2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire Formula 1: The Complete Odds, Parallel, and Print Run Breakdown
2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire Formula 1 releases November 12 at 1pm ET. Topps' product page calls it 2026 Topps Chrome Formula 1 Sapphire Edition, and this week Topps added a checklist and an odds sheet to it. The sheet is short: 21 lines of odds and no print runs. Three of its lines agree on the count to within about 30 packs, and they put the product at about 102,170 packs, or 12,771 boxes. From there we can check every print run, count the cards that carry no number, and see which parallels were not made for every card. The odds, with the autograph runs in our data, say about 70 of the 100 autograph signers have a Gold, only one of the 11 Sapphire Selections Autographs has an Orange, and about eight of the 11 Infinite Sapphire one-of-ones are in packs.
The box
Topps' product page promises one autograph per box. It doesn't give the number of packs in a box or cards in a pack. Our data has the box at eight packs and the case at 10 boxes, and the odds back the eight: the 11 autograph lines on the sheet add up to one signed card every 7.8 packs.
The odds also point to four cards a pack. The base card falls 3:1, three to a pack, and every other line on the sheet adds about 0.52 cards a pack. In a four-card pack that leaves about 3.48 slots for the base card, which still prints as 3:1. A five-card pack would leave 4.48, which would print as 4:1. A three-card pack would leave 2.48, which would print as 2:1. So four cards a pack, 32 a box, is what the sheet fits if Topps rounds this line the way it rounds the others, but Topps has not stated it and we can't confirm it.
Here's what the odds come to in an average box:
| Line | Per box (8 packs) | About one box in |
|---|---|---|
| Sapphire base card | about 24 to 28 | - |
| Purple Sapphire | 1.14 | - |
| Gold Sapphire | 0.80 | 1.25 |
| White Sapphire | 0.47 | 2.1 |
| Orange Sapphire | 0.38 | 2.6 |
| Black Sapphire | 0.15 | 6.5 |
| Red Sapphire | 0.077 | 13 |
| Padparadscha Sapphire | 0.015 | 65 |
| Infinite Sapphire, any version | 0.10 | 10 |
| Chrome Autographs, any version | 1.01 | - |
| Sapphire Selections Autographs, any version | 0.015 | 67 |
The base parallels add up to about three a box. An Infinite Sapphire falls about once every 10 boxes, which is one a case.
The checklist
Not counting parallels, Topps' checklist runs 322 cards in four sets.
The base set is 200 cards, and Topps splits it into 12 groups:
- F1 Drivers, #1 to #22, from Lando Norris at #1 to Valtteri Bottas at #22.
- F2 Drivers, #23 to #44, F3 Drivers, #45 to #71, and F1 Academy Drivers, #72 to #88.
- F1 Cars, #89 to #110, one for each of the 22 drivers.
- Grand Prix Winners, #111 to #134, and Grand Prix Driver of the Day, #135 to #149.
- F1 Award Winners, #150 to #152.
- F1 Legends, #153 to #167, among them Juan Manuel Fangio, Michael Schumacher, Ayrton Senna, Alain Prost and James Hunt.
- F1 Duo Cards, #168 to #178, one pair of teammates for each of the 11 teams.
- F1 Team Logo Cards, #179 to #189, and F1 Team Principals, #190 to #200.
Topps tags one driver as a Rookie: Arvid Lindblad, on base cards #12 and #100 and on both of his autographs. It also tags 60 cards as a "1st", 34 in the base set (all 17 F1 Academy drivers among them) and 26 in the Chrome Autographs.
The one insert is Infinite Sapphire, 11 cards, one driver from each team: Oscar Piastri, George Russell, Isack Hadjar, Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz, Liam Lawson, Lance Stroll, Esteban Ocon, Gabriel Bortoleto, Pierre Gasly and Valtteri Bottas.
The autographs are 111 cards:
- Chrome Autographs, 100 cards: all 22 F1 drivers, 22 F2 drivers, 18 F3 drivers, the 11 team principals, 18 legends and nine F1 Academy drivers. The legends include Alain Prost, Mario Andretti, Jackie Stewart, Nigel Mansell, Damon Hill and Jacques Villeneuve. Emerson Fittipaldi is on the list twice, once as a legend and once with the F2 team AIX Racing.
