autographs, Mars Invasion Chrome and the Lump of Coal share a shorter refractor ladder (runs again from our data):

The hits

Odds per pack, with the runs in our data:

Sketch cards fall 1:213 packs.

Topps' listing doesn't promise a hit in every box. In 10-pack boxes, an autograph comes about once every 10 boxes, or two a case. A relic comes about once every four boxes, five a case, and a sketch card about once every 21 boxes, just under one a case. That's about 0.4 hits a box on average, so at least six boxes in ten have no autograph, relic or sketch card.

How many packs the sheet covers

The Lump of Coal is the key. It's one card, and its three numbered lines are 1:497,800, 1:99,560 and 1:49,780. Those are the same number divided by 1, 5 and 10. So the pack count is 497,800 times the number of Lump of Coal SuperFractors: one copy in 497,800 packs, two in 995,600, and so on, with five and ten times as many Reds and Black Waves.

Topps' own Snowcaps run settles which. The base Snowcaps is numbered to 5 and Topps' checklist has 100 base cards, so at most 500 Snowcaps exist. At 1:1,043, 497,800 packs already hold about 477 of them. Twice the packs would need about 955. So it's one SuperFractor and 497,800 packs, which divide into exactly 49,780 boxes of 10 and exactly 2,489 cases of 20. That's 2,489,000 cards.

The rarest line in every other set agrees, if each set's top tier is a one-of-one, as our data lists it. Multiply the odds by the number of copies and you land back on the pack count:

The few packs of difference are Topps rounding the odds to a whole number. On this sheet the rounding doesn't always go the same way (some lines only fit rounding up, others only fit rounding down), so every count worked back from the odds is good to within about a copy on the small tiers, not exact.

That's also why the base ladder covers 100 cards. About 477 Snowcaps in packs, at five per card, means at least 96 different cards carry one. There are only 50 story cards, so the ladder has to run through the character cards too. The base FoilFractor says the same thing if it's a one-of-one, as our data lists it: 1:5,240 is 95 copies. Topps' product page calls the character cards "the extended base set," which fits.

Not every numbered card is in a pack

Using the runs in our data, here's how much of each run the odds put in packs:

Most numbered tiers come in at 94 to 96 percent of those runs, the same share across the base set and the inserts, from the /350 down to the /5. That steady share is the best sign the runs in our data are right. Nearly every top-tier card is in packs, and so is the whole Lump of Coal ladder.

Three spots run lower:

• The Caught in the Crossfire FoilFractor. The odds put 11 in packs. If it's a one-of-one like the other insert FoilFractors, which are all in, three of the 14 aren't in packs.
• The autograph Nucleus and Gold Refractors. Both come in at about 70 percent of the runs in our data, against 93 to 100 percent for the autograph Black Wave, Red and SuperFractor. That would fit about 10 of the 14 signers having those two versions, or runs shorter than /99 and /50. Topps hasn't said.
• The relic ladder. Each numbered relic tier comes in at 84 to 90 percent, while all 19 FoilFractors are in. Either a relic or two skips those tiers, or the runs are a little shorter than our data lists.

The sheet doesn't say what happens to the rest.

The unnumbered cards

The same pack count estimates the cards with no serial number: packs divided by odds, divided by the number of cards in the set. These are estimates:

The Facsimile Autographs base version is scarcer than it looks. Our data lists it without a serial number, but its 1:1,044 matches the Headlines and Cryptids Alliance Dotz (Battle Ready's is 1:1,043), so there are about as many of each Facsimile Autograph base card (about 48) as there are of each of those Dotz. The Mars Invasion Chrome base cards, at about 83 copies each, are scarcer per card than any of the four Rainbow /99 lines on the sheet, each of which puts about 94 or 95 of each card in packs.

The autographs come to just under 5,000 in all, about 237 base autographs per signer if Topps split them evenly. The sketch cards are one of a kind, and the odds put about 2,337 in packs, about 30 per artist on average. The Present Mini Cards get no estimate, since the sheet shows a dash instead of odds for them and for their Rainbow, Green, Red and Gold versions.

The base card figure assumes every slot the sheet doesn't cover is a base card and that the 100 base cards are seeded evenly. The Greeting Card figure assumes every box without a Rip Card has a Greeting Card. The 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 lines are the loosest, since a small number rounded to a whole one can hide a big difference. This sheet rounds most lines up. If the Red's 1:2 was rounded up, there are anywhere from about 2,500 to nearly 5,000 of each card; if it was rounded down, as few as about 1,700. The base card figure moves the opposite way.

The rarest pulls

The toughest line on the sheet is the Lump of Coal SuperFractor at 1:497,800 packs, one copy in all 49,780 boxes.

At 1:49,780 packs, about one in every 4,978 boxes, come the FoilFractors of Battle Ready, Headlines and Cryptids Alliance and the Facsimile Autographs SuperFractors, 10 of each. Next are the Caught in the Crossfire FoilFractor at 1:45,255 (11 in packs), the autograph SuperFractors at 1:35,557 (about one every 3,556 boxes), the Mars Invasion Chrome SuperFractors at 1:33,187 and the relic FoilFractors at 1:26,200. The base FoilFractor is 1:5,240, about one every 524 boxes.

Together, the FoilFractor and SuperFractor lines put 195 cards in packs, about one every 255 boxes.

What to watch

Mars Attacks Christmas released October 6. The things we're watching: Topps publishing the print runs, whether Candy Canes turn up on the 50 story cards or Topps revises the 1:18, odds for the Present Mini Cards (the sheet shows a dash for them and their Rainbow, Green, Red and Gold versions), and whether the three Caught in the Crossfire FoilFractors the odds leave out and the short autograph Nucleus and Gold lines trace to particular signers. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.

The full checklist and every parallel with its print run and odds are on the 2026 Topps Mars Attacks Christmas release page, and you can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.

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This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.

Published: October 2026