- Sapphire Selections Autographs, 11 cards, the other driver from each team: Lando Norris, Kimi Antonelli, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, Alex Albon, Arvid Lindblad, Fernando Alonso, Oliver Bearman, Nico Hulkenberg, Franco Colapinto and Sergio Perez.
So between Infinite Sapphire and Sapphire Selections Autographs, each of the 22 drivers gets exactly one of the two.
The base ladder
Topps' product page lists the run for every base parallel. Odds per pack:
| Parallel | Print run | Odds | Run x odds x 200 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sapphire (base) | - | 3:1 | - |
| Purple Sapphire | /75 | 1:7 | 105,000 |
| Gold Sapphire | /50 | 1:10 | 100,000 |
| White Sapphire | /30 | 1:17 | 102,000 |
| Orange Sapphire | /25 | 1:21 | 105,000 |
| Black Sapphire | /10 | 1:52 | 104,000 |
| Red Sapphire | /5 | 1:104 | 104,000 |
| Padparadscha Sapphire | 1/1 | 1:521 | 104,200 |
Every tier is spread over the same 200 cards, so if the runs are right, run times odds times 200 should come out about the same on every line, and it does: 100,000 to 105,000. A wrong run would stick out. A Purple at /99 would come to 138,600, and a Black at /25 to 260,000.
The three scarcest tiers, the ones with the least rounding in them, all land at 104,000 to 104,200. That is about two percent above the pack count the autographs give (worked out below), which means about 98 percent of each base run is in packs. More on that below.
Each base card has seven numbered parallels, 196 numbered copies in all. A numbered base parallel of any color falls about once every 2.6 packs.
Infinite Sapphire
The sheet has two lines for the insert:
| Version | Print run | Odds | In packs, at 102,168 packs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Infinite Sapphire | - | 1:80 | about 1,277 |
| Padparadscha Sapphire | 1/1 | 1:12,580 | about 8 |
The base version comes to about 116 copies of each of the 11 cards. The Padparadscha doesn't fit 11 cards. Eleven one-of-ones would print about 1:9,288, the same odds the sheet gives the Sapphire Selections Autographs Padparadscha, which is also 11 one-of-ones. The sheet prints 1:12,580, which is about eight cards. More on that below.
The autographs
Topps prints no autograph runs on the sheet, the checklist or the product page, so the runs below are the ones in our data. Odds per pack:
| Version | Print run in our data | Chrome Autographs (100 cards) | Sapphire Selections Autographs (11 cards) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sapphire (base) | - | 1:29 | not on the sheet |
| Gold Sapphire | /50 | 1:29 | not on the sheet |
| White Sapphire | /30 | 1:44 | not on the sheet |
| Orange Sapphire | /25 | 1:52 | 1:4,087 |
| Black Sapphire | /10 | 1:102 | 1:1,022 |
| Red Sapphire | /5 | 1:206 | 1:1,858 |
| Padparadscha Sapphire | 1/1 | 1:1,022 | 1:9,288 |
Two things stand out. In the Chrome Autographs, the Gold /50 falls at the same odds as the base version, though a full run of each would be far apart. In the Sapphire Selections Autographs, the Orange /25 is four times harder to pull than the Black /10, and harder than the Red /5. Neither has to be a misprint. Both fit parallels that were not made for every card, and the pack count below shows how many cards each one would cover.
The sheet has no unnumbered, Gold or White line for Sapphire Selections Autographs, so we count only the four versions it lists.
A Chrome Autograph of some kind falls once every 7.9 packs, about one a box. A Sapphire Selections Autograph falls once every 535 packs, about one box in 67. In all, the odds put about 13,120 signed cards in packs, against 12,771 boxes, so Topps' one autograph per box holds with a little room to spare.
How many packs the sheet covers
The Padparadscha lines are the key. Each one counts one-of-ones, so the odds times the number of cards gives a pack count:
| Line | Cards | Odds | Cards x odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sapphire Selections Autographs Padparadscha | 11 | 1:9,288 | 102,168 |
| Chrome Autographs Padparadscha | 100 | 1:1,022 | 102,200 |
| Base Padparadscha | 200 | 1:521 | 104,200 |
| Infinite Sapphire Padparadscha | 11 | 1:12,580 | 138,380 |
The two signed lines agree. The 11-card line is the sharper of the two, because its odds are the longest: 11 cards at 1:9,288 means between 102,163 and 102,173 packs. The 100-card line agrees: 102,168 divided by 100 is 1,021.7, which prints as 1:1,022.
A third line confirms it. The Sapphire Selections Autographs Red /5 is 55 cards if all 11 exist, and 55 times its odds of 1:1,858 is 102,190. At 102,168 packs, 55 cards print as 1:1,858.
The base Padparadscha comes to 104,200, which means not all 200 are in packs. The Infinite Sapphire Padparadscha comes to 138,380, which no other line on the sheet comes close to. Both are covered below.
So the sheet covers about 102,170 packs. Every line on the sheet but the Infinite Sapphire Padparadscha lands on a whole number of cards anywhere from 102,163 to 102,173 packs, and 102,168 is the only count in that window that makes whole boxes of eight:
| Count | |
|---|---|
| Packs | about 102,170 (102,163 to 102,173) |
| Boxes, 8 packs each | about 12,771 |
| Cases, 10 boxes each | about 1,277 |
| Cards, if packs hold 4 | about 408,700 |
What the odds say about the print runs
Here's what the odds put in packs at 102,168 packs, against what the runs would print on 200 base cards. Each range covers every count that would still print the same odds:
| Base tier | Printed (200 cards) | In packs | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purple Sapphire /75 | 15,000 | 13,623 to 15,000 | 91 to 100% |
| Gold Sapphire /50 | 10,000 | 9,731 to 10,000 | 97 to 100% |
| White Sapphire /30 | 6,000 | 5,839 to 6,000 | 97 to 100% |
| Orange Sapphire /25 | 5,000 | 4,753 to 4,983 | 95 to 99.7% |
| Black Sapphire /10 | 2,000 | 1,947 to 1,983 | 97 to 99% |
| Red Sapphire /5 | 1,000 | 978 to 987 | 98 to 99% |
| Padparadscha Sapphire 1/1 | 200 | 196 | 98% |
The base runs fit the odds, with about two percent held out of packs. The Padparadscha line is the tightest: at our pack count it means 196 of the 200 are in packs. One share fits every other tier too. At 98 percent, the seven tiers would put 14,700, 9,800, 5,880, 4,900, 1,960, 980 and 196 cards in packs, and every one of those prints the odds on the sheet. Topps' note on the sheet says a subject on the checklist isn't guaranteed to appear in every parallel, which could account for four cards' worth of each tier.
The Chrome Autographs split in two. The Padparadscha and the Black cover all 100 signers, and the Red comes within one signer of it. The three most common do not:
| Chrome Autographs tier | In packs | Run in our data | Signers that covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padparadscha Sapphire | 100 | 1/1 | 100 |
| Red Sapphire | 495 to 497 | /5 | 99 (a full 500 would print 1:204) |
| Black Sapphire | 997 to 1,006 | /10 | 100 |
| Orange Sapphire | 1,947 to 1,983 | /25 | 78 or 79 |
| White Sapphire | 2,296 to 2,348 | /30 | 77 or 78 |
| Gold Sapphire | 3,464 to 3,584 | /50 | 70 or 71 |
If all 100 signers had a Gold /50, the line would print about 1:20. It prints 1:29, which is about 3,520 cards, the Gold of 70 or 71 signers. The same sum puts the White /30 on 77 or 78 signers and the Orange /25 on 78 or 79. So if those runs are right, at least 29 of the 100 signers skip at least one of those three colors. The sheet doesn't say which ones.
The Sapphire Selections Autographs lines are exact. At 102,168 packs the four lines come to whole cards with nothing left over:
| Sapphire Selections Autographs tier | In packs | Run in our data | Cards that covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padparadscha Sapphire | 11 | 1/1 | 11 of 11 |
| Red Sapphire | 55 | /5 | 11 of 11 |
| Black Sapphire | 100 | /10 | 10 of 11 |
| Orange Sapphire | 25 | /25 | 1 of 11 |
That is why the sheet looks upside down. The Orange /25 is the hardest of the four to pull because there are only 25 of them in the whole product, the run of a single card. The Black /10 is the easiest because 10 of the 11 drivers have one. Swapping the two lines doesn't work: 100 Oranges would be four cards' worth, but 25 Blacks would be two and a half. One reading that fits is that 10 drivers have a Black and the 11th has the Orange in its place, but the sheet can't tell us that, or which driver the Orange belongs to. In all, the odds put 191 Sapphire Selections Autographs in packs.
The Infinite Sapphire Padparadscha line is about three cards short. Eleven of them would print 1:9,288. The sheet prints 1:12,580, which is 8.1 cards at our pack count. Eight would print 1:12,771 and nine would print 1:11,352, so the line doesn't land on a whole card, but eight is the closest. Either only about eight of the 11 are in packs, or the line is off.
The cards with no print run
Three lines on the sheet are for cards with no print run. Using 102,168 packs:
| Card | Cards | Odds | In packs | Copies of each card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sapphire base | 200 | 3:1 | about 306,500 to 355,400 | about 1,530 to 1,780 |
| Infinite Sapphire | 11 | 1:80 | about 1,277 (1,270 to 1,285) | about 116 |
| Chrome Autographs Sapphire (base) | 100 | 1:29 | about 3,520 (3,464 to 3,584) | about 35, if all 100 signers have one |
The base card falls 3:1. Taken at face value that's three a pack, about 306,500 cards, about 1,530 of each. That is the face-value figure, not a floor, since 3:1 is rounded. If packs hold four cards, the other lines leave about 3.48 slots a pack for the base card, which is at most about 355,400 cards, about 1,780 of each. Without a confirmed pack size we can't narrow it further.
The Infinite Sapphire comes to about 116 of each card, more than a Purple /75 and a little fewer than a Purple /75 and a Gold /50 put together.
The base Chrome Autograph comes to about 35 of each signer if every signer has one. That is a big if, since the Gold, White and Orange each skip about 21 to 30 signers. If the base version skips signers too, there are more than 35 of each one that has it. Either way there are about 3,520 base autographs in packs, the same number as the Gold.
The rarest pulls
The toughest line on the sheet is the Infinite Sapphire Padparadscha at 1:12,580 packs, about one in 1,570 boxes, with about eight in packs.
Next are three of the four Sapphire Selections Autographs lines: the Padparadscha at 1:9,288 (about one in 1,160 boxes, 11 cards), the Orange /25 at 1:4,087 (about one in 511 boxes, 25 cards) and the Red /5 at 1:1,858 (about one in 230 boxes, 55 cards). After that come the Sapphire Selections Autographs Black /10 and the Chrome Autographs Padparadscha, both at 1:1,022, about one in 128 boxes, and the base Padparadscha at 1:521, about one in 65 boxes.
If every Padparadscha exists, the product has 322 one-of-ones: 200 base, 11 Infinite Sapphire, 100 Chrome Autographs and 11 Sapphire Selections Autographs. The odds put about 315 of them in packs, about one every 324 packs, or one every 40 to 41 boxes.
What to watch
The things we're watching: which Sapphire Selections Autographs driver has the Orange /25, and which one, if any, has no Black /10; which Chrome Autographs signers have no Gold, White or Orange; serial numbers on the autograph parallels, the runs Topps has not printed anywhere; whether the base Chrome Autograph or the Infinite Sapphire carries a number; whether three Infinite Sapphire Padparadschas turn up outside packs; and the pack size, once boxes are open. We'll update this piece if any of that changes.
The full checklist and every parallel with its odds and print run are on the 2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire Formula 1 release page. The page lists each duo card once per driver, so its card count runs higher than Topps' 322. You can track what you pull in HobbyMonitor Collections.
This is not financial advice. These are cards. The data and analysis are here to inform. You make your own calls.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed before publishing. Always verify latest market data, stats, or news.
Published: November 2